Abstract:This research reports on the effects of scenario planning on participant perceptions of organizational creative climate. Participants from scenario planning projects in four different organizations were asked to contribute to the study as well as participants from four similar organizations that did not receive scenario planning. The scenario work took place over the course of 3 months and data were collected as pre-and posttests. Comparisons were made that suggest some significant changes over the course of t… Show more
“…Therefore, they have similar research profiles. Thomas J. Chermack, the third most productive author, also addresses the foundations of scenario planning ( Chermack, 2005 ) and enhancements of the scenario process by using scenarios ( Bodwell & Chermack, 2010 ), but has a stronger focus on organizational and individual side-effects of the scenario technique ( Chermack and Nimon, 2008 , Chermack et al, 2007 , Chermack et al, 2015 , Chermack et al, 2017 , Haeffner et al, 2012 ). Fig.…”
The scenario technique is widely used to cope with uncertainties plan for alternate future situations. The extensive research led to a scattered literature landscape. To organize the field quantitatively, we conduct bibliometric performance analyses and a bibliographic coupling analysis. Results show an increased interest in scenario research since 2009 and clear distinctions between strategic and operational as well as methodological and applied research. Future research can be expected to further enhance the method towards robust decision making and to combine it with methods searching for most likely scenarios, such as prediction markets, crowdsourcing, and superforecasting. Additionally, cognitive and behavioral aspects of using the scenario technique might draw further attention. The scenario technique is expected to be applied across all industries and will probably play an increasing role in currently underrepresented business functions such as marketing and innovation.
“…Therefore, they have similar research profiles. Thomas J. Chermack, the third most productive author, also addresses the foundations of scenario planning ( Chermack, 2005 ) and enhancements of the scenario process by using scenarios ( Bodwell & Chermack, 2010 ), but has a stronger focus on organizational and individual side-effects of the scenario technique ( Chermack and Nimon, 2008 , Chermack et al, 2007 , Chermack et al, 2015 , Chermack et al, 2017 , Haeffner et al, 2012 ). Fig.…”
The scenario technique is widely used to cope with uncertainties plan for alternate future situations. The extensive research led to a scattered literature landscape. To organize the field quantitatively, we conduct bibliometric performance analyses and a bibliographic coupling analysis. Results show an increased interest in scenario research since 2009 and clear distinctions between strategic and operational as well as methodological and applied research. Future research can be expected to further enhance the method towards robust decision making and to combine it with methods searching for most likely scenarios, such as prediction markets, crowdsourcing, and superforecasting. Additionally, cognitive and behavioral aspects of using the scenario technique might draw further attention. The scenario technique is expected to be applied across all industries and will probably play an increasing role in currently underrepresented business functions such as marketing and innovation.
“…McWhorter and Lynham's (2014) review of literature indicates further benefits of scenarios, namely: changed institutional and collective learning, increased strategy development and execution capability with clarity of strategic options, organizational performance and several organizational behavior-based improvements such as cross-functional communication, disagreement management and coaching of leaders. Chermack et al (2015) found that scenario-planning improves the perception of the creative organizational climate. Specifically, participants perceived it to develop freedom and a sense of independence, trust and emotionally safe relationships, time to explore new ideas, and a spontaneous playful atmosphere.…”
Section: Benefits Of Scenario-planningmentioning
confidence: 96%
“…There are so many disrupters that come into the market that can mess those plans up radically. 11In theory Chermack et al (2015) have positioned scenario-planning as an enabler of organizational agility. It would seem that in practice cumbersome scenario processes could inhibit agility in strategic decision-making.…”
Section: Scenarios Are Not Agile or Responsive Enoughmentioning
Purpose-To explore the corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Design/Methodology/Approach-Based on a sample of fifteen case studies with executives in the South African context to reveal the perceived corporate requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning. Findings-From the cases it is evident that industry, organizational and leadership related factors enable or inhibit scenario-planning. Requirements, benefits and inhibitors are revealed in strategic decision-making. Research limitation/implications-Further research to determine supportive tools and technologies for enabling scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed. Practical implications-Expands insights into the requirements, benefits and inhibitors of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Originality/value-Given the increasing complexity of the business environment, a framework of scenario-thinking is presented and recommend greater emphasis on developing strategic decision-making competence, changed mindsets, and organizational agility.
“…The divergent rather than convergent practice of the scenario technique can be associated with creativity that also involves the integration of paradoxes. Indeed, Chermack et al [32] found that the scenario technique enhances a creative climate in organizations. The foresight perspective frees participants from present restrictions, opens their minds for new solutions, and fosters intuition [34].…”
This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future states. The paper employs an affordance-based view that allows for the identification and structuring of hidden, emergent attributes of the scenario technique beyond the intended ones. The suggested framework distinguishes between affordances (1) that are intended by the organization and relate to its goals, (2) that emergently generate organizational benefits, and (3) that do not relate to organizational but individual interests. Also, constraints in the use of scenarios are discussed. Affordance theory's specific lens shows that the emergence of such attributes depends on the users' specific intentions.
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