The Dynamics of Presidential Popularity in Post-Communist Russia: Cultural Imperative versus Neo-Institutional Choice?

Mishler, William; Willerton, John P.

doi:10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00006

Cited by 46 publications

(16 citation statements)

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“…Daniel Treisman () found that in Russia Yeltsin's and Putin's approval ratings were closely linked to public perceptions of economic performance. Another study found similar results with economic and other contextual variables having a greater impact than cultural factors in determining presidential support levels (Mishler and Willerton ). In a study of Peru, Moisés Arce () found that inflation had a negative relationship with presidential approval ratings.…”

Section: Determinants Of Presidential Approvalsupporting

confidence: 63%

The Basis of Support for Hugo Chávez: Measuring the Determinants of Presidential Job Approval in Venezuela

Pérez

2013

The Latin Americanist

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Section: Determinants Of Presidential Approvalsupporting

confidence: 63%

The Basis of Support for Hugo Chávez: Measuring the Determinants of Presidential Job Approval in Venezuela

Pérez

2013

The Latin Americanist

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“…While the Navy brass dithered, ignoring Western offers of help, the news showed Putin jet‐skiing on the Black Sea. Yeltsin's frequent hospital stays cannot have improved his image (Mishler and Willerton 2003). His drinking problem was made vivid in August 1994, when television showed him jerkily conducting a police band in Berlin.…”

Section: Possible Explanationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The only time‐series study of Russian presidential approval of which I am aware is Mishler and Willerton (2003), which examined data up to 2000, and so was not able to draw strong comparisons between the Yeltsin and Putin periods. I extend their analysis, and, using the more extensive data now available, draw somewhat different conclusions.…”

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confidence: 99%

Presidential Popularity in a Hybrid Regime: Russia under Yeltsin and Putin

Treisman

2011

American Journal of Political Science

219

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In liberal democracies, the approval ratings of political leaders have been shown to track citizens' perceptions of the state of the economy. By contrast, in illiberal democracies and competitive autocracies, leaders are often thought to boost their popularity by exploiting nationalism, exaggerating external threats, and manipulating the media. Using time-series data, I examine the determinants of presidential approval in Russia since 1991, a period in which leaders' ratings swung between extremes. I find that Yeltsin's and Putin's ratings were, in fact, closely linked to public perceptions of economic performance, which, in turn, reflected objective economic indicators. Although media manipulation, wars, terrorist attacks, and other events also mattered, Putin's unprecedented popularity and the decline in Yeltsin's are well explained by the contrasting economic circumstances over which each presided. I n liberal democracies, the approval ratings of political leaders play an important role in the interaction between citizens and their governments. 1 Like elections-but far more frequently-they communicate to officials what the public thinks of their performance. Moreover, the messages such polls send have been shown to make sense. In various Western democracies, leaders' ratings tend to rise and fall with the country's economic performance. Respondents appear to hold their leaders responsible and reward them for effective economic management with approval, much as, when voting retrospectively, they repay competent and honest incumbents with reelection.But what role do such ratings play in illiberal democracies and competitive autocracies, where formally democratic institutions coexist with authoritarian elements? In such states, public opinion is often viewed as more a product of political manipulation than an input into politics. Even when the polls themselves are trustworthy, they are thought likely to capture the effects of rulers' political theater rather than reasoned evaluations rooted in material reality. Citizens, fed distorted information by an unfree press and cynical about the possibilities for participation, are expected to focus on image and personalities rather Daniel Treisman is Professor of

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“… See Powers and Cox (1997),Fidrmuk (2000aFidrmuk ( , 2000b,Hesli and Bashkirova (2001),Brader and Tucker (2001),Treisman and Gimpelson (2001),Mishler and Willerton (2003),Richter (2006),Colton and Hale (2008).11 Putin's popularity has been sustained for a number of years. See Andrew Harding, "Why is Putin Popular?…”

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confidence: 99%