Testing the fiscal fatigue phenomenon in Turkey using a long-run non-linear fiscal reaction function approach

Akar, Sevda

doi:10.3934/qfe.2019.4.645

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Ayrıca Avrupa ülkelerinde -1980-2013 dönemi içinmali yorgunluk ve borçların sürdürülebilirliği durumlarını ampirik olarak inceleyen Icaza (2018) da -"mali yorgunluk" anlamına gelen-birincil dengenin artan borç durumlarına karşı hissiz kalması durumunu ortaya koyan bir kanıta ulaşamamıştır. Icaza (2018) Akar (2019) modelinde yer verdiği açıklayıcı değişkenlerden (kamu borç yükü, çıktı açığı, enflasyon, dış ticarete açıklık, cari işlemler dengesi ve faiz oranları) "kamu borç yükü" dışında yalnızca "çıktı açığı" değişkenini istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulmuştur. Bu çalışmada ise bu iki değişkene ek olarak "kamu harcamaları açığı", "dış ticarete açıklık" ve "yaş bağımlılık oranı" değişkenleri de istatiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuş ve gerekli şekilde analize dâhil edilmişlerdir.…”

Section: Li̇teratür Taramasiunclassified

“…Mali Reaksiyon Fonksiyonu, 1986-2019 Şöyle ki birincil dengenin, kamu borç yükü değişkeni dışındaki belirleyicilerinin ulaşılan katsayıları ile bu serilerin ilgili yıldaki 15 gerçekleşen değerlerinin çarpılmaları sonucu π değerine ulaşılmıştır: µ = 0.1231*ça -0.3306*kha -0.1591*dta -0.1651*ybo + 15.5958 (6) Nominal faiz oranları, -TCMB'den elde edilen-ihale yöntemiyle satılan uzun dönem tahvil faizlerinin bu tahvillerin miktarlarına göre ağırlıklı ortalaması alınarak tarafımızca hesaplanmıştır. Enflasyon ve büyüme oranları ise KMYD'den edinilmiştir.…”

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Fiscal Fatigue: An Empirical Study on Turkey

Akbayir¹

2021

Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

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Bu çalışmanın amacı, mali reaksiyon fonksiyonundan yola çıkılarak Türkiye’de mali yorgunluk davranışının ortaya çıktığı borç yükü seviyesinin belirlenmesidir. Buna göre öncelikle Sıradan En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi aracılığıyla 1986-2019 dönemi yıllık verileri ile mali reaksiyon fonksiyonu hesaplanmıştır. Sonrasında son on yılın verilerinden faydalanarak faiz-büyüme diferansiyeli hesaplanmıştır. Her iki adımdan elde edilen değerlerin standart bütçe kısıdından türetilen bir takım eşitlikler aracılığıyla bir araya getirilmesi sonucunda ise mali yorgunluk davranışının ortaya çıktığı borç yükü seviyesi belirlenmiştir. Buna göre Türkiye’de mali yorgunluk davranışının, kamu borç yükünün yaklaşık olarak %44’e ulaşması durumunda ortaya çıktığı görülmektedir. Nihayetinde Türkiye’de ekonominin kırılgan yapısını ortadan kaldıracak ya da bu kırılganlığı azaltacak yapısal reformların gerçekleştirilmesinin elzem olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

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Section: Li̇teratür Taramasiunclassified

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Fiscal Fatigue: An Empirical Study on Turkey

Akbayir¹

2021

Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

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“…Both key words "growth" and "sustainability" of development is actively discussed in studies of the past years form several points of views, riskiness of high indebtedness with negative effect to fiscal policy and investors' perception, examination of the relationship between sovereign credit ratings and FDI inflows (Bayar, 2016), trying to understand the boundaries and effects of debt-based financing of public investments (Ari, 2018 Make your research more visible, join the Twitter account of ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES:@Entrepr69728810 relationship between growth and imbalances are considered with study of the fiscal policy issues (Akar, 2019), the effects the foreign exchange market and regulation of capital flows and "appropriate industrial policy" (Landesmann, 2018).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Debt and investments: analysis of selected countries

Kaliyeva¹,

Sembiyeva²,

Zhagyparova³

et al. 2020

JESI

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Starting with overview of existing approaches to meaning and use of the terms the paper focuses on analysis of two indicators vital in any economydebt and investments. It discusses the differences of sovereign and country debts as well as internal and external debts. Public debt is important indicator for government performance evaluation but outcome and impact of total external debt should be on focus too for sustainable growth of any country. The article discusses the results of analysis conducted with regard to the gross public debt, gross external debt by sectors. Further analysis is focused on Foreign Direct Investment and External Debt stocks of the selected countries which are from developing and emerging economies. Empirical analysis of external debt and foreign direct investments of Kazakhstan is carried out as of the country which leads the list of Foreign Direct Investment related component of the external debt. We discuss the important factors to be further investigated with regard to debt management and investment policy of a country.

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“…However, little attention has been paid to the analysis of the fiscal channel in the oil price-consumer/producer price mechanism. Specifically, when oil prices change and government debt increases, this increases investors' willingness to invest in enterprises and results in a consequent stabilization of consumer/producer prices (Akar, 2019); therefore, the primary aim of this study was to explore the role of financial market and government debt channels in transmitting oil price shocks to consumer/producer prices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil Price Pass-Through Into Consumer and Producer Prices With Monetary Policy in China: Are There Non-linear and Mediating Effects

2020

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Balancing the oil pass-through to consumer and producer prices is crucial for policymakers. This study aimed to advance associated thinking by examining how consumer and producer prices in China related to changes in global oil prices from 2006 to 2018. First, we investigated the pass-through of oil spot prices to consumer prices as indicated by the consumer price index (CPI) and means of consumption price index (MCPI), and to producer prices as indicated by the producer price index (PPI) and means of production price index (MPPI), with a monetary policy in China. This study also explored the non-linear and mediating effects of financial markets and government debt on linkages between oil prices and consumer/producer prices based on non-linear framework and causal steps approach, respectively. Our findings indicated some key points; for example, the pass-through of oil prices with a monetary policy in China shed light on a benchmark role in global oil markets. Additionally, the non-linear effect of oil prices on consumer/producer prices varied across the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil markets. The mediating effect of government debt also reflected the effectiveness in balancing the relationship between oil prices and producer prices. Government debt explained the −0.091 transition between the Brent oil price and the PPI and could explain the −0.095 transition between the Brent oil price and the MPPI, whereas the transition due to financial markets were −0.064 and −0.080, respectively. These outcomes have important implications for stabilizing price levels in countries.

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Testing the fiscal fatigue phenomenon in Turkey using a long-run non-linear fiscal reaction function approach

Cited by 7 publications

References 11 publications

Fiscal Fatigue: An Empirical Study on Turkey

Fiscal Fatigue: An Empirical Study on Turkey

Debt and investments: analysis of selected countries

Oil Price Pass-Through Into Consumer and Producer Prices With Monetary Policy in China: Are There Non-linear and Mediating Effects

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