Supply chain performance and economic growth: The impact of COVID-19 disruptions

Goel, Rajeev K.; Saunoris, James W.; Goel, Srishti

doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.01.003

Cited by 135 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Our results comparing this activity topic in the year previous to the pandemic and the year of the pandemic show that Santiago citizens have changed their behaviors according to the lockdown and curfew policies. Though there is some literature on the disruption of supply chains due to COVID-19 [36], the impact on healthcare [37], forest degradation [38], the economic impact in African countries (e.g., the impact on cattle exports) [39], and on residents of some cities [40], there is little regarding the evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on the people that work in the leisure/commerce sector in developed countries, except for some high-level analysis at the corporate level [41,42]. However, there is a large percentage of the labor force enrolled in the leisure and hospitality sector (i.e., more than 13 million employees in March 2021 in the US, according to workforce statistics https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag70.htm#iag70emp1 .f.p (accessed on 20 May 2021)) that may fall into poverty with ensuing systemic health critical issues.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-Intrusive Assessment of COVID-19 Lockdown Follow-Up and Impact Using Credit Card Information: Case Study in Chile

Muñoz-Cancino

Ríos

Goić

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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In this paper, we propose and validate with data extracted from the city of Santiago, capital of Chile, a methodology to assess the actual impact of lockdown measures based on the anonymized and geolocated data from credit card transactions. Using unsupervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) semantic topic discovery, we identify temporal patterns in the use of credit cards that allow us to quantitatively assess the changes in the behavior of the people under the lockdown measures because of the COVID-19 pandemic. An unsupervised latent topic analysis uncovers the main patterns of credit card transaction activity that explain the behavior of the inhabitants of Santiago City. The approach is non-intrusive because it does not require the collaboration of people for providing the anonymous data. It does not interfere with the actual behavior of the people in the city; hence, it does not introduce any bias. We identify a strong downturn of the economic activity as measured by credit card transactions (down to 70%), and thus of the economic activity, in city sections (communes) that were subjected to lockdown versus communes without lockdown. This change in behavior is confirmed by independent data from mobile phone connectivity. The reduction of activity emerges before the actual lockdowns were enforced, suggesting that the population was spontaneously implementing the required measures for slowing virus propagation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-Intrusive Assessment of COVID-19 Lockdown Follow-Up and Impact Using Credit Card Information: Case Study in Chile

Muñoz-Cancino

Ríos

Goić

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…To see the market equilibrium and possibly compare equilibrium prices under different demand conditions, we assume an inelastic supply of masks, such that Q s = Z , s = 1, 2, 3, where Z is a positive constant. This assumption on supply makes sense in the short term, especially given the supply chain/international tariffs issues and the resurgent cases of coronavirus infections (Goel et al, 2021; Haruna & Goel, 2016; Hufford & Evans, 2020; Zhang et al., 2020). This consideration also enables us to focus on the relative effects of different demand formulations.…”

Section: Market Equilibriummentioning

confidence: 99%

Unmasking the demand for masks: Analytics of mandating coronavirus masks

Goel

Haruna

2021

Metroeconomica

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This paper analytically examines the demand for surgical masks following the recent health precautions due to coronavirus. Using a simple linear demand curve and alternatively examining the impacts of requirements that mandate (a) the wearing of masks by frontline workers; (b) suggested but not required masking by the whole public; and (c) compulsory masking by the whole public. The impacts of the different scenarios on the price elasticity of demand are determined along with the slope (or the rate of change) of elasticity. Some of these results differ when a non‐linear demand curve is considered instead. The equilibrium mask prices increase when masks are universally mandated, whereas the consumer surplus is higher when masks are recommended but not mandated. However, the ranking of consumer surplus is shown to be sensitive to the supply elasticity of masks. These considerations enable a structured means to view the demand implications of masking requirements and provide some food for policy thought.

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“…For government policies during the epidemic, most countries adopted measures such as restricting population movement and maintaining social distance, which helped to control the epidemic but also led to stagnant business production, declining household income, food shortages in some countries ( 24 ), and even triggered inflation, financial risks, and local economic crises ( 25 , 26 ). In China, Covid-19 is a major epidemic in the country in the last decade.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Government Epidemic Prevention and Economic Growth Path Under Public Health Emergency: Theoretical Model and Simulation Analysis

Yin

Xiao-xu

Wang

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

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This paper constructs a partial equilibrium model under public health emergency shocks based on economic growth theory, and investigates the relationship between government intervention and virus transmission and economic growth path. We found that both close contacts tracing measures and isolation measures are beneficial to human capital stock and economic output per capita, and the effect of close contact tracing measures is better than that of isolation measures. For infectious diseases of different intensities, economic growth pathways differed across interventions. For low contagious public health emergencies, the focus should be on the coordination of isolation and tracing measures. For highly contagious public health emergencies, strict isolation, and tracing measures have limited effect in repairing the negative economic impact of the outbreak. The theoretical model provides a basic paradigm for the future researches to study economic growth under health emergencies, with good scalability and robustness.

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Supply chain performance and economic growth: The impact of COVID-19 disruptions

Cited by 135 publications

References 28 publications

Non-Intrusive Assessment of COVID-19 Lockdown Follow-Up and Impact Using Credit Card Information: Case Study in Chile

Non-Intrusive Assessment of COVID-19 Lockdown Follow-Up and Impact Using Credit Card Information: Case Study in Chile

Unmasking the demand for masks: Analytics of mandating coronavirus masks

Government Epidemic Prevention and Economic Growth Path Under Public Health Emergency: Theoretical Model and Simulation Analysis

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