Abstract. The paper presents the development of the Black Sea community nowcasting and forecasting system under the Black Sea GOOS initiative and the EU framework projects ARENA, ASCABOS and ECOOP. One of the objectives of the Black Sea Global Ocean Observing System project is a promotion of the nowcasting and forecasting system of the Black Sea, in order to implement the operational oceanography in the Black Sea region. The first phase in the realization of this goal was the development of the pilot nowcasting and forecasting system of the Black Sea circulation in the framework of project ARENA funded by the EU. The ARENA project included the implementation of advanced modeling and data assimilation tools for near real time prediction. Further progress in development of the Black Sea nowcasting and forecasting system was made in the frame of ASCABOS project, which was targeted at strengthening the communication system, ensuring flexible and operative infrastructure for data and information exchange between the Black Sea partners and end-users. The improvement of the system was made in the framework of the ECOOP project. As a result it was transformed into a real-time mode operational nowcasting and forecasting system. The paper provides the general description of the main parts of the system: circulation and ecosystem models, data assimilation approaches, the system architecture as well as their qualitative and quantitative calibrations.

System of the wind wave operational forecast in the Black Sea based on the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) numerical spectral model is represented. In the course of the system development the SWAN model was adapted to take into account the features of its operation at the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center.The model input-output is agreed with the applied nomenclature and the data representation formats. The user interface for rapid access to simulation results was developed. The model adapted to wave forecast in the Black Sea in a quasi-operational mode, is validated for 2012-2015.Validation of the calculation results was carried out for all five forecasting terms based on the analysis of two-dimensional graphs of the wave height distribution derived from the data of prognostic calculations and remote measurements obtained with the altimeter installed on the Jason-2 satellite. Calculation of the statistical characteristics of the deviations between the wave height prognostic values and the data of their measurements from the Jason-2 satellite, as well as a regression analysis of the relationship between the forecasted and measured wave heights was additionally carried out.A The forecasts carried out by the authors for the Black Sea as well as those obtained for the other World Ocean regions show that the current level of numerical methods for sea wave forecasting is in full compliance with the requirements of specialists engaged in studying and modeling the state of the ocean and the atmosphere, as well as the experts using these results for solving applied problems.Keywords: the Black Sea, SWAN, automatic system, wave forecast, altimetry, satellite measurements, wave height, validation, visualization, server. Ocean. Currently, the center continues to operate autonomously. One of the tasks of further improvement of the Black Sea Marine Forecast Center (BSMFC) operational system is related to the creation of integrated marine forecast systems based on simultaneous joint work of various forecasting models, including those intended for joint forecasting of the Black Sea circulation and waves.Joint wave and circulation forecast will permit to increase the accuracy of calculations of sea current velocity, temperature and salinity in the upper sea layer and determine the sea wave characteristics. Improving the forecast quality is achieved due to a more correct consideration of the effects of the interaction of sea waves and currents using a complex prognostic model of these phenomena.

Abstract. The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system) project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the northwestern shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the northeastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

No abstract

No abstract