Temperature changes in Poland from the 16th to the 20th centuries

Abstract

A standardized tree-ring width chronology of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) along with different types of documentary evidence (e.g. annals, chronicles, diaries, private correspondence, records of public administration, early newspapers) have been used to reconstruct air temperature in Poland. The ground surface temperature (GST) history has been reconstructed based on the continuous temperature logs from 13 wells, using a new method developed recently by Harris and Chapman (1998; Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 7371-7383) which is compared with the functional space inversion (FSI) method applied to all available Polish temperature-depth profiles analysed before.Response function calculations conducted for trees growing in Poland (except in mountainous regions) reveal a statistically significant correlation between the annual ring widths of the Scots pine and the monthly mean air temperatures, particularly from February and March, but also from January and April. Therefore, it was only possible to reconstruct the mean January-April air temperature.The following periods featured a warm late winter/early spring: 1530-90, 1656-70 (the warmest period), 1820-50, 1910-40, and after 1985. On the other hand, a cold January-April occurred in the following periods: 1600-50, 1760-75, 1800-15, 1880-1900, and 1950-80. Reconstructions of thermal conditions using documentary evidence were carried out for winter (December-February) and summer (June-August) from 1501 to 1840 and, therefore, their results cannot be directly compared with reconstructions based on tree-ring widths. Winter temperatures in this period were colder than air temperature in the 20th century. On the other hand, 'historical' summers were generally warmer than those occurring in the 20th century. Such situations dominated in the 16th and 17th centuries, as well as at the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries. Throughout almost the entire period from 1501 to 1840, the thermal continentality of the climate in Poland was greater than in the 20th century.GST reconstructions show that its average pre-instrumental level (1500-1778) is about 0.9-1.5°C lower than the mean air temperature for the period 1951-81. Lower amplitude of GST warming (0.9 ± 0.1°C) results from the individual and simultaneous inversions of well temperature data using the FSI method. A very good correspondence of the results has been found between series of annual mean GSTs from the FSI method and mean seasonal air temperatures reconstructed using documentary evidence.

Natural proxy records of temperature- and hydroclimate variability with annual resolution from the Northern Balkan–Carpathian region for the past millennium – Review & recalibration

“…1805; 1808; 1867; 1874; Fig. 6a) in the Sinaia winter proxy were in accordance with reconstructed winter-early spring temperatures from Poland (Przybylak et al, 2005). The most pronounced exception is the coldest winter of 1846/47, which is also reflected in the CEUwtr, but with a smaller magnitude.…”

Salvinia natans in medieval wetland deposits in Gdańsk, northern Poland: evidence for the early medieval climate warming

“…According to documentary data from N. Poland, all winter 10-year-mean air temperatures in the period 1501-1840 were distinctly colder than in the 20th century (Przybylak et al 2005), and mean temperatures in the 20th century were colder than in the decade 1998-2008. We believe that floods are a secondary factor that probably plays a role in the recent S. natans expansion in N. Poland, and could have been important in the past. Floods associated with extreme climate-driven events generally result in escapes of previously confined aquatic species (Walther et al 2009).…”

The Historical Time Frame (Past 1000 Years)

“…Several recent multi-proxy reconstructions were made for the northern hemisphere (Jones et al 1998(Jones et al , 2001a(Jones et al , b, 2009Mann et al 1998Mann et al , 1999Mann et al , 2008Bertrand et al 2002;Mann and Jones 2003;Jones and Mann 2004;Moberg et al 2005;Ljungqvist 2010;Ljungqvist et al 2012). On a regional scale, the most important reconstructions based on tree-ring or multi-proxy data are for Fennoscandia (Briffa et al 1992;Gouirand et al 2008;Lindholm et al 2009Lindholm et al , 2011Esper et al 2012), Finland (Helama et al 2002(Helama et al , 2005(Helama et al , 2009bOgurtsov et al 2008;Luoto and Helama 2010), central and northern Sweden (Gunnarson and Linderholm 2002;Linderholm and Gunnarson 2005;Moberg et al 2006;Grudd 2008), eastern Norway (Kalela-Brundin 1999, Germany (Glaser 2008;Glaser and Riemann 2009), the north-western Baltic Sea (Klimanov et al 1985), Russia (Klimenko and Solomina 2010), and Poland (Przybylak et al 2005Przybylak 2007Przybylak , 2011SzychowskaKrąpiec 2010;Koprowski et al 2012). Although many of the data sets concern the Alps (Büntgen et al 2005…”

“…The uncertainty in reconstructed temperatures (based on the calibration period statistics) is illustrated by ±2 standard errors with grey shading (for the 10-year smoothing only) Fig. 3.3 Reconstructed mean January-April air temperature in Poland for the period 1170-1994 using a standardised chronology of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) tree-ring widths (modified after Przybylak et al 2005;Przybylak 2011). Rek-11 and Rek-50 represent 11-and 50-year running means; reconstruction using areally averaged air temperature from Warsaw, Bydgoszcz and Gdańsk for calibration.…”

“…Rek-11 and Rek-50 represent 11-and 50-year running means; reconstruction using areally averaged air temperature from Warsaw, Bydgoszcz and Gdańsk for calibration. Obs: measured mean January-April area-averaged air temperature from Warsaw, Bydgoszcz and Gdańsk (Przybylak et al 2005;Przybylak 2007Przybylak , 2011 The 50-year running means for the annual temperature anomalies over Sweden varied from −0.5°C in the seventeenth century during the LIA to about +0.4°C in twelfth to thirteenth centuries representing the MWP (Fig. 3.5).…”