Study of the Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality in the Upstream Portion of the Cau River Basin, Vietnam

Abstract

This paper presents simulations of climate change impacts on water quality in the upstream portion of the Cau River Basin in the North of Vietnam. The integrated modeling system GIBSI was used to simulate hydrological processes, pollutant and sediment wash-off in the river basin, and pollutant transport and transformation in the river network. Three projections for climate change based on emission scenarios B1, B2, and A2 of IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were considered. By assuming that the input pollution sources and watershed configuration were constant, based on 2008 data, water quality in the river network was simulated up to the terminal year 2050. For each climate change scenario, patterns of precipitation in wet and dry year were considered. The change in annual and monthly trends for dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and ammonium ions (NH4+) load and concentration for different portions of the watershed have been analyzed. The results of these simulations show that climate change has more impact on changing the seasonal water quality parameters than on altering the average annual load of the pollutants. The percent change and change pattern in water quality parameters are different for wet and dry year, and the changes in wet year are smaller than those in dry year.

A systems approach toward climate resilient livelihoods: A case study in Thai Nguyen province, Vietnam

“…These findings are consistent with results from previous studies in Thai Nguyen (e.g. Hien et al., 2016 ; Hong and Yabe, 2017 ; Thai et al., 2017 ). Hien et al.…”

“… Hien et al., 2016 ; Hong and Yabe, 2017 ; Thai et al., 2017 ). Hien et al. (2016) projected more heavy rainfall during rainy seasons.…”

“…There are two distinctive seasons, namely, hot and rainy (May–October) and cool and dry (November–April) seasons. The rainfall is between 1,400 and 2,700mm ( Hien et al., 2016 ), in which rainfall in the rainy season contributes to 75–80% of the total annual precipitation. July and August have the highest precipitation rate with over 300 mm/month ( Thai et al., 2017 ).…”

“…Hien et al, 2016;Hong and Yabe, 2017;Thai et al, 2017). Hien et al (2016) projected more heavy rainfall during rainy seasons. Particularly, the maximum change of rainfall in July will be 10.6% in 2050, while the precipitation between January-March will decrease by up to 20% by 2050.…”

Integrated Environmental Modelling Framework for Cumulative Effects Assessment

“…Wang et al, 2013). Thereafter, integrated modelling systems at various levels of sophistication have been developed where atmospheric deposition, climate and land use changes, and interactions between surface water, groundwater, and water resource management are considered in modelling to evaluate their impacts on water quality (Burian et al, 2002;Hesse & Krysanova, 2016;Hien et al, 2015;Panagopoulos et al, 2015;Wellen, Kamran-Disfani, & Arhonditsis, 2015). Water quality models are effective tools to simulate and predict the transport and fate of pollutants in aquatic environments and support environmental impact assessment and planning.…”