The Hazards of Starting and Quitting Smoking: Some Australian Evidence

Abstract

The empirical analysis employs individual level data from the Australian Health Survey combined with retrospective data on tobacco price matched to the age at which the individual started and quit smoking. Split‐population hazard models are estimated for both starting and quitting smoking. The analysis suggests price plays a significant role in the decision to start smoking but not in the decision to quit. Further sensitivity analysis of different age groups and an alternative data source, questions the robustness of the significant role of price in the smoking initiation decision. From a policy perspective, the results indicate that increases in tobacco taxation can be an important instrument in reducing the incidence of smoking, but should be combined with other mechanisms such as mandating smoke‐free environments and antismoking education. Our results strongly support the targeting of antismoking campaigns towards teenagers.

The effect of education on smoking behavior: new evidence from smoking durations of a sample of twins

“…The hazard rates of starting and quitting smoking are derived from the full sample and a sub-sample of 2,322 observations, respectively. Figure 2 shows that smoking durations mostly start at younger ages, between the age of 12 and 22, which is consistent with other studies (Boudarbat andMalhotra 2008, Kidd andHopkins 2004). The average starting age is 18 years.…”

“…This finding is similar to e.g. Kidd and Hopkins (2004) and Douglas (1998). Essentially, this hump shaped pattern may result from three sources: habit formation, selection effects and age effects.…”

“…This specification acknowledges the fact that some individuals may have very low smoking starting hazards and thus are very likely to never start smoking at all (this group constitutes 57% of our sample). More specifically, with one point of support equal to zero, the MPH model is equivalent to the more conventional split population model, where the probability of not starting smoking at all is estimated separately (Douglas and Hariharan 1994;Douglas 1998;Kidd and Hopkins 2004;Boudarbat and Malhotra 2008).…”

Cannabis prices and dynamics of cannabis use

“…22 For this reason, we tend to prefer the results that exclude the time trend. All in all, we conclude that 19 Perhaps the fact that there is no obvious solution to correct for clustering of price information in the duration model set-up is the reason for the absence of any discussion of the issue in papers that use the same methodology as we do but apply it to dynamics in tobacco smoking behavior and tobacco prices (Douglas and Hariharan, 1994;Douglas, 1998;Jones, 2001, 2003;Kidd and Hopkins, 2004;Nicolas, 2002). 20 The value of the LR test statistic is 7.4 compared to the critical value of 12.6 for a χ 2 0.05 with six degrees of freedom.…”

“…The benefits of using duration models to study transitions in drugs use are not unique to cannabis and these methods have been commonly applied in the literature on tobacco (Douglas and Hariharan, 1994;Douglas, 1998;Nicolas, 2002;Jones, 2001, 2003;DeCicca et al, 2002;Kidd and Hopkins, 2004). 5 As noted by Douglas (1998), in addition to being able to 2 In a similar vein, there is suggestive evidence that excessive alcohol use reduces educational attainment, and labor market success (Cook and Moore, 1993;Kenkel and Ribar, 1994;Hamilton and Hamilton, 1997).…”