System of the Wind Wave Operational Forecast by the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center

Abstract

System of the wind wave operational forecast in the Black Sea based on the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) numerical spectral model is represented. In the course of the system development the SWAN model was adapted to take into account the features of its operation at the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center.The model input-output is agreed with the applied nomenclature and the data representation formats. The user interface for rapid access to simulation results was developed. The model adapted to wave forecast in the Black Sea in a quasi-operational mode, is validated for 2012-2015.Validation of the calculation results was carried out for all five forecasting terms based on the analysis of two-dimensional graphs of the wave height distribution derived from the data of prognostic calculations and remote measurements obtained with the altimeter installed on the Jason-2 satellite. Calculation of the statistical characteristics of the deviations between the wave height prognostic values and the data of their measurements from the Jason-2 satellite, as well as a regression analysis of the relationship between the forecasted and measured wave heights was additionally carried out.A The forecasts carried out by the authors for the Black Sea as well as those obtained for the other World Ocean regions show that the current level of numerical methods for sea wave forecasting is in full compliance with the requirements of specialists engaged in studying and modeling the state of the ocean and the atmosphere, as well as the experts using these results for solving applied problems.Keywords: the Black Sea, SWAN, automatic system, wave forecast, altimetry, satellite measurements, wave height, validation, visualization, server. Ocean. Currently, the center continues to operate autonomously. One of the tasks of further improvement of the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center (BSMFC) operational system is related to the creation of integrated marine forecast systems based on simultaneous joint work of various forecasting models, including those intended for joint forecasting of the Black Sea circulation and waves.Joint wave and circulation forecast will permit to increase the accuracy of calculations of sea current velocity, temperature and salinity in the upper sea layer and determine the sea wave characteristics. Improving the forecast quality is achieved due to a more correct consideration of the effects of the interaction of sea waves and currents using a complex prognostic model of these phenomena.

Updated System for the Sea Wave Operational Forecast of the Black Sea Marine Forecasting Center

“…Results of the basic version validation of the system for the Black Sea water area, given in [11], and similarly performed validation of the modified system for the Black Sea and Sevastopol region water areas according to altimetry measurements for 2017-2019, showed a noticeable underestimation of the calculated values of the significant waves height in relation to the data of satellite measurements in conditions of moderate and strong waves. This effect is noted not only in our results, but also in other works.…”

“…1. It is similar to the functional scheme given in [11], with the exception of the block that predicts waves in the Sevastopol region, which is included in the system during its modernization. Forecasts are made daily according to a cyclically repeated scheme.…”

“…T a b l e 1 Wave characteristics were calculated using the SWAN model (version 41.20) using OpenMP technology for multi-core processors. The bottom relief for the Black Sea water area was set in the same way as in the Black Sea Marine Forecasting Center systems [11,12]. For the Sevastopol region, the bottom topography was prepared based on the use of database 1 with a spatial resolution of 30 s. An irregular grid with 31 nodes was used along the frequency coordinate varying in the range of 0.05-1.0 Hz.…”

“…In [11], a system of operational wind wave forecast in the Black Sea with a spatial resolution of 5 km, developed based on SWAN model, was announced. Comparison of the results of wind wave modeling obtained by us with the results of other authors showed their satisfactory agreement.…”

Interannual Variability of the Wind-Wave Regime Parameters in the Black Sea

“…Spectral wave models are successfully used to study wave processes in a wide range of spatio-temporal variability, and also serve as a reliable tool for operational forecast of wind waves. In this regard, the work is worth to be paid attention to [6]. It shows the SWAN spectral model adaptation stages to take into account the peculiarities of its functioning in the Black Sea Center of Marine Forecasts.…”