The Amplifying Effect of Conflicts on Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19: Evidence From 120 Countries

Abstract

Using the COVID-19 database of Johns Hopkins University, this study examines the determinants of the case fatality rate of COVID-19. We consider various potential determinants of the mortality risk of COVID-19 in 120 countries. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) estimations show that internal and external conflicts are positively related to the case fatality rates. This evidence is robust to the exclusion of countries across different regions. Thus, the evidence indicates that conflict may explain significant differences in the case fatality rate of COVID-19 across countries.

Stochastic Dynamics of the COVID-19 Case-Fatality Ratios in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines: Economic Implications for the Post-COVID-19 Era

“…Note that when we focus on the first difference of the series, all CFR values become stationary. The results from Malaysia, which show the predictability of the CFR values, are in line with the findings of Diaz et al ( 7 ), Sorci et al ( 9 ), Daw ( 10 ), Zhai et al ( 11 ), Khan et al ( 12 ), and Hradsky and Komarek ( 13 ). However, the findings from Indonesia and the Philippines, which provide the unpredictability of the CFR values, are in line with the previous evidence in Ioannidis et al ( 5 ).…”

“…However, the pattern of the COVID-19 pandemic can be predicted in Malaysia using the CFR value in the country. This issue may be important when the CFR of the COVID-19 will be used as the dependent variable in the empirical analyses [see e.g., (10)(11)(12)].…”

“…Moreover, Daw ( 10 ) shows that the conflicts raise the CFR values in Libya, Syria, and Yemen. Zhai et al ( 11 ) further develop this evidence by using the cross-section data from 120 countries. Daw ( 10 ) and Zhai et al ( 11 ) conclude that conflicts are the main variables determining the CFR.…”

“…Zhai et al ( 11 ) further develop this evidence by using the cross-section data from 120 countries. Daw ( 10 ) and Zhai et al ( 11 ) conclude that conflicts are the main variables determining the CFR. Khan et al ( 12 ) also observe that the CFR of the COVID-19 is negatively related to the efficiency of government, civil society, and health expenditures using the dataset of 86 countries.…”

Effects of Social Mobility and Stringency Measures on the COVID-19 Outcomes: Evidence From the United States

“…Daw (14) indicates that the armed conflicts are the main drivers of the COVID-19 outcomes in three case countries: Libya, Syria, and Yemen. Similarly, Zhai et al (15) focus on the cross-sectional data in 120 countries and show that internal and external conflicts are the main determinants of the COVID-19 pandemic.…”