The Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Variability: A Study in Central Himalayas

Thakural, L. N.; Kumar, Sanjay; Jain, Sanjay K.; Ahmad, Tanvear

doi:10.1007/978-981-10-5714-4_15

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Climate change has significantly affected global agriculture in the 21st century and future impacts are projected to worsen as the temperature continues to rise and precipitation becomes more unreliable (Ochieng et al., 2016). The intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events have increased in the last 50 years and the spatial pattern of the rainfall is likely to change, with rise in number and intensity of extreme rainfall events which adversely impact the natural resources on which majority of the population is dependent (Thakural et al., 2018). Hence, there is need to recognize the enormous impacts of CVC on agriculture.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The natural resource base on which men and women farmers depend on are altered, traditional socio-economic livelihoods stressed and the potential for future agricultural development are affected by CVC (Jost et al., 2016). In India, the meteorological records indicate rise in the mean annual surface air temperature by 0.4 °C with not much variations in absolute rainfall (Thakural et al., 2018). Developing countries especially in Africa are highly susceptible to the impacts (IPCC, 2014; Ford et al., 2015; Bryan et al., 2017; Connolly-Boutin and Smit, 2016; Perez et al., 2015; Sonwa et al., 2017) and the poor already struggle to cope (De Souza et al., 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of variability and change in rainfall on gender of farmers in Anambra, Southeast Nigeria

Nnadi

Liwenga

Lyimo

et al. 2019

Heliyon

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Men and women farmers experience different impacts of climate variability and change (CVC). Research on the differentiated impacts of variability and change in rainfall on gender is limited in the study area. This study examined perceptions and experience of men and women farmers on the impacts of CVC, using climate data and farmers' perception from a gender perspective. It examined the effect of CVC on annual and seasonal rainfall, number of rain days, onset and cessation of rainfall; perceived impacts of CVC on annual and seasonal rainfall and compared the measured (meteorological) impacts with the perceived impacts across gender. Mixed methods of qualitative and quantitative data collection and participatory rural approaches were used. Household survey of 50% men and 50% women each were conducted in six farming communities. Data analysis involved the use of annual rainfall trends, Annual Rainfall Anomaly (ARA), Standardized Annual Rainfall Anomaly (SARA), regression analysis percentages and chi-square. Results reveal the occurrences of more dry years than wet years (ARA and SARA <0.00) in the three locations. There were wide variability and changes in inter-annual rainfall in Ogbaru (R 2 = 0.0003), Anambra East (R 2 = 0.0071) and Ayamelum (R 2 = 0.0014). Seasonal rainfall was unevenly distributed from 2007-2016. There were wide variations in dates of onset and cessation of rainy season (R 2 = 0.006) and number of rain days (R 2 = 0.009). Men and women responses revealed that there were statistically significant (p < 0.005) changes in the onset of rainy season, early cessation of annual rainfall; alteration of growing seasons; frequent flooding and frequent drought. Women felt more impact of food insecurity, water shortage and had more burden of migration due to changes in rainfall. This study concludes that respondents perceived and experienced impacts of CVC which varied across gender. Hence, it recommends the provision of sustainable water and irrigation system which should encourage women's participation in the construction, maintenance and management among others.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of variability and change in rainfall on gender of farmers in Anambra, Southeast Nigeria

Nnadi

Liwenga

Lyimo

et al. 2019

Heliyon

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“…Aside from the natural variation in rainfall distribution, since the past few decades, it is being contemplated that climate change is further contributing to this variability [3]. This artificial climate variability is manifesting itself as droughts and floods in different parts of the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selection of CMIP6 Climate Models Using Statistical and Data Mining Approaches, Case of Upper Awash Sub-Basin (UASB), Ethiopia

