The Hard Lessons and Shifting Modeling Trends of COVID-19 Dynamics: Multiresolution Modeling Approach

Akman, Olcay; Chauhan, Sudipa; Ghosh, Aditi; Liesman, Sara; Michael, Edwin; Mubayi, Anuj; Perlin, Rebecca; Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan; Tripathi, Jai Prakash

doi:10.1007/s11538-021-00959-4

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(51 reference statements)

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“… 2021 ), and hence, mathematical models of their effects and implications merit further study (Akman et al. 2022 ; Gharouni et al. 2022 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lab tests such as the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test and at-home rapid tests based either on molecular or on antigen technology have been used in many countries to detect infection cases and assist clinical diagnosis (Web 2022). Testing processes as well as prevention strategies and social behavior changes based on testing results have greatly affected the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic (Lyng et al 2021), and hence, mathematical models of their effects and implications merit further study (Akman et al 2022;Gharouni et al 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The importance of quarantine: modelling the COVID-19 testing process

Shu

Wang

et al. 2023

J. Math. Biol.

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We incorporate the disease state and testing state into the formulation of a COVID-19 epidemic model. For this model, the basic reproduction number is identified and its dependence on model parameters related to the testing process and isolation efficacy is discussed. The relations between the basic reproduction number, the final epidemic and peak sizes, and the model parameters are further explored numerically. We find that fast test reporting does not always benefit the control of the COVID-19 epidemic if good quarantine while awaiting test results is implemented. Moreover, the final epidemic and peak sizes do not always increase along with the basic reproduction number. Under some circumstances, lowering the basic reproduction number increases the final epidemic and peak sizes. Our findings suggest that properly implementing isolation for individuals who are waiting for their testing results would lower the basic reproduction number as well as the final epidemic and peak sizes.

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“… 2021 ), and hence, mathematical models of their effects and implications merit further study (Akman et al. 2022 ; Gharouni et al. 2022 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of quarantine: modelling the COVID-19 testing process

Shu

Wang

et al. 2023

J. Math. Biol.

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“…This dramatic resurgence of the pandemic following the decline in cases observed after the delta wave has had two consequences. First, it reinforced realization of the forbidding complexity of the transmission dynamics of SARS-Cov-2, and the continual need for refining knowledge regarding the effects of changes in the biological, behavioral, and epidemiological processes that affect disease transmission at different stages of the spread of the pandemic in a given setting [10][11][12][13][14]. Such gaps in knowledge after the delta wave included gaining a better understanding of the likely outcomes arising from continuance of transmission among unvaccinated subpopulations for pandemic persistence as well as for the emergence and spread of virus mutants [15,16], uncertainties regarding the protective efficacy of individual vaccines against different variants, including the impacts of breakthrough infections among vaccinated individuals [17], and critically the impact of a less than permanent operation of anti-viral immunity [18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

2022

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The advent and distribution of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 in late 2020 was thought to represent an effective means to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This optimistic expectation was dashed by the omicron waves that emerged over the winter of 2021/2020 even in countries that had managed to vaccinate a large fraction of their populations, raising questions about whether it is possible to use scientific knowledge along with predictive models to anticipate changes and design management measures for the pandemic. Here, we used an extended SEIR model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission sequentially calibrated to data on cases and interventions implemented in Florida until Sept. 24th 2021, and coupled to scenarios of plausible changes in key drivers of viral transmission, to evaluate the capacity of such a tool for exploring the future of the pandemic in the state. We show that while the introduction of vaccinations could have led to the permanent, albeit drawn-out, ending of the pandemic if immunity acts over the long-term, additional futures marked by complicated repeat waves of infection become possible if this immunity wanes over time. We demonstrate that the most recent omicron wave could have been predicted by this hybrid system, but only if timely information on the timing of variant emergence and its epidemiological features were made available. Simulations for the introduction of a new variant exhibiting higher transmissibility than omicron indicated that while this will result in repeat waves, forecasted peaks are unlikely to reach that observed for the omicron wave owing to levels of immunity established over time in the population. These results highlight that while limitations of models calibrated to past data for precisely forecasting the futures of epidemics must be recognized, insightful predictions of pandemic futures are still possible if uncertainties about changes in key drivers are captured appropriately through plausible scenarios.

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“…[36][37][38] Within the study of post-pandemic scenarios, it is paramount to establish models of multiple variants of COVID-19 that could coexist in an endemic setting, as our societies pursue proactive testing and vaccination strategies to mitigate the effects of the virus. [39] The need to study multiple coexisting variants has been documented for several years in the context of influenza. [40] Recent work by Lazebnik and Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky reinforces that such a need is even stronger for understanding the future course of the COVID-19 pandemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring a COVID‐19 Endemic Scenario: High‐Resolution Agent‐Based Modeling of Multiple Variants

Truszkowska

Zino

Butail

et al. 2022

Advcd Theory and Sims

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Our efforts as a society to combat the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic are continuously challenged by the emergence of new variants. These variants can be more infectious than existing strains and many of them are also more resistant to available vaccines. The appearance of these new variants cause new surges of infections, exacerbated by infrastructural difficulties, such as shortages of medical personnel or test kits. In this work, a high‐resolution computational framework for modeling the simultaneous spread of two COVID‐19 variants: a widely spread base variant and a new one, is established. The computational framework consists of a detailed database of a representative U.S. town and a high‐resolution agent‐based model that uses the Omicron variant as the base variant and offers flexibility in the incorporation of new variants. The results suggest that the spread of new variants can be contained with highly efficacious tests and mild loss of vaccine protection. However, the aggressiveness of the ongoing Omicron variant and the current waning vaccine immunity point to an endemic phase of COVID‐19, in which multiple variants will coexist and residents continue to suffer from infections.

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The Hard Lessons and Shifting Modeling Trends of COVID-19 Dynamics: Multiresolution Modeling Approach

Cited by 16 publications

References 39 publications

The importance of quarantine: modelling the COVID-19 testing process

The importance of quarantine: modelling the COVID-19 testing process

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

Exploring a COVID‐19 Endemic Scenario: High‐Resolution Agent‐Based Modeling of Multiple Variants

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