The Future Population of Canada, Its Age Distribution and Dependency Relations

Abstract

Population aging has become a subject of widespread popular and academic interest. In providing an assessment of the extent of aging that is in prospect, this paper makes available a number of projections of the age-sex distribution of the Canadian population for the 45-year period 1996 to 2041 and comparisons with the previous 45-year period. The projections combine assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and migration so as to produce future populations characterized as “medium,” “old,” “young,” “high immigration” and “low immigration”. Supplementary calculations include growth rates, for both the total population and selected age groups, and various types of dependency ratios, including ones with a range of age-differentiated weights. It is concluded that substantial aging of the Canadian population appears virtually certain but, based on the demographic evidence, the “dependency burden” is likely to remain below the peak levels attained during the baby boom.

The allocation of responsibility for later life: Canadian reflections on the roles of individuals, government, employers and families

“…These shift greater responsibility for societal and personal economic and social security on to the individual and the market. Even though analysts have demonstrated that projected dependency ratios will not bankrupt the welfare state (Denton, Feaver and Spencer 1998;Denton and Spencer 1997), and that the senior population is responsible for neither escalating health care costs (Barer, Evans and Hertzman 1995) nor depletions of the Canadian pension fund (Finlayson 1988), it is often presented as fact that the ageing of the population will incite a social and fiscal crisis (see Gee and Gutman 2000 ;Gee 2000). This ' fact ' serves as an ideological tool to shift greater responsibility for societal and personal and social security onto the individual.…”

Low Fertility, Institutions, and their Policies

“…Although Canada's old-age dependency ratio is still substantially lower than the youth dependency ratio, they are expected to cross over as soon as 2021 (Denton et al 2000). Clearly, with the population distribution becoming increasingly rectangular, these two populations have very different needs.…”

Politiques sociales, changements économiques et démographiques et vieillissement de la population canadienne : leurs interactions

“…Pour Easterlin, les chances et contraintes des individus sont contenues dans l'effectif de leur cohorte de naissance. Dans ce sillage, on accorde de plus en plus d'attention, en démographie et en économie, au cycle de vie, aux modes de consommation selon l'âge, à l'épar-gne et à la notion de risque (Denton et Spencer, 1998Hall, 2002;McDaniel, 2002). La démographie déterminerait ainsi l'économie.…”

“…Malgré l'importance politique évidente de cette question, on a 1989-1990 1998-2002 1989-1990 1998-2002 1989-1990 1998-2002 Population 15 | | négligé de comparer les coûts sociaux relatifs (publics et privés) des enfants et des personnes âgées. Denton et Spencer (1998), qui l'ont fait, concluent que la dépendance de l'ensemble de la population canadienne ne dépasserait son niveau des années du baby-boom que si le coût collectif des personnes âgées atteignait le triple de celui des jeunes. D'autres données montrent qu'on ne peut sans risques fonder des politiques sur la notion démographique de dépendance.…”