Synoptic control on snow avalanche activity in central Spitsbergen

Hancock, Holt; Hendrikx, Jordy; Eckerstorfer, Markus; Wickström, Siiri

doi:10.5194/tc-15-3813-2021

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Previous work in North America (Schauer et al, 2021), Northern Europe (Hancock et al, 2021;Fitzharris and Bakkehøi, 1986) and the Alps (Jomelli et al, 2007) has shown the potential of investigating precursor meteorological data for avalanche prediction using avalanche databases. In HMA such forecasting only exists in the Indian Western Himalaya as of yet.…”

Section: Avalanche Incidents and Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

Acharya

Steiner

Walizada

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. The cryosphere in high mountain Asia (HMA) not only sustains livelihoods of people residing downstream through its capacity to store water but also holds potential for hazards. One of these hazards, avalanches, so far remains poorly studied as the complex relationship between climate and potential triggers is poorly understood due to lack of long-term observations, inaccessibility, severe weather conditions, and financial and logistic constraints. In this study, available literature was reviewed covering the period from the late 20th century to June 2022 to identify research and societal gaps and propose future directions of research and mitigation strategies. Beyond scientific literature, technical reports, newspapers, social media and other local sources were consulted to compile a comprehensive, open access and version controlled database of avalanche events and their associated impacts. Over 681 avalanches with more than 3131 human fatalities were identified in eight countries of the region. Afghanistan has the highest recorded avalanche fatalities (1057) followed by India (952) and Nepal (508). Additionally, 564 people lost their lives while climbing peaks above 4500 m a.s.l., one third of which were staff employed as guides or porters. This makes it a less deadly hazard than in the less populated European Alps for example, but with a considerably larger number of people affected who did not voluntarily expose themselves to avalanche risk. Although fatalities are significant, and local long-term impacts of avalanches may be considerable, so far, limited holistic adaptation or mitigation measures exist in the region. These measures generally rely on local and indigenous knowledge adapted with modern technologies. Considering the high impact avalanches have in the region we suggest to further develop adaptation measures including hazard zonation maps based on datasets of historic events and modelling efforts. This should however happen acknowledging the already existing knowledge in the region and in close coordination with communities and local government and civil society stakeholders. More research studies should also be attempted to understand trends and drivers of avalanches in the region.

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Section: Avalanche Incidents and Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

Acharya

Steiner

Walizada

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Previous work in North America (Schauer et al, 2021), northern Europe (Hancock et al, 2021;Fitzharris and Bakkehøi, 1986) and the Alps (Jomelli et al, 2007) has shown the potential of investigating precursor meteorological data for avalanche prediction using avalanche databases. In HMA, such forecasting only exists in the Indian western Himalaya as of yet.…”

Section: Avalanche Incidents and Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

Acharya¹,

Steiner²,

Walizada³

et al. 2023

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The cryosphere in high mountain Asia (HMA) not only sustains the livelihoods of people residing downstream through its capacity to store water but also holds the potential for hazards. One of these hazards, avalanches, so far remains inadequately studied, as the complex relationship between climate and potential triggers is poorly understood due to lack of long-term observations, inaccessibility, severe weather conditions, and financial and logistical constraints. In this study, the available literature was reviewed covering the period from the late 20th century to June 2022 to identify research and societal gaps and propose future directions of research and mitigation strategies. Beyond scientific literature, technical reports, newspapers, social media and other local sources were consulted to compile a comprehensive, open-access and version-controlled database of avalanche events and their associated impacts. Over 681 avalanches with more than 3131 human fatalities were identified in eight countries of the region. Afghanistan has the highest recorded avalanche fatalities (1057), followed by India (952) and Nepal (508). Additionally, 564 people lost their lives while climbing peaks above 4500 m a.s.l., one-third of which were staff employed as guides or porters. This makes it a less deadly hazard than in the less populated European Alps, for example, but with a considerably larger number of people affected who did not voluntarily expose themselves to avalanche risk. Although fatalities are significant, and local long-term impacts of avalanches may be considerable, so far, limited holistic adaptation or mitigation measures exist in the region. These measures generally rely on local and indigenous knowledge adapted to modern technologies. Considering the high impact avalanches have in the region, we suggest to further develop adaptation measures including hazard zonation maps based on datasets of historic events and modelling efforts. This should, however, happen acknowledging the already existing knowledge in the region and in close coordination with communities, local government and civil society stakeholders. More research studies should also be attempted to understand the trends and drivers of avalanches in the region.

