The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

Vautard, Robert; Gobiet, Andreas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Stegehuis, Annemiek I.; Watkiss, Paul; Mendlik, Thomas; Landgren, Oskar; Nikulin, Grigory; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006

Cited by 335 publications

(270 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…The method to define warming thresholds in climate models follows that of Vautard et al (2014) where scenarios that pass the target warming level are used as snapshots in time representing these levels of warming. This is necessary because sufficient ensembles of climate models stabilising at each of these warming thresholds are not available (unless GCM patterns are scaled so as to reach the same warming levels at the same time, as in Heinke et al 2013).…”

Section: Atmospheric Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The advantage of this approach is that analysing an ensemble of projections for different time periods with a common global temperature change removes some of the uncertainty resulting from the GCM's climate sensitivity (Vautard et al 2014). However, the method relies on the assumption that for a given warming, the impacts of climate change are the same, regardless of the time taken to reach it or whether equilibrium has been reached.…”

Section: Uncertainties and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Van Vliet et al 2015, Forzieri et al 2014, Schneider et al 2013, however with the focus of assessing climate change impacts at fixed periods, for example midor end century. Recent studies have begun to assess climate change (Vautard et al 2014) and associated water impacts in Europe and beyond (Roudier et al 2016) at specific levels of global warming. This study uses a systematic ensemble approach to investigate three research questions: (1) what are the impacts of a +1.5, +2 and +3°C increase in GMT and the associated changes in precipitation and other climate variables on evapotranspiration, runoff, snow and river discharge in Europe?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level

et al. 2017

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Impacts of climate change at 1.5, 2 and 3°C mean global warming above preindustrial level are investigated and compared for runoff, discharge and snowpack in Europe. Ensembles of climate projections representing each of the warming levels were assembled to describe the hydro-meteorological climate at 1.5, 2 and 3°C. These ensembles were then used to force an ensemble of five hydrological models and changes to hydrological indicators were calculated. It is seen that there are clear changes in local impacts on evapotranspiration, mean, low and high runoff and snow water equivalent between a 1.5, 2 and 3°C degree warmer world. In a warmer world, the hydrological impacts of climate change are more intense and spatially more extensive. Robust increases in runoff affect the Scandinavian mountains at 1.5°C, but at 3°C extend over most of Norway, Sweden and northern Poland. At 3°C, Norway is affected by robust changes in all indicators. Decreases in mean annual runoff are seen only in Portugal at 1.5°C warming, but at 3°C warming, decreases to runoff are seen around the entire Iberian coast, the Balkan Coast and parts of the French coast. In affected parts of Europe, there is a distinct increase in the changes to mean, low and high runoff at 2°C compared to 1.5°C, strengthening the case for mitigation to lower levels of global warming. Between 2 and 3°C, the changes in low and high runoff levels continue to increase, but the Climatic Change (2017) 143: 13-26 DOI 10.100713-26 DOI 10. /s10584-017-1971 Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1971-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Atmospheric Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Uncertainties and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level

et al. 2017

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“…Vautard et al, 2014;Fischer and Knutti, 2015;Schleussner et al, 10 2016; King and Karoly, 2017) detailed information about regional climate change is largely missing for scenarios reflecting 1.5°C global warming (e.g. Mitchell et al, 2016)..…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

Kjellström¹,

Nikulin²,

Strandberg³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by respectively 1.5°C and 2°C compared to preindustrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble 5consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under different forcing scenarios. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5°C warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, strongest in northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, that are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly 10 position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are seen already at 1.5°C warming but larger and more robust at 2°C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread between individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent shows decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure indicating a strong relationship 15with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results leading either to attenuation of amplification of the climate change signal in the underlying GCMs. We find that the RCMs tend to produce less warming and more precipitation (or less drying) in many areas in both winter and summer.

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“…Vautard et al, 2014). In fact, future high water temperatures are likely to affect parasite transmission, virulence and host-parasite interactions, with outbreaks being more frequent (Marcogliese, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lernaea cyprinacea (Crustacea: Copepoda) in the Iberian Peninsula: climate implications on host–parasite interactions

Sánchez‐Hernández

2017

Knowl. Manag. Aquat. Ecosyst.

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-The non-native parasitic anchor worm (Lernaea cyprinacea) may induce anaemia, malformations, reduced growth and increased susceptibility to secondary infection to its hosts. The objectives of this study were to (i) compile a list of the host species of L. cyprinacea in the Iberian Peninsula and (ii) assess if climate may impact on infestation levels of the parasite. There were two primary sources for data collection: (i) fish sampling in the Tormes Basin (Ávila, central Spain) during August 2010 and 2016 and (ii) data retrieved from publications containing relevant information about L. cyprinacea. Eleven temperature variables were obtained from Worldclim. Next, the relationship between infestation levels of the anchor worm (prevalence, intensity and abundance) and temperature was tested using mixed models. Fifteen cyprinids species among 18 species are host of L. cyprinacea in the Iberian Peninsula. Infestation levels of the anchor worm are highly connected to temperature. Finally, the possible implications of global warming for host-parasite interactions are discussed.Keywords: alien species / ectoparasite / fish host / global warming / mixed models Résumé -Lernaea cyprinacea (Crustacea: Copepoda) dans la péninsule ibérique : implications climatiques sur les interactions hôte-parasite. Le copépode parasite (Lernaea cyprinacea) non indigène peut induire une anémie, des malformations, une croissance réduite et une sensibilité accrue à une infection secondaire de ses hôtes. Les objectifs de cette étude étaient de (i) dresser une liste des espèces hôtes de L. cyprinacea dans la péninsule ibérique et (ii) évaluer si le climat peut avoir un impact sur les niveaux d'infestation du parasite. Il y avait deux sources principales de collecte de données : (i) l'échantillonnage des poissons dans le bassin de Tormes (Ávila, centre de l'Espagne) en août 2010 et 2016, et (ii) des données provenant de publications contenant des informations pertinentes sur L. cyprinacea. Onze variables de température ont été obtenues auprès de Worldclim. Ensuite, la relation entre les niveaux d'infestation du copépode (prévalence, intensité et abondance) et la température a été testée en utilisant des modèles mixtes. Quinze cyprinidés parmi dix-huit espèces sont hôtes de L. cyprinacea dans la péninsule ibérique. Les niveaux d'infestation de la lernée sont fortement liés à la température. Enfin, les implications possibles du réchauffement climatique pour les interactions hôte-parasite sont discutées.

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The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

Cited by 335 publications

References 40 publications

Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level

Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level

European climate change at global mean temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial conditions as simulated by the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

Lernaea cyprinacea (Crustacea: Copepoda) in the Iberian Peninsula: climate implications on host–parasite interactions

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