The impact of future power generation on cement demand: An international and regional assessment based on climate scenarios

Hache, Emmanuel; Simoën, Marine; Seck, Gondia Sokhna; Bonnet, Clément; Jabberi, Aymen; Carcanague, Samuel

doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2020.05.002

Cited by 39 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Flooring dead loads vary from 0.1 to 3.5 kN/m 2 , with walls/partitions having a similar range. As concrete is the most common building material in the world (e.g., Hache et al, 2020), I use a 2.0 kN/m 2 value for dead loads, which is in the middle range for concrete flooring and walls (this could cause a small bias for suburban residential housing, which tends to be lighter wood frame on concrete foundations in the Bay region). The cumulative mass of a building in kg is then found by combining live and dead load forces, dividing by the gravitational constant, and then multiplying by the cumulative building area.…”

Section: Calculating the Weight Of A Citymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Weight of Cities: Urbanization Effects on Earth's Subsurface

Parsons

2021

AGU Advances

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Across the world, people increasingly choose to live in cities. By 2050, 70% of Earth's population will live in large urban areas. Upon considering a large city, questions arise such as, how much does that weigh? What are its effects on the landscape? Does it cause measurable subsidence? Here I calculate the weight of San Francisco Bay region urbanization, where 7.75 million people live at, or near the coast. It is difficult to account for everything that is in a city. I assume that most of the weight is buildings and their contents, which allows the use of base outline and height data to approximate their mass, which is cumulatively 1.6•10 12 kg. I build a series of finite element models to study effects of pressure exerted by the weight distribution. Within the elastic realm, I look at compression, flexure, isostatic compensation, stress change, dilatation, and fluid flow changes. Within the nonlinear realm I show example calculations of primary and secondary settlement of soils under load. The combined modeled subsidence from building loads is at least 5-80 mm, with the largest contributions coming from nonlinear settlement and creep in soils. A general result is closing of pore space and redirection of pore fluids. While the calculated subsidence of the Bay Area is relatively small compared with other sources of elevation change such as pumping and recharge of aquifers, all sources of subsidence are concerning given an expected 200-300 mm sea level rise at San Francisco by the year 2050. Plain Language Summary By the year 2050, 70% of Earth's population will live in cities. The belongings and needs of these growing populations concentrate mass over relatively small areas. In this paper, I calculate the weight of a metropolitan region and study the changes to the solid earth beneath it using numerical modeling techniques. I find that the subsidence under this weight is not insignificant and that it adds to other causes of urban subsidence, such as ground water pumping. As global populations move disproportionately toward the coasts, this additional subsidence in combination with expected sea level rise may exacerbate risk associated with inundation. Human activity is observed to affect the Earth's crust. Mass concentrations associated with water reservoir impoundment are found to cause subsidence (e.g.,

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Section: Calculating the Weight Of A Citymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Weight of Cities: Urbanization Effects on Earth's Subsurface

Parsons

2021

AGU Advances

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“…At this point, we have not even considered yet that, in order to produce such additional amounts of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and other devices, a massive investment into additional production capacity is needed, which significantly increases the consumption of concrete, steel, and aluminum [54]. According to Shang [55], 1.5 MW installed wind capacity needs 400 m 3 concrete with a carbon footprint of 0.54 t CO 2 /ton, i.e., 225 kg/m 3 [56,57]. Our calculations yield about 900-1500 tons of CO 2 resulting from concrete production.…”

Section: Carbon Bow Wavementioning

confidence: 99%

The Future Is Colorful—An Analysis of the CO2 Bow Wave and Why Green Hydrogen Cannot Do It Alone

Döllen¹,

Hwang

Schlüter

2021

Energies

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In both the private and public sectors, green hydrogen is treated as a promising alternative to fossil energy commodities. However, building up production capacities involves significant carbon production, especially when considering secondary infrastructure, e.g., renewable power sources. The amount of required capacity as well as the carbon production involved is calculated in this article. Using Germany as an example we show that the switch to purely green hydrogen involves significant bow waves in terms of carbon production as well as financial and resource demand. An economic model for an optimal decision is derived and—based on empirical estimates—calibrated. It shows that, even if green hydrogen is a competitive technology in the future, using alternatives like turquoise hydrogen or carbon capture and storage is necessary to significantly reduce or even avoid the mentioned bow waves.

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“…Based on fixed assets investment, urbanization rate and per capita GDP, respectively, Wei et al [2] projected China's cement production would reach 2,000 Mt, 1,650 Mt and 937 Mt by 2030. Recently Hache et al [11] studied the impacts of future power generation on cement demand based on climate scenario on a global level, while Elshkaki [12] has estimated cement demand, among oter materials, required for the future electricity generation in China based on several national and international scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy-Cement-Carbon Emission Nexus and its Implications for Future Urbanization in China

Shen¹,

Zhong²,

Elshkaki³

et al. 2021

J. sustain. dev. energy water environ. syst.

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With rapid urbanization and the requirements for new buildings and infrastructure, cement production is expected to increase in China. Meanwhile, China's energy consumption and carbon emissions associated with cement industry are expected to increase, as cement production is one of the most energy intensive industries. Introducing new and more pertinent technologies with better management, as indicated by government goals and measures, can improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emission. However, many challenges and uncertainties in the cement industry have been addressed without considering several interconnected processes among sectors including industry, energy, construction, and services, which lead to little improvements in the industry. Nexus approaches are recognized as effective methods to simultaneously

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The impact of future power generation on cement demand: An international and regional assessment based on climate scenarios

Cited by 39 publications

References 35 publications

The Weight of Cities: Urbanization Effects on Earth's Subsurface

The Weight of Cities: Urbanization Effects on Earth's Subsurface

The Future Is Colorful—An Analysis of the CO2 Bow Wave and Why Green Hydrogen Cannot Do It Alone

Energy-Cement-Carbon Emission Nexus and its Implications for Future Urbanization in China

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