The Impact of Match Location and Players’ Physical and Technical Activities on Winning in the German Bundesliga

Abstract

This study aimed to examine whether the physical and technical activities of soccer players and match locations can be associated with higher or lower odds of winning matches whose outcome can be described as “close.” The study comprised 7972 individual observations of German Bundesliga players during the 2014/2015 ( n = 2794), 2015/2016 ( n = 2494), and 2016/2017 ( n = 2684) seasons. A selection of “close matches” was made, which were defined as those in which the difference in numbers of scored goals was ≤1. Players’ five pitch positions were considered: central defenders, fullbacks, central midfielders, wide midfielders, and forwards. Data on 12 physical and 10 technical activities performed by players during matches as well as on match location were retrieved from the Impire AG (Germany) match analysis system. The study results show that the odds of winning at home are different for each playing position: from 41.99% for wide midfielders to 91.34% for central midfielders. Another conclusion was that one of the key components of the predictive model for forwards is the percentage of overall distance covered at speeds >24 km/h (7.99%), which is a variable with an increasing trend. The proposed model predicts that each 1% increase in this variable will theoretically be associated with a 4.08% raise of the odds of winning in further seasons. The presented statistical model may be used by trainers to identify players’ physical and technical activities and contextual variables that may significantly affect the match outcome. In addition, it can help to determine the individual training load related to the player’s position on the pitch.

Is there meaningful influence from situational and environmental factors on the physical and technical activity of elite football players? Evidence from the data of 5 consecutive seasons of the German Bundesliga

“…In addition, when a team is stronger than their opponent, duels and lost duels performed by FW decline. This result also contradicts those obtained by Konefał et al [53] in the Bundesliga, where players in this position in close games performed more technical and physical activity in won matches. The difference may be due to the fact that in these studies, all matches with a greater goal advantage were considered, so the forwards could be less motivated to be more active in the match.…”

“…Analysing individual positions, this situational factor leads to more duels performed and won by CD. This result is contrary to what has already been established in the literature, where players try to decrease the unnecessary risk of losing the ball, especially in these positions [53]. In turn, players in lateral positions-FB and WM-performed more crosses.…”

“…Home advantage in football has been discussed in depth and it is believed to affect the choice of tactic and strategy in competition, hence has an influence on the technical and physical match performance of players [ 9 , 14 , 53 ]. Based on the data of team performance in the Chinese Super League of football, Zhou and colleagues [ 35 ] pointed out that the influence of home advantage mainly occurs in technical activities rather than physical ones.…”

Quantifying and modelling the game speed outputs of English Championship soccer players

“…Therefore, other independent variables could be taken into consