Tendências anuais e sazonais nos extremos de temperatura do ar e precipitação em campina grande - pb

Dantas, Leydson Galvíncio; Santos, Carlos Antônio Costa dos; Olinda, Ricardo Alves de

doi:10.1590/0102-778620130088

Cited by 20 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Parallel to these climatic changes, many regions have also been rapidly urbanizing (KISHTAWAL et al, 2009). There is increasing evidence that urbanization can have a significant feedback on the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation (DANTAS; SANTOS; OLINDA, 2015;ALVALÁ, 2015). Cotton and Pielke (2007) cite many studies on how the urbanization changes precipitation patterns as a result of mesoscale circulations and through changes in the potential convective energy available.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of trends for extreme events of precipitation in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte through statistical methods

Nunes

Pinto

Baptista

2018

RBRH

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Extreme weather events have emerged as one of the main manifestations of climate change, being that the mitigation of the elapsed impacts demand studies of the magnitude and frequency of their occurrence. This study aims to identify the trends of extreme precipitation events in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte, especially concerning their frequency. The trends of precipitation were studied with especial regard to the indices set by ETCCDMI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices), including time series of annual number of rainy days above a certain threshold recorded at fourteen rainfall gauging stations. One stage of this study consisted in surveying the flood occurrence in the area, besides analyzing the precipitation data corresponding to date of flood occurrences, in order to establish a threshold value beyond which an event would entail potential impacts. No regional index pattern could be set based on such results, although the rainfall station located in the city of Belo Horizonte reported a statistically significant increase in daily precipitation events above 10, 20, 30 and 40 mm, in maximum precipitation recorded over five consecutive days, in daily intensity, and in total annual precipitation. Abrupt changes in rainfall series were also recorded. The results have indicated that the city may be potentially impacted by extreme rainfall increase, probably associated to changes in temperatures on regional and local scales. RESUMOEventos climáticos extremos são considerados uma das principais manifestações de mudança climática, sendo que a minimização dos impactos decorrentes passa pelo estudo da magnitude e frequência de suas ocorrências. Neste sentido, a presente pesquisa busca identificar tendências em eventos extremos de precipitação na Região Metropolitana de Belo Horizonte, à luz da crescente preocupação com o aumento de sua ocorrência na região. As tendências da precipitação foram estudadas, principalmente, por meio dos índices estabelecidos pela ETCCDMI, incluindo séries temporais do número anual de dias chuvosos acima de um certo limiar estabelecido, considerando quatorze estações pluviométricas. A fim de estimar o valor de precipitação limiar, que acarretaria potenciais impactos, foi realizada uma busca de alagamentos ocorridos na região, para que estes fossem associados aos dados de precipitação nos dias de sua ocorrência. A análise efetuada não permitiu a detecção de um padrão regional nos índices analisados, no entanto, a estação localizada em Belo Horizonte apresentou aumento dos eventos de precipitação diária iguais ou superiores a 10, 20, 30 e 40 mm, na precipitação acumulada em cinco dias consecutivos, na intensidade diária e no total anual precipitado. Foram também registradas mudanças abruptas nas séries de precipitação. Os resultados indicaram que Belo Horizonte pode ser impactada pelo aumento de chuvas extremas, fato que pode estar associado a mudanças identificadas nas séries de temperatura.Palavras-chave: chuvas extremas; mudanças climáticas; não estac...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of trends for extreme events of precipitation in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte through statistical methods

Nunes

Pinto

Baptista

2018

RBRH

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“…Nóbrega et al (2015) estudaram estes índices de extremos de precipitação no Estado de Pernambuco para o período 1978-2010, usando séries temporais de precipitação diária advindas da análise gradeada do Climate Prediction Center (CPC); em estudo específico para Campina Grande (PB). Dantas et al (2015) analisaram os índices a partir de séries temporais do INMET no período 1975-2011. Tais índices têm sido estudados para outras regiões do Brasil, a exemplo de Natividade et al (2017), que os analisaram para dados observados e sob cenários de mudanças climáticas em Minas Gerais, e Santos e Oliveira, (2017) para o Estado do Pará com dados entre 1970 e 2006.…”

Section: Resultsunclassified

“…Santos e Brito (2007) Nóbrega et al (2015), estudaram a variabilidade e tendências de índices de extremos de chuva em Pernambuco por meio de dados gradeados do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) relativos ao período de 1978 a 2010. Dantas et al (2015) estudaram tendências sazonais e anuais de índices de extremos para a Cidade de Campina Grande, no período 1975 a 2011.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Tendências em índices extremos de precipitação em Cabaceiras (PB) para períodos distintos

Costa

Gomes

Silva

et al. 2020

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

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Este trabalho teve como objetivo aplicar e estudar 11 índices de extremos de precipitação formulados pelo ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, www.clivar.org/organization/etccdi), para a cidade de Cabaceiras-PB, utilizando dados diários de precipitação contínuos de 90 anos. Os índices foram calculados para o comprimento total da série, 1928 a 2017, assim como para três segmentos de 30 anos (1928-1957, 1958-1987 e 1988-2017). Os resultados evidenciaram que para muitos índices, tendências opostas e estatisticamente significativas podem ser observadas a depender do subperíodo estudado, assim como haver diferença entre estas tendências e as obtidas ao analisar-se o período total dos dados. Exemplos disso aconteceram para os índices R1mm, R10mm, R20mm, CWD e PRCPTOT. Trends in extreme precipitation indexes in Cabaceiras (PB) for different periods A B S T R A C TThis work aimed to apply and analyze 11 precipitation extremes indexes formulated by ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, www.clivar.org/organization/etccdi), for the city of Cabaceiras, located in the Borborema mesoregion and microregion of Paraíba Oriental Cariri. A municipality in the semiarid region, it has the title of municipality where it rains less in Brazil, with an annual average of just over 300mm. Daily 90-year continuous precipitation data were used for the extreme indices, with the time series analyzed for four distinct periods, the total length of the series, 1928 to 2017, as well as three 30-year segments (1928-1957, 1958- 1987 and 1988-2017). The results showed that for many indices, opposite and significant trends can be observed depending on the sub period studied, as well as differences between these trends and those obtained by analyzing the total data period. The R1, R10 and R20mm indices show significant negative trends in the 1928-1957 sub period, but positive in the following two sub periods, reflecting a significant positive trend in the total period from 1928 to 2017. Other interesting examples are CDD indices for consecutive dry days, and PRCPTOT, for total annual rainfall with rainfall greater than 1mm. The CDD showed significant positive trend only in the 1928-1957 sub period, but non-significant negative trends in the subsequent sub periods, reflecting non-significant negative trends in the total length of the series. The PRCPTOT index shows behavior opposite to the CDD index, with a significant negative trend in the 1928-1957 sub period, positive in 1958-1987 and negative again in 1988-2017, but for the total length of the series the trend is positive and significant. These results show that the analysis of extreme trends is noticeably sensitive to the sample of the analyzed period, and may not reflect the reality of the time series the longer the total length of the time series, and need to be used with caution.Keywords: climate variability, dry and wet periods, semiarid.

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“…A região semiárida brasileira apresenta, também, grande vulnerabilidade às secas em razão da degradação da terra e da desertificação oriundas de intervenções antrópicas, por motivos culturais e econômicos (DANTAS et al, 2015;MARENGO et al, 2017). Fato este que pode piorar devido às previsões relacionadas às mudanças climáticas, que preveem déficits de precipitação, juntamente com aumento da temperatura, tornando as secas mais frequentes (MENEZES et al, 2008;ANDRADE, 2011;DANTAS et al, 2015;MARENGO et al, 2016;FERREIRA et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Seasonal trend of climate variables in an area of the Caatinga phytogeographic domain

Campos

Andrade

2021

AGRO@MBIENTE ON-LINE

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Wide variability in the rainfall regime and drought is characteristic of semi-arid regions. A better understanding of this variability can aid decision-making in the short, medium and long term. The aim of this study was to identify long-term patterns and trends in rainfall and temperature through the use of temporal patterns, in addition to assessing the duration of wet and dry periods. Daily historical series of rainfall and temperature for the district of Iguatu, Ceará were used. For rainfall, the annual and monthly climate normal (1974-2018) was calculated, in addition to the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) during the rainy season. The annual mean value for the maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures (1996-2017) was also calculated. Wide interannual variability in the rainfall was found, with very wet years (1985; 2009 and 2011) and very dry years (1979; 1983 and 1993) interspersed with periods of around average rainfall. When analysing the total occurrence of dry spells by class, it was found that events of from 5 to 10 days were the most frequent, and tended to reduce in number over the period under investigation. There was also an increase in the number of longer events, those over 16 days. Maximum annual temperatures show an increasing trend over the years, with minimum temperatures showing the smallest increases. It was concluded that extreme rainfall events are common, and alternate between rainy years and years of drought. The increase in maximum temperature and the reduction in rainfall express the extreme climate variability that may be a consequence of climate change.

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Tendências anuais e sazonais nos extremos de temperatura do ar e precipitação em campina grande - pb

Cited by 20 publications

References 17 publications

Detection of trends for extreme events of precipitation in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte through statistical methods

Detection of trends for extreme events of precipitation in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte through statistical methods

Tendências em índices extremos de precipitação em Cabaceiras (PB) para períodos distintos

Seasonal trend of climate variables in an area of the Caatinga phytogeographic domain

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