The California coastal wave monitoring and prediction system

O’Reilly, W. C.; Olfe, Corey; Thomas, Julie; Seymour, Richard J.; Guza, R. T.

doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.06.005

Cited by 91 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 23 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…A buoy‐driven, regional wave model (O'Reilly et al, ) was used to estimate hourly wave conditions in 10‐m water depth spaced at 100‐m intervals alongshore. The model includes the effects of complex offshore bathymetry and varying beach orientation on wave exposure.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern California Coastal Response to the 2015–2016 El Niño

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Widespread erosion associated with energetic waves of the strong 2015–2016 El Niño on the U.S. West Coast has been reported widely. However, Southern California was often sheltered from the northerly approach direction of the offshore waves. The few large swells that reached Southern California were not synchronous with the highest tides. Although west coast‐wide tidal anomalies were relatively large in 2015–2016, in Southern California, total water levels (sum of tides, anomalies, and wave superelevation) were lower than during the 1997–1998 Niño, and comparable to the 2009–2010 Niño. Airborne lidar surveys spanning 300 km of Southern California coast show the beach response varied from considerable erosion to accretion. On average, the shoreline moved landward 10 m, similar to the 2009–2010 El Niño. Some San Diego county beaches were narrower in the 1997–1998 El Niño than in 2015–2016, consistent with the higher erosion potential in 1997–1998. Beach retreat exceeded 80 m at a few locations. However, 27% of the shoreline accreted, often in pocket beaches, or near jetties. While adjacent beaches eroded, estuary mouths accreted slightly, and several estuaries remained or became closed during the study period. Only 12% of cliffs eroded (mostly at the base), and the average cliff face retreat was markedly less than historical values. Only two cliff‐top areas retreated significantly. Although some areas experienced significant change, the potential for coastal erosion and damage in Southern California was reduced compared to the 1997–1998 El Niño, because of low rainfall, a northerly swell approach, and relatively limited total high‐water levels.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern California Coastal Response to the 2015–2016 El Niño

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The swell model is necessary, in addition to the local buoys, because complex bathymetric refraction and island shadowing causes sharp spatial wave height gradients. Hourly directional spectra were derived from Monitoring and Prediction locations (MOPs) in 10 m depth, spaced 100 m alongshore, using the Maximum Entropy Method [MEM,42], that creates narrow directional peaks appropriate in swell-dominated wave climates [41].…”

Section: Wavesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Calibration and assessment of process-based numerical models for beach profile evolution in southern California

Kalligeris

Smit

Ludka

et al. 2020

Coastal Engineering

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Cross-shore profile response to energetic wave events is challenging to predict because the physics are poorly understood and wave and topographic data are often sparse or unknown. Six events with varying duration, wave intensity and beach slopes are used to calibrate and assess two process-based cross-shore models, CShore and XBeach, at two southern California beaches. Model performance is quantitatively evaluated using high resolution temporal-spatial survey observations along with Brier Skill Scores (BSS) and a novel Bulk Shoreline Change Error (BSCE) metric that considers alongshore-averaged upper beach volume. XBeach is tested with default and site-calibrated parameters. Site calibration improved XBeach model skill, however the XBeach skill scores are still often low and in no case was the offshore bar correctly predicted. Notably XBeach calibration is sensitive to depth extent and produces significantly different model skill for upper beach and full profile predictions. For CShore, the better performing of two existing sets of parameter values is used. CShore and XBeach predict profile change with limited skill. In their present forms, CShore and XBeach are unable to accurately predict beach profile change on these typical southern California beaches, but when calibrated may provide qualitatively useful estimates of bulk shoreline erosion.

show abstract

“…The distribution of percentage rogue wave occurrence shows that rogue waves are more prevalent in the Southern Californian Bight (SCB; Figure 9). The wave climate in the region is complex (Adams et al, 2008;O'Reilly et al, 2016). Aleutian low sourced waves, approach the SCB from the northwest during La Niña, and more from the west during El Niño (Adams et al, 2008;Graham & Diaz, 2001).…”

Section: Spatial Variationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters?

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Rogue waves are ocean surface waves larger than the surrounding sea that can pose a danger to ships and offshore structures. They are often deemed unpredictable without complex measurement of the wavefield and computationally intensive calculation, which is infeasible in most applications; consequently, there a need for fast predictors. Here we collate, quality control, and analyze the largest data set of single‐point field measurements from surface following wave buoys to search for predictors of rogue wave occurrence. We find that analysis of the sea state parameters in bulk yields no predictors, as the subset of seas containing rogue waves sits within the set of seas without. However, spectral bandwidth parameters of rogue seas display different probability distributions to normal seas, but these parameters are rarely provided in wave forecasts. When location is accounted for, trends can be identified in the occurrence of rogue waves as a function of the average sea state characteristics at that location. These trends follow a power law relationship with the characteristic sea state parameters: mean significant wave height and mean zero upcrossing wave period. We find that frequency of occurrence of rogue waves and their generating mechanism is not spatially uniform, and each location is likely to have its own unique sensitivities, which increase in the coastal seas. We conclude that forecastable predictors of rogue wave occurrence will need to be location specific and reflective of their generation mechanism. Therefore, given location and a sufficiently long historical record of sea state characteristics, the likelihood of occurrence can be obtained for mariners and offshore operators.

show abstract

The California coastal wave monitoring and prediction system

Cited by 91 publications

References 23 publications

Southern California Coastal Response to the 2015–2016 El Niño

Southern California Coastal Response to the 2015–2016 El Niño

Calibration and assessment of process-based numerical models for beach profile evolution in southern California

Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About