The Growth of Demand for New Commodities

Bain, Andrew

doi:10.2307/2982371

Cited by 22 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Modifying the expressions to allow for a maturity level m i is well known to be straightforward, but for ease of notation we abstain from this for the moment. Allowing for an unknown maturity level requires replacing n i (t) by n i (t)/m i and N i (t) by N i (t)/m i in (2). Of course, in the empirical application in Section 4 we will take into account the maturity level.…”

Section: Multivariate Product Growth Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…where n * i (t) is defined in (2). The model implies that product growth n i (t) of country i may (permanently) deviate from the underlying path (n * i (t)) by a factor that is linear in the other country's product growth n j (t).…”

Section: Currently Available Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The target path in this model is exactly the path according to the Bass diffusion model (2). For the same reason we cannot allow the target paths of the two countries to be dependent on each other.…”

Section: A New Multivariate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Early references are Bain (1963), Mansfield (1961), and Tanner (1978) and they already cover a variety of application areas. At present, the analysis of diffusion data is most prominent in marketing and in management as it is widely recognized that diffusion data share common properties across products and across countries, which can be instrumental for marketing purposes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A New Multivariate Product Growth Model

2006

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To examine cross-country diffusion of new products, marketing researchers have to rely on a multivariate product growth model. We put forward such a model, and show that it is a natural extension of the original Bass (1969) model. We contrast our model with currently in use multivariate models and we show that inference is much easier and interpretation is straightforward. Especially if the number of countries is larger than two. In fact, parameter estimation can be done using standard commercially available software.We illustrate the benefits of our model relative to other models in simulation experiments.These experiments show that in the competing models the cross-country effects are actually very difficult to identify from the data. An application to a three-country CD sales series shows the merits of our model in practice.

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Section: Multivariate Product Growth Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Currently Available Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A New Multivariate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A New Multivariate Product Growth Model

2006

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“…The attributes of the logistic curve suggests that it has its greatest utility in analysing the consumption of new products exhibiting qualities of rapid market absorption; the classic example being the television (Bain, 1962(Bain, , 1963 As a consequence of these problems, forecasting procedures relying upon the extrapolation of past trends tend to be playing a decreasing role in transportation planning. Indeed, the suitability of the logistic curve for simulating the time trend in the motor-car market even at the national level seems to be in doubt (Barker, 1971).…”

Section: Time Series Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Critical Review of Techniques Used for Forecasting Car Ownership in Discrete Areas

Button¹

1974

The Statistician

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This paper presents a review of current “best practice” techniques used in forecasting future car ownership patterns within a particular area. The arguments offered make no claim to any great originality although, following a critique of the two most widely used procedures, a number of suggestions for improving such techniques are made. It is concluded that the current method of forecasting vehicular ownership independently of other models in the transport planning process is inadequate and that some form of larger interdependent system would seem more appropriate.

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Forecasting ski demand: comparing learning curve and varying parameter coefficient approaches

Riddington¹

1999

J. Forecast.

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Demand for skiing expanded rapidly in the 1980s, fell quite dramatically at the start of the 1990s as the economy declined but has not subsequently recovered. Two possible explanations are explored. The ®rst is based on perceiving skiing as a new product to most consumers, which reached maximum growth in 1989. Current levels now largely represent`repeat buyers'. The alternative approach sees the growth as the result of economic factors, particularly credit conditions. The importance of these factors was not, however, constant, and grew with the changes in the ®nancial system. Thus the recovery had a muted eect. These two approaches are modelled, estimated and the results compared by both residual and ex post forecasting analysis. The paper concludes that the varying coecient econometric model probably produces the most reliable forecasts.

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The Growth of Demand for New Commodities

Cited by 22 publications

References 3 publications

A New Multivariate Product Growth Model

A New Multivariate Product Growth Model

A Critical Review of Techniques Used for Forecasting Car Ownership in Discrete Areas

Forecasting ski demand: comparing learning curve and varying parameter coefficient approaches

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