C43, C53, J10, Mortality, life expectancy, stochastic forecasting,

We construct cohort working life tables for Canadian men and women aged 50 and older and, for comparison, corresponding

Canada's demographic situation in the future will differ substantially from what we have known in the past. Unless there is an early return to high fertility the average age of both the population and the labour force will increase substantially, while the overall dependency ratio will be low by historical standards. Our analysis suggests that up to about 2010 population change will have less of an impact on the real (i.e., constant—price) level of aggregate government expenditures than on the size of the real gross national product However, we can anticipate compositional changes in government expenditures as a result of population change: very large increases in the real social security costs, lesser (but still large) increases in health costs, and a reduction in education costs. Finally, a relatively large portion of the aggregate expenditure increases will be at the federal government level.

Population aging has become a subject of widespread popular and academic interest. In providing an assessment of the extent of aging that is in prospect, this paper makes available a number of projections of the age-sex distribution of the Canadian population for the 45-year period 1996 to 2041 and comparisons with the previous 45-year period. The projections combine assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and migration so as to produce future populations characterized as “medium,” “old,” “young,” “high immigration” and “low immigration”. Supplementary calculations include growth rates, for both the total population and selected age groups, and various types of dependency ratios, including ones with a range of age-differentiated weights. It is concluded that substantial aging of the Canadian population appears virtually certain but, based on the demographic evidence, the “dependency burden” is likely to remain below the peak levels attained during the baby boom.

No abstract