Balcha¹,

Malcherek²,

Alamirew³

2022

Preprint

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Climate change is a phenomenon that makes the climate system of a given region to be more unpredictable and increases the risk of water-related problems. GCMs under the new CMIP6 framework holds several climate models with many improvements as compared to past similar efforts. The improvements are mainly in the number of scenarios formulated, setup, parametrization, and resolution. In this study, 10 downscaled climate models from CMIP6 are evaluated by applying statistical and data mining tools and are ranked based on their capability to describe the historical observed series. The result of the analysis showed that the outputs of the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model have a good overall ranking among those 10 models. The output of this top-ranked model is used to understand future climate over UASB after properly bias-corrected using the QM method. Results of the bias correction step show that average annual precipitation has shown an increment of 6.5\% in the middle (SSP2-4.5) and 10.3\% in the worst (SSP5-8.5) case scenarios for the mid-century (2040 - 2069). Similarly, for the end of the century (2070 - 2099) an increment of 4.7\% and 17.5\% was predicted for the two scenarios respectively. Whereas average annual maximum temperature series showed an increment of 1.5 $\degree C$ for middle and 2.6 $\degree C$ for the worst case in the mid-century. At the same time, an increment of 2.2 $\degree C$ and 3.5 $\degree C$ were predicted for the end of the century similarly for those scenarios. Furthermore, it was predicted that the average annual minimum temperature series will have an increment of 2.6 $\degree C$ and 3.1 $\degree C$ for mid-century and 3.1 $\degree C$ and 4.7 $\degree C$ for the end century for the two scenarios respectively. An increase in precipitation with increased land degradation problems in the sub-basin increases the risk of flood events in the future.

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“…Global agriculture in the 21 st century has significantly been affected by climate change and future impacts are projected to worsen as the temperature continues to rise and precipitation becomes more unreliable [9]. There was an increase in intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events in the last 50 years and the spatial pattern of the rainfall is likely to change, with rise in number and intensity of extreme rainfall events which adversely impact the natural resources on which majority of the population is dependent [10]. Hence, there is need to recognize the enormous impacts of variability in global climate and change on agriculture.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Impacts of variability in global climate and change on rainfall affect farmers in many regions, countries and developing countries including Africa. In India, the meteorological records indicate rise in the mean Dadin-Kowa of Gombe, Gombe State annual surface air temperature by 0.4°C with not much variations in absolute rainfall [10]. Developing countries especially in Africa are highly susceptible to the impacts [11][12][13][14][15][16] and the poor already struggle to cope [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Farmers’ Perception on the Effect of Rainfall Variability on Rice Yield in Dadin-Kowa of Gombe, Gombe State

Noel¹,

Omar²,

Kawu³

et al. 2020

IJA

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This work examines famers' perception on the effect of rainfall variability on rice yield in Dadin-kowa, Yamaltu Deba Local Government Area of Gombe State. Nigeria. Data for the study were collected via questionnaire survey of 60 respondents and it also covered and relates with daily rainfall data for a period of Seventeen (17) years, 2001 to 2017 from Upper Benue River Basin Dadin-kowa Meteorological Centre. Frequency table and percentages was used to access the Indepth knowledge and the perceived effects of climate change, rainfall variability to be précised, on rice production. While the analysis using Cumulative Rainfall Model clearly demonstrates delay in onset of rainy season, early cessation of rainy season and shortening of the length of hydrological growing season. The result further reveals 30 th May as the onset mean date, the cessation mean date is 12 th October and hydrological growing season is having a mean of 137 days. Farmers make sequential decision: Adjusting planting timing in response to delays in the onset of rainy season while changing crop variety responding to delay in the end of previous year's rainy season. The findings of the study show that the decrease in yield of rice is the immediate impacts of rainfall variability. Thus a study understanding farmers' perception on the effects of rainfall variability on rice yield can prove extremely valuable.

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The Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Variability: A Study in Central Himalayas

Cited by 10 publications

References 23 publications

Impacts of variability and change in rainfall on gender of farmers in Anambra, Southeast Nigeria

Impacts of variability and change in rainfall on gender of farmers in Anambra, Southeast Nigeria

Selection of CMIP6 Climate Models Using Statistical and Data Mining Approaches, Case of Upper Awash Sub-Basin (UASB), Ethiopia

Farmers’ Perception on the Effect of Rainfall Variability on Rice Yield in Dadin-Kowa of Gombe, Gombe State

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