Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part II: Model application and results

Zhou, Zhengyin; Wang, Xiaoling; Sun, Ren; Ao, Xuefei; Sun, Xiaopei; Song, Mingrui

doi:10.1007/s11069-013-1029-8

Cited by 30 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…In this regard, it is worth noting that several papers evaluate the vulnerability, hazard, and risk simultaneously (e.g. Lee and Chung, 2007;Zou et al, 2013;Wu et al, 2015). Few papers used MCDM as a decision support tool in reservoir flood control and emergency management problems.…”

Section: Trends By Area Of Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

Brito

Evers

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

291

102

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Abstract. This paper provides a review of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. A total of 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of applications were identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation, followed by risk, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most popular method, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest in MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and was seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Therefore, addressing the uncertainties around stakeholders' judgments and endorsing an active participation in all steps of the decision-making process should be explored in future applications. This could help to increase the quality of decisions and the implementation of chosen measures.

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Section: Trends By Area Of Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

Brito

Evers

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

291

102

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Once the dam collapses, the impact on life loss in the downstream area cannot be accurately estimated [22]. Based on the disaster system theory, the seriousness of life loss caused by a dam-break is the result of a combination of the risk of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability factors [23,24]. This manuscript is a risk pre-evaluation under the assumption that the dam has already broken; therefore when analyzing the hazardous factors affecting the risk of life loss, the upstream hydrological or engineering safety situation is no longer taken into consideration.…”

Section: Evaluation Indicator System Of Life Loss Caused By Dam-breakmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Evaluation Model of Life Loss Caused by Dam-Break Flood and Its Application

et al. 2019

Water

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The internal mechanism affecting life loss caused by a dam-break flood is complicated. On the basis of analyzing the risk formation path, a risk evaluation indicator system was established which included the hazards, exposure and vulnerability factors. Variable Fuzzy Sets theory was introduced into the risk evaluation of life loss risk grades and applied to eight collapsed dams in China. According to the sequence of the risk grades of these dams, the evaluation result was mainly consistent with the actual mortality ranking sequence, showing that the model could be effectively applied to the risk evaluation of life loss in dam-break events. Aimed at the problem of large differences in the downstream population distribution of dams in China, this manuscript suggested that 10,000 people should be the basis for the grouping operation of dams in the risk evaluation. These Variable Fuzzy evaluation models and grouping suggestions could help stakeholders to allocate the funds for dam reinforcement more accurately and provide a scientific basis for the study of dam-break life loss and dam risk management.

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“…A scientific and reasonable evaluation index system is the guarantee for accurate risk assessment of dam failure, and the evaluation result is helpful for later research. Influencing factors of dam break risk consequences are many and complicated in both quality and quantity, direct and indirect contribution, and natural and social effects (Zhou et al, 2014). We choose representative indicators as much as possible to reduce the mutual influence and derivative of the indicators.…”

Section: Risk Index Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weight analysis of influencing factors of dam break risk consequences

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. There are numerous influencing factors of the risk consequences of dam break. The scientific and reasonable index system and its weight distribution are some of the key elements for comprehensive evaluation of the dam break risk. Taking into consideration 20 factors, including hazards, exposure and vulnerability, the evaluation index system of the consequences of dam break risk is constructed. Using the Statistical Cloud Model (SCM) to improve the entropy method, we establish the weight calculation model of the influencing factors of dam break risk consequences. The results shows that the top five factors with the highest weight are risk population, flood intensity, alert time, risk understanding and distance from the dam. Compared to traditional algebraic weight calculation methods, the result is basically consistent with the algebraic weight distribution, and increases the range by 2.03 times, supporting a more scientific basis for recognizing and evaluating dam break risk consequences.

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Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part II: Model application and results

Cited by 30 publications

References 11 publications

Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

Risk Evaluation Model of Life Loss Caused by Dam-Break Flood and Its Application

Weight analysis of influencing factors of dam break risk consequences

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