The 1928–1936 Partisan Realignment: The Case for the Conversion Hypothesis

Abstract

An unresolved question concerning the New Deal realignment is the extent to which the Democratic surge in the vote resulted from either the conversion of former Republicans or the mobilization of newly active voters. Analyzing survey data from the Literary Digest straw polls and from early Gallup polls, we find evidence supporting the conversion hypothesis. New voters in 1928, 1932 and 1936 were only slightly more Democratic in their voting behavior than were established voters. Between 1924 and 1936, the vote among established voters was extremely volatile, largely accounting for the Democratic gains. After 1936, however, vote shifts became minimal and party identification had become highly consistent with presidential voting, suggesting a crystallization of the New Deal realignment by the late 1930s rather than a gradual evolution due to generational replacement.

Generational Basis of Turnout Decline in Established Democracies

“…This is because the United States is unique in having voluntary voter registration with a very large proportion of the population failing to register (France also has voluntary voter registration, but registration rates there are almost as high as in countries where the state takes responsibility for ensuring voter registration). In the United States, at least until recent motor voter legislation, those who did not vote were generally not registered and those who took the trouble to register generally voted (Erikson and Tedin, 1981) -a situation that makes it quite impossible to imagine using US registration figures as a basis for measuring turnout there.…”

The Transformation of the American State: The New Era-New Deal Test

“…At the level of the mass public, the 1932 electoral realignment and formation of a "New Deal Coalition" has been rather well established (Andersen 1979;Burnham 1970;Clubb et al 1980;Erikson and Tedin 1981). The coalition members might serve as new targets of government benefits, causing a redistribution of goods and services in their direction.…”

The Dynamics of Critical Realignments: An Analysis Across Time and Space

“…Among the survey studies, scholars either examine data from non-random New Deal-era Literary Digest surveys (Erikson and Tedin 1981), or recalled partisanship from post-New Deal NES surveys (Andersen 1979). Table 1 summarizes the results of these studies.…”