The current and future potential distribution of <i>Cytisus scoparius</i>: a weed of pastoral systems, natural ecosystems and plantation forestry

Potter, K. J. B.; Kriticos, Darren J.; Watt, Michael S.; Leriche, Agathe

doi:10.1111/j.1365-3180.2009.00697.x

Cited by 57 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…This model approach allows exploring the fundamental (potential) niche of a species in its introduced range by assuming that climate alone limits the geographical distribution [10]. CLIMEX is a particularly useful tool at an early stage of an invasion, and is well suited to assess the invasion potential of plant species, as shown for Senna obtusifolia (L.) H. S. Irwin & Barneby (sicklepod) [11] and Cytisus scoparius (L.) Link (broom) [12]. The ability to project suitable areas for high impact weeds is useful in forming the basis of a successful management strategy [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential distribution and environmental threat of Pueraria lobata

Follak

2011

Open Life Sciences

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Pueraria lobata (kudzu) is an invasive weed originating from East Asia. Local infestations have been recently observed in Switzerland and northern Italy; however, the potential for P. lobata to spread and to become abundant and damaging in the Alpine countries is not known. The aim of this study was to project the potential distribution of P. lobata under current climate in Switzerland, Austria and Slovenia and parts of northern Italy using the ecoclimatic model CLIMEX. In addition, areas at risk were identified where P. lobata may occur as a strong and aggressive competitor. This was derived from the plants’ distribution and climatic requirements in the south-eastern United States where the heaviest infestations occur. Projections show that 60.84% of the total land area of northern Italy, followed by 47.08% of Slovenia, 21.01% of Austria and only 1.97% of Switzerland are climatically suitable. P. lobata may become a troublesome weed due to very favourable climatic conditions only in some parts of northern Italy and Slovenia. In climatically suitable areas, any occurrence of the plant should be carefully observed. In infested and highly climatically suitable areas, there is a need for strategic management to prevent further spread of P. lobata.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential distribution and environmental threat of Pueraria lobata

Follak

2011

Open Life Sciences

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“…These models are useful "first filters" for identifying locations that may be at greater risk and provide first approximations for impact of climate change on weed species ranges. However, previous attempts to apply climate envelope modelling for predicting the range size changes of arable weeds are few (Kriticos et al 2005, Potter et al 2009. For the present study we selected 25 weed species, representing species with southern and central European distribution patterns and different statuses as weeds, to assess weed species distribution by climate envelope modelling at European scale.…”

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confidence: 99%

Assessment of weed establishment risk in a changing European climate

Hyvönen

Luoto²,

Uotila

2012

AFSci

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We aimed at assessing establishment risk for 25 arable weed species in a changing European climate for the period 2051-2080. An increase (0.3-46.7%) in the range size was projected for the 14 species and a decrease (1.2-67.4%) for the 11 species in a future climate. The inclusion of the land use data increased the explanatory power of the models. The greatest increases in range sizes were projected for Amaranthus retroflexus, Papaver hybridum and Fumaria parviflora, and declines for Sinapis arvensis, Cerastium semidecandrum and Chenopodium rubrum. Application of a more severe climate scenario (HadCM3A2) affected decline (0.5-18.5%) for 12 species and increase (2.2-31.5%) for 13 species in the range size projections compared with the less severe (HadCM3B2) scenario. Both model scenarios projected high percentage species loss in Mediterranean and temperate Europe, but high species gain in the Alps, Carpathians and in boreal Europe. The results suggest that even under moderate climate scenarios drastic changes in the weed establishment risk can be expected to take place in Europe in future.Key words: arable weed, climate change, climate envelope modelling, global warming IntroductionAdaptation of agricultural production to climate change requires information on the future risks faced by production systems. One of the risks for cropping systems is a range expansion of arable weeds (e.g. Patterson 1995, McDonald et al. 2009). The first step in the risk assessment of weed range expansion is predicting the probability of successful establishment of weed species by matching climate data.The response of plants to climate change varies among species, depending on adaptation to specific climate conditions. Species adapted strictly to certain climate conditions may lose those conditions and face increase in extinction risk in a changing climate (Root et al. 2003, Thuiller et al. 2005. In contrast, species most likely to benefit from climate change in terms of extending range sizes are those with distributions independent of specific climate conditions and land use patterns (Hyvönen et al. 2011). Weed species are typically effective in dispersal and can maintain marginal populations outside their main ranges, i.e., they occur as casual aliens (see Richardson et al. 2000). Climate change could facilitate the establishment of such populations and thus extension of species range into new climate zones.The south-north climate gradient in Europe comprises the Mediterranean, temperate, boreal and arctic zones. Arable weed species richness declines from south to north along this gradient (Holzner and Immonen 1982, Glemnitz et al. 2006). The same pattern occurs for several noxious weed species (Schroeder et al. 1993, Milberg and Andersson 2006, Hyvönen et al. 2011, which are of particular interest from a weed management perspective, although the distribution of most harmful weed species is practically ubiquitous in Europe (Glemnitz et al. 2006). Projections for the range shifts of European plant species due to climate change have in...

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“…These findings highlight species-specific responses to climate change and subsequent effects on their ranges, which should, however, be confirmed with field experiments that assess reproductive success outside the current ranges [80,81]. Importantly, the combined effects of northward extension of crop regions and potential climate warming trends [82] will have significant consequences for weed management in Europe, as in other continents [18,20,27].…”

Section: North Of Montana In North Americamentioning

confidence: 77%

“…With the increasing attention to climate change in the past several decades and impacts on biota, researchers and managers have attempted to map how the distribution of weeds might change or is already changing with climate warming and other climatic changes anticipated in temperate regions [18][19][20][21][22]. With these weed distribution changes, there is the prospect of increased economic damage due to weeds, either in newly infested areas or through more favorable conditions in their current ranges [23].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%