Summary1. When invasive species are first detected in a new environment there is often a demand for information about the potential for the organism to spread and create impacts. Uraba lugens (Lepidoptera: Nolidae) is an Australian native moth that has invaded New Zealand in what are presumed to be two separate episodes. After U. lugens was found in Auckland in 2001 a climex ™ model was prepared to gauge the potential for the moth to spread and inflict damage in New Zealand. Inconsistencies in fitting model parameters to the then known native distribution, indicated that the known native distribution was probably incomplete, and that the unknown part of its range was critical for defining its likely range limits in New Zealand. 2. A synthetic sex pheromone trapping survey was used to ascertain the altitudinal and upper rainfall range limits of U. lugens in part of its native range in Australia. The survey extended the known range of U. lugens into higher-altitude and higher-rainfall zones of Tasmania. We used the expanded distribution information to refine a climex model, and to project the climate suitability for U. lugens with particular emphasis on New Zealand. 3. The projected climatic suitability of New Zealand indicates that the area likely to be at risk of invasion by U. lugens is considerably more extensive than was indicated from its historical distribution records in Australia. It now includes all the eucalypt forestry areas. Similarly, the global potential distribution covers the major eucalypt forestry regions of the world. 4. The minimum heat sum necessary to complete a generation for U. lugens that was associated with its range limits was considerably lower than that predicted by average development rates gained from constant temperature and daylength studies. Possible explanations for this anomaly are discussed. 5. Synthesis and applications . The lack of suitable data on the distribution of organisms is perhaps the single most common challenge for ecological climate modellers. Trapping along climatic gradients with a synthetic pheromone lure offers a cheap, rapid means of ascertaining the climatic distribution of suitable high profile insects.

Kriticos DJ,Watt MS, Potter KJB, Manning LK,Alexander NS &Tallent‐Halsell N (2011). Managing invasive weeds under climate change: considering the current and potential future distribution of Buddleja davidii. Weed Research 51, 85–96. Summary Buddleja davidii is both a prized garden ornamental and an invasive shrub that rapidly colonises disturbed ground. Originally from China, B. davidii has been widely distributed by horticulturalists and has subsequently invaded much of Europe and New Zealand, and to a lesser degree the Americas and Australia. The present and future climate suitability for B. davidii was assessed using a process‐oriented climate suitability model. There appears to be a considerable scope for further invasion, with the most suitable areas occurring adjacent to existing naturalised populations in the north‐eastern United States, north‐eastern Europe, south‐eastern Australia and south‐eastern New Zealand. Under future climates, the potential distribution and climate suitability for B. davidii increases most noticeably in the northern United States and southern Canada, northern and eastern Europe, and to a lesser extent in the south‐western part of the South Island of New Zealand. Elsewhere, there are projected poleward range shifts (South America) or range contractions out of subtropical areas (Africa and Australia). Climate‐based potential distribution models can help adapt weed management programmes to expected climate changes by: (i) classifying areas for the different types of weed management, (ii) supporting strategic control initiatives to prevent the spread of a weed, (iii) informing the reallocation of resources away from controlling a weed where climate suitability is expected to diminish in the future and (iv) identifying opportunities for relatively inexpensive preventative management to be applied to minimise future weed impacts.

Summary Cytisus scoparius is a serious weed of pastoral systems, natural ecosystems and plantation forestry, which has become invasive in a number of countries. CLIMEX™ was used to infer the climatic requirements of C. scoparius from its native range, as well as its current range as an exotic in the United States and New Zealand. The parameterised model was used to examine the invasive potential of C. scoparius under current and future climatic conditions, assuming a range of climate‐change scenarios. The modelled global potential distribution of C. scoparius compared favourably with the known distributions, in both the fitted and validation dataset, encompassing almost all temperate and Mediterranean regions. The predicted distribution also included most sub‐tropical regions and extended into continental areas in North America and Europe and savanna regions in Africa. Under current climate, the projected potential distribution exceeded the known distribution. Places most at risk from range expansion include China, Australia, Argentina and North America, as C. scoparius is already present, but has not yet colonised all areas with apparently high climatic suitability. Climate change is likely to lead to a poleward shift in the range of C. scoparius and a contraction of areas of suitable climate for the species in southern Europe, central Africa, Australia, China, Brazil and the southern United States. With climate change, currently uncolonised areas within northern Scandinavia, southern Canada and western regions of the Russian Federation are projected to become climatically suitable.