Sustainable economic growth and unemployment nexus of SDG 2030: Bangladesh in Asia

Siddikee, Md. Noman; Zahid, Jawadur Rahim; Sanjida, Athya; Oshchepkova, Polina

doi:10.1007/s43546-021-00190-2

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Goal 8 of the Sustainable Development Agenda seeks to foster worldwide inclusive and sustainable economic growth, employment, and decent work opportunities (Siddikee et al, 2022) suggest that as long-term economic growth increases, unemployment rates decrease. Global trends indicate rising labor productivity and declining unemployment rates, with projections estimating 192 million unemployed individuals worldwide in 2022, decreasing to 191 million by 2023 (United Nations, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Unemployment Rate in the Philippines using Box-Jenkins Methodology: Advancing Economic Strategies for Sustainable Development Goals

Pono

2024

BF-BAIIJ

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Unemployment remains a critical macroeconomic issue in Southeast Asia, significantly impacting the Philippines. This study aims to forecast the unemployment rate in the Philippines using ARIMA models to inform policy decisions and economic planning. The study utilized ARMA model for time series forecasting, leveraging past values and error terms to predict future data points. The methodology involved identifying suitable models through stationarity tests and autocorrelation analyses, estimating model parameters, and conducting diagnostic checks to ensure accuracy. Finally, the models were used to forecast future values and compute confidence intervals, providing insights into potential future trends. Monthly unemployment data from 2019 to 2023 was analyzed using the ARIMA (1,1,0) model, selected for its optimal fit based on statistical criteria. Initial findings indicated non-stationary unemployment data, necessitating first differencing to achieve stationarity. The ARIMA (1,1,0) model showed robustness, evidenced by diagnostic checks and Portmanteau test results confirming white noise residuals. Forecasts from 2024 to 2050 suggest fluctuating unemployment rates until 2034, followed by a gradual decline, indicating potential economic growth and improved labor market conditions. These forecasts align with the broader goal of sustainable economic development and highlight the importance of strategic policy interventions to foster job creation and economic stability in the Philippines. The study highlights the efficacy of ARIMA models in capturing unemployment trends and aiding policymakers in mitigating the socio-economic impacts of unemployment.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Unemployment Rate in the Philippines using Box-Jenkins Methodology: Advancing Economic Strategies for Sustainable Development Goals

Pono

2024

BF-BAIIJ

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“…From a sustainability viewpoint, only when output growth exceeds the economy's aggregate productivity of human capital can it decrease the unemployment rate. As a result, growth moves closer to sustainability if the gradual economic growth promotes a rapid decline in unemployment [13]. Again, such a theoretical expectation is disrupted by the consequences of prolonged civil wars in a country.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the Consequences of Long-Run Civil War on Unemployment Rate: Empirical Evidence from Afghanistan

2023

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This article aims to uncover the asymmetric labor-market consequences of the long-run civil war in Afghanistan by employing a non-linear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model and an asymmetric causality technique over the period from 2004Q3 to 2020Q4. The findings from the NARDL model reveal that the positive asymmetric shocks from the cost of war, GDP growth, final government expenditure, foreign direct investment, and the rule of law significantly decrease the unemployment rate, while their negative asymmetric shocks increase the unemployment rate in the short and long runs. Innovatively, the composite financial inclusion index has been incorporated into the model, which provides interesting results. It demonstrates that enhancing the outreach of financial services plays an important role in reducing the unemployment rate during wartime in Afghanistan, while its exclusion is found to increase the unemployment rate both in the short and long runs. Moreover, the results of the asymmetric causality test reveal that an asymmetric causality runs from both the positive and negative components of the cost of war, the composite financial inclusion index, GDP growth, foreign direct investment, inflation rate, population growth, and the rule of law to the unemployment rate, while no evidence is found to support a causality nexus between the unemployment rate, final government expenditure, and the secondary school enrollment rate. The results entail several policy implications that are discussed.

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Impact-Relation Map of Innovative Service Development Regarding the Sustainable Growth for Emerging Markets

2022

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This paper introduces a tool for new service development in the context of emerging economies. For this aim, two-stage decision making model is applied for measuring the new service development-enhanced sustainable growth of emerging economies. At the first stage, bipolar q-ROF M-SWARA with golden cut is used for weighting the new service development process. At the second stage, bipolar q-ROF ELECTRE with golden cut is employed for illustrating the impact-relation map of sustainable growth determinants with respect to the new service development process for emerging economies. The novelties of this study are to construct a novel decision-making approach by using the bipolar q-ROFSs and golden cut and to figure out the influencing degrees and directions of sustainable growth determinants for emerging economies. It is also determined that testing has the highest significance while creating a new service for sustainable growth. Ranking results also demonstrate that qualified organizational teams and equipment is the most critical factor regarding innovative service process-based sustainable growth. It is necessary to adapt current technological developments to new products to be developed for sustainable growth. In this context, technological advances for these products should be followed carefully. In this process, it would be appropriate for companies to reach this goal by employing qualified personnel.

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Sustainable economic growth and unemployment nexus of SDG 2030: Bangladesh in Asia

Cited by 8 publications

References 9 publications

Forecasting the Unemployment Rate in the Philippines using Box-Jenkins Methodology: Advancing Economic Strategies for Sustainable Development Goals

Forecasting the Unemployment Rate in the Philippines using Box-Jenkins Methodology: Advancing Economic Strategies for Sustainable Development Goals

Analyzing the Consequences of Long-Run Civil War on Unemployment Rate: Empirical Evidence from Afghanistan

Impact-Relation Map of Innovative Service Development Regarding the Sustainable Growth for Emerging Markets

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