The drying up of Britain? A national estimate of changes in seasonal river flows from 11 Regional Climate Model simulations

Prudhomme, Christel; Young, Andrew; Watts, Glenn; Haxton, Tracey; Crooks, S.; Williamson, Jennifer; Davies, Helen; Dadson, Simon; Allen, Stuart

doi:10.1002/hyp.8434

Cited by 77 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Given the 90 long modal residence time of water in permeable 91 catchments, Burt et al (2011) (Whitehead et al 2006;106 Wilby et al 2010). These observations point to the need 107 to know more about the interactions of groundwater and 108 surface water and the implications of these interactions 109 for water quality improvement under baseflow condi-110 tions and a changing climate (Prudhomme et al 2012 Tonina and Buffington 2009;Krause 117 et al 2011). Water flow pathways through riverbeds 118 are complex and multi-dimensional, including lateral 119 (horizontal) inputs from the riparian zone (Ranalli and 120 Macalady 2010) and vertical, upwelling groundwater 121 (Stelzer and Bartsch 2012).…”

Section: U N C O R R E C T E D P R O O F U N C O R R E C T E D P R O O Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpreting spatial patterns in redox and coupled water–nitrogen fluxes in the streambed of a gaining river reach

et al. 2013

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Section: U N C O R R E C T E D P R O O F U N C O R R E C T E D P R O O Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpreting spatial patterns in redox and coupled water–nitrogen fluxes in the streambed of a gaining river reach

et al. 2013

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“…In the future, these pressures will continue to increase, with larger populations making greater demands for food production, and, consequently, more intensive farming practices. The pressures are further exacerbated by the effect of a changing climate, which is predicted to bring more frequent extreme events (Kendon et al, 2014;Murphy et al, 2009), resulting in the likelihood of more winter runoff and longer periods of low flow Wilby et al, 2006), although still with much uncertainty (Arnell, 2011;Kay and Jones, 2012;Prudhomme et al, 2012). In conjunction with projected climatic changes, previous studies have indicated likely increases in sediment and nutrient loads (Crossman et al, 2014;El-Khoury et al, 2015;Jeppesen et al, 2009;Jeppesen et al, 2011;Macleod et al, 2012;Rankinen et al, 2015;Whitehead et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments

Ockenden

Deasy

Benskin

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

125

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“…Low-flow examples include De Wit et al (2007) for the Meuse, Hurkmans et al (2010) for the Rhine and Majone et al (2012) for the Gállego river in Spain. National studies include Wong et al (2011) in Norway, Prudhomme et al (2012) in the UK, Chauveau et al (2013) in France and Blöschl et al (2011) in Austria. The hydrological models used in these studies are often not specifically parameterised for low flows, which results in considerable uncertainties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows

Laaha

Parajka

Viglione

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The objective of this paper is to present a framework for assessing climate impacts on future low flows that combines different sources of information, termed pillars. To illustrate the framework three pillars are chosen: (a) extrapolation of observed low-flow trends into the future, (b) rainfall-runoff projections based on climate scenarios and (c) extrapolation of changing stochastic rainfall characteristics into the future combined with rainfall-runoff modelling. Alternative pillars could be included in the overall framework. The three pillars are combined by expert judgement based on a synoptic view of data, model outputs and process reasoning. The consistency/inconsistency between the pillars is considered an indicator of the certainty/uncertainty of the projections. The viability of the framework is illustrated for four example catchments from Austria that represent typical climate conditions in central Europe. In the Alpine region where winter low flows dominate, trend projections and climate scenarios yield consistently increasing low flows, although of different magnitudes. In the region north of the Alps, consistently small changes are projected by all methods. In the regions in the south and south-east, more pronounced and mostly decreasing trends are projected but there is disagreement in the magnitudes of the projected changes. The process reasons for the consistencies/inconsistencies are discussed. For an Alpine region such as Austria the key to understanding low flows is whether they are controlled by freezing and snowmelt processes, or by the summer moisture deficit associated with evaporation. It is argued that the three-pillar approach offers a systematic framework of combining different sources of information aimed at more robust projections than that obtained from each pillar alone.

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The drying up of Britain? A national estimate of changes in seasonal river flows from 11 Regional Climate Model simulations

Cited by 77 publications

References 15 publications

Interpreting spatial patterns in redox and coupled water–nitrogen fluxes in the streambed of a gaining river reach

Interpreting spatial patterns in redox and coupled water–nitrogen fluxes in the streambed of a gaining river reach

Changing climate and nutrient transfers: Evidence from high temporal resolution concentration-flow dynamics in headwater catchments

A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows

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