The Impact of El Nino on Inflation in Regional Indonesia: Spatial Panel Approach

Ahmad, Fahmi Salam; Siregar, Hermanto; Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat

doi:10.15408/sjie.v8i1.7130

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…El Nino can cause changes in rain and drought patterns, which can affect the short-term decline in agricultural production that is vulnerable to it. Declining agricultural production leads to food shortages, followed by rising food prices and inflation (Ahmad et al, 2019). This is supported by Siregar et al (2020) discovered that El Nino as a non-economic factor impedes production in the micro and small industrial sectors where the provinces studied mostly processed food crop production into the output of the micro and small industrial sector.…”

Section: Climate Change and The Development Of Factors Affecting Food...mentioning

confidence: 96%

The Production of Food Commodities in Indonesia: Climate Change and Other Determinants

Siregar

Asmara

2022

J. AGRISEP: Kaj. Mas. Sos. Ek. Pert. n. Agr.

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Climate change has become a global issue since it has a wide range of effects on a country's socioeconomic situations, including food security. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic change phenomenon in Indonesia that has three phases: El Nino, Normal, and La Nina. This phenomenon has an impact on rainfall intensity, which bring another impact on the agricultural sector, particularly the sub-sector of food crops. This study uses static panel data methods to examine the impact of climate change and other determinants on food production such as rice, corn, and soybeans. The cross-sectional data are concentrated on the provinces of Java that have become the production centers of rice, corn and soybeans, and the other four provinces with the highest yields of the above three products, and the time data series used from 2009 to 2017.The results obtained show that El Nino has a significant effect on decreasing rice and corn production and increasing soybean production. While La Nina has a significant effect on increasing the production of the three commodities studied. Fertilizer subsidy has a significant effect on increasing the production of the three commodities studied meanwhile productivity significantly impact rice and corn productions.

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Section: Climate Change and The Development Of Factors Affecting Food...mentioning

confidence: 96%

The Production of Food Commodities in Indonesia: Climate Change and Other Determinants

Siregar

Asmara

2022

J. AGRISEP: Kaj. Mas. Sos. Ek. Pert. n. Agr.

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“…The formulation of the model refers to the research of Fajri et al (2019) entitled the impact of El Nino and La Nina on food prices in affected areas by adding several additional variables according to the research context and differences in the commodities studied. This research includes an update in the form of an element of spatial interaction which refers to the research ofAhmad et al (2019). The equation model in this study are as follow:…”

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confidence: 99%

The Impact of El Nino and La Nina Towards The Prices of Cabbage and Shallot in Indonesia

Fitriana

Siregar²,

Anggraeni³

2022

jma

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This study examines the impact of El Nino and La Nina on cabbage and shallot prices by applying the spatial correlation analysis method with 34 provinces from 2010 to 2020 to classify affected areas. The next method is a spatial panel with the main variables: rainfall as an indicator of El Nino and La Nina, commodity prices, spatial effects, and other supporting variables such as income, productivity, wages, and COVID-19 dummy. To get the output model, it is necessary to analyze the selection of the best model between the Structural Equation Model and the Spatial Autoregressive. The results of the study provide findings: (1) there are 16 provinces affected by El Nino and La Nina in Indonesia;(2) the best spatial panel model used is Spatial Autoregressive with the resulting La Nina has a large effect on increasing of cabbage and shallots prices because excess soil water content will cause crops and bulbs to rot easily. The spatial aspect has a significant influence, meaning that the price of cabbage and shallots in one area will affect the prices of the two commodities in other areas through distribution patterns. Policy implications of the impact of El Nino and La Nina in this study are classified into managerial, mitigation, and adaptation strategies including the policy of the Regional Inflation Control Team in the form of inter-regional cooperation.

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Climate-based cluster analysis in East Java

Sampe,

Ginting,

Juwono

et al. 2024

AIP Conference Proceedings

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The Impact of El Nino on Inflation in Regional Indonesia: Spatial Panel Approach

Cited by 3 publications

References 13 publications

The Production of Food Commodities in Indonesia: Climate Change and Other Determinants

The Production of Food Commodities in Indonesia: Climate Change and Other Determinants

The Impact of El Nino and La Nina Towards The Prices of Cabbage and Shallot in Indonesia

Climate-based cluster analysis in East Java

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