The efficiency of monetary (regulation) policy and sustainable growth

Bandura, Oleksandr

doi:10.15407/etet2017.01.077

“…Theoretically, CMI-model is fair in any market environment and in any country. It has also been shown empirically that this model is valid for Ukrainian economy as well [17].…”

Section: 5%)?mentioning

confidence: 75%

Untitled

2019

Economy and forecasting

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

It has been empirically proven that the business cycle dating model is inextricably linked with defining the boundaries of periods of stable and instable economic development. The author compares the methods of dating US economic cycles in accordance with the model of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the proposed in this article CMI model of cycles. Shown certain competitive advantages of dating СМІ cycles based on the CMI model against the NBER model, in which case there may be periods of ambiguity in dating. The article demonstrates that the use of the author's СМІ model for dating business cycles avoids the ambiguities that arise in the official dating of recessions based on the classic US NBER model of cycles. The dating of US business cycles with the CMI model revealed a cumulative effect of reducing unemployment, which explains that even with relatively small economic growth, which, however, lasts for a sufficiently long period of time, a significant overall reduction in the unemployment rate can be achieved. The equation to determine the cumulative market imperfections first index (∆Р) reflects the current balance between inflation, employment and economic growth for each moment of real (calendar) time and defines fundamental trends, which can be enhanced (weakened) by random events (external shocks, government actions, speculators, etc.). Therefore, despite the single driving force behind economic cycles, which is quantified by magnitude (∆Р), the configuration of each real cycle is unique. It is shown that the CMI model of economic cycle provides tools to achieve synergies from different types of regulation to maximize economic growth and employment at acceptable inflation by increasing the length of the stability period while reducing the magnitude of cumulative market failure.

show abstract

“…Теоретично СМІ-модель є справедливою за будь-яких ринкових умов та для будь-якої країни. Також емпірично було показано, що ця модель є справедливою і для економіки України [17].…”

Section: рис 3 динаміка рівнів ринкових та природних цін а також рецесійні сигнали смі-моделі для економіки сшаunclassified

Untitled

2019

Ekon. prognozuvannâ

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Economic cycle as a combination of stability and instability in economic development

Bandura¹

2019

Economy and forecasting

5

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

It has been empirically proven that the business cycle dating model is inextricably linked with defining the boundaries of periods of stable and instable economic development. The author compares the methods of dating US economic cycles in accordance with the model of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the proposed in this article CMI model of cycles. Shown certain competitive advantages of dating СМІ cycles based on the CMI model against the NBER model, in which case there may be periods of ambiguity in dating. The article demonstrates that the use of the author's СМІ model for dating business cycles avoids the ambiguities that arise in the official dating of recessions based on the classic US NBER model of cycles. The dating of US business cycles with the CMI model revealed a cumulative effect of reducing unemployment, which explains that even with relatively small economic growth, which, however, lasts for a sufficiently long period of time, a significant overall reduction in the unemployment rate can be achieved. The equation to determine the cumulative market imperfections first index (∆Р) reflects the current balance between inflation, employment and economic growth for each moment of real (calendar) time and defines fundamental trends, which can be enhanced (weakened) by random events (external shocks, government actions, speculators, etc.). Therefore, despite the single driving force behind economic cycles, which is quantified by magnitude (∆Р), the configuration of each real cycle is unique. It is shown that the CMI model of economic cycle provides tools to achieve synergies from different types of regulation to maximize economic growth and employment at acceptable inflation by increasing the length of the stability period while reducing the magnitude of cumulative market failure.

show abstract

The efficiency of monetary (regulation) policy and sustainable growth

Cited by 7 publications

References 8 publications

Untitled

Untitled

Untitled

Economic cycle as a combination of stability and instability in economic development

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About