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“…Snow hazards are mainly avalanches and seasonal floods (freshets) derived from rapid snowmelt (Table 2). Avalanches have been examined in many studies in terms of their locations, frequency, and relationships to synoptic climate (Bellaire et al, 2016; Hancock et al, 2021). Avalanche risk under climate change has also been evaluated (Ballesteros‐Cánovas et al, 2018; Beniston et al, 2003; Castebrunet et al, 2014; Höller, 2009; Lazar & Williams, 2008).…”

Section: Hazard Responses To the Changing Mountain Cryospherementioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is therefore the interplay between temperature and precipitation conditions, and their seasonal variations, that determines avalanche response, and this introduces uncertainty into snowpack and avalanche prediction models under climate change (Schmucki et al, 2015). Higher wind speeds can also increase avalanche frequency (Hancock et al, 2021) via snowblow processes, and this may be difficult to predict from RCMs run over complex mountainous terrain. Spatial and temporal variations in snow patterns and thickness also have implications for the volume and timing of snowmelt (and glacier melt) contributions to mountain rivers, and this contribution can vary widely, even between adjacent catchments (e.g., Juen et al, 2007; Kure et al, 2013; Qazi et al, 2020).…”

Section: Hazard Responses To the Changing Mountain Cryospherementioning

confidence: 99%

The sensitivity and evolutionary trajectory of the mountain cryosphere: Implications for mountain geomorphic systems and hazards

Knight

Harrison

2023

Land Degrad Dev

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Global climate change gives rise to changing spatial patterns of snow and ice, especially over mountain blocks where orographic and synoptic circulation effects play significant roles in creating patterns of precipitation and glacier development. The presence of snow and ice results in heat balance changes and other land surface feedbacks that have implications for patterns of mountain glacier retreat and the dynamics of mountain geomorphic systems. This study considers the sensitivity of the mountain cryosphere (snow, ice, permafrost) to global climate change, and the implications of this sensitivity analysis for evaluating mountain surface stability, geomorphic change, and the generation of mountain geohazards. Consideration of these issues is informed by evidence from case studies reported in the literature and by field observations of mountain system dynamics worldwide. Results show that ‘sensitivity’ to climate forcing has been interpreted and defined in different ways in mountain snow, ice, and permafrost systems, with respect to properties such as albedo, mass balance or rapidity of system change. There are also significant spatial differences in sensitivity between different mountain blocks for snow, ice and permafrost, and these regions are therefore likely to follow different trajectories of geomorphic change in response to climate forcing, related to their physiographic properties and the extent of cryospheric coverage. Within glaciated mountains in particular, the relative timing of different geomorphic events, and the interplay between slope, glacier front, and proglacial sediment sources and environments, may vary depending on glacier size, geomorphic setting, and microclimate. By contrast, responses to permafrost warming (increased surface instability and mass movements) and changes in snow patterns (avalanche risk, floods) may have quite different spatial and temporal patterns and influenced by different environmental controls. An integrated evolutionary model for mountain system development under a changing cryosphere is proposed, highlighting the critical role of energy balance as a forcing factor that then triggers downstream mountain system responses. This suggests that different elements of mountain systems exhibit different sensitivities, and furthermore that these sensitivities change over time and space through the period of anthropogenic global warming and paraglacial relaxation.

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Synoptic control on snow avalanche activity in central Spitsbergen

Cited by 5 publications

References 55 publications

Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

Review article: Snow and ice avalanches in high mountain Asia – scientific, local and indigenous knowledge

The sensitivity and evolutionary trajectory of the mountain cryosphere: Implications for mountain geomorphic systems and hazards

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