The changing shape of spatial inequality in the United States

Abstract

Spatial income disparities have increased in the United States since 1980. Growth in this form of inequality is linked to major social, economic and political challenges. Yet, contemporary patterns, and how they relate to those of the past, remain insufficiently well understood. Building on population survey microdata spanning 1940-2019, this paper uses group-based trajectory modelling techniques to identify distinct sets of local labor markets based on the evolution of their income levels. We find that the increase in spatial inequality since 1980 is almost entirely driven by a small number of populous, economically-important, and resiliently high-performing `superstar' city-regions. Meanwhile, since 1940, much of the rest of the urban system has continued to converge toward the mean. We examine the demographic, economic and social characteristics of these different trajectories, identifying catch-up regions, declining regions, long-term winners, and possible future superstars. There is considerable turbulence within the convergence process, consisting of regions that are moving both upward and downward in the system. We conclude by exploring implications for the American urban-regional system in the mid-21st century, considering the challenges in overcoming the growing split between superstar locations and the rest of the country.

The evolution of the Kuznets curve in Canada

“…A further quick scan of bivariate Moran's I values for inequality and median income levels, which vary from À0.103 in 1981 to 0.399 in 2016, suggests that regional income profiles are also polarizing across space (see also Breau, 2022). This would tie into the arguments advanced by Kemeny and Storper (2022) where trajectories of inequality may be primarily driven by a few large and predominantly urban regions across the country.…”

“…In a highly influential paper, Ganong and Shoag (2017) argue that the convergence process in the United States has slowed considerably (though not completely), primarily because of housing prices which have become an impediment for migration and low-skill workers living in high-income areas. Kemeny and Storper (2022) add yet another twist to the debate by arguing that contemporary patterns of regional inequality in the United States can be characterized as both diverging and converging. While a small number of "superstar" regions have been driving an increase in spatial inequality across the country, the bulk of cities and regions tend to reflect a more secular trend of converging towards the mean.…”

Who gets left behind by left behind places?

“…Implicitly, what matters is not just where a place is now, but where the place came from. Recent work like Houlden et al (2022), Connor et al (2019), Connor & Storper (2020), and Kemeny & Storper (2022) build on this idea, using explicitly longitudinal tools to characterize groups of places and regions following comparable economic pathways through time. Such work reveals that spatial inequality is highly differentiated and, depending on the trajectories of places, the prospects for economic convergence will be varied and uncertain with respect to individual and community outcomes.…”

“…Growing political discontentment across Europe and North America has triggered a new wave of studies that examine economic disparities across regions and communities (Ganong & Shoag, 2017;Gyourko et al, 2013;Kemeny & Storper, 2022). Places that are being left out or left behind by current regimes of economic growth look precarious with respect to personal incomes, livelihoods, social infrastructures and innovation (MacKinnon et al, 2022).…”