Predicting users' next location/place allows us to anticipate their future movement. It provides additional time to be ready for that movement and react consequently. Furthermore, many industries, including Internet Service Providers, are still requiring low cost and simple location/place prediction methods that can be implemented on mobile device. This paper studies domain-independent prediction algorithms and spatiotemporal based prediction method using 20-day-long records in Long Term-Evolution(LTE) network, which captures the mobility patterns of 3474 individuals. After examining the prediction accuracy and resource consumption of domain-independent prediction algorithms, we find Markov provides the best tradeoff. Furthermore, Active LeZi outperforms Markov if enough consecutive parsed patterns of users' history movement are captured. In addition, we further group users according to their spatio-temporal entropy profiles in order to predict not only user's future locations but also the place he or she most likely to appear within a specific period. By applying the simple spatio-temporal based method to each group of user, 83.3% accuracy can be achieved for some users. Yet Markov and Active LeZi algorithms perform better for some other users. This implies that we should consider applying different prediction methods to users with distinct spatio-temporal characteristics.
RELATED WORKIndividuals display significant regularity, as they tend to visit a few highly frequented locations, like home or office. Numerous studies show that people's movement trajectory is far from random. By measuring the entropy of each individual's trajectory, [1] achieved 93% potential predictability in user mobility. When considering both the frequencies and temporal correlations of individual movements, the theoretical maximum predictability can reach 88% [2].Previous studies regarding location prediction include several models and methods. The usage of well-known mobility models was originally applied in the area of location predication [3,4], like Bayesian approaches [5-7], neural networks [8], Hidden Markov models [9], Markov models [10] and compression algorithms [11-13]. In addition, some recently proposed new algorithms [14, 15] and frames [16-18] all presented very good results.Recently, regarding the location prediction, scholars start to consider many other factors that could influence the prediction results, like spatial context [4], temporal factors [19,20], spatio-temporal factors [21,22] and even demographics (such as gender and age) [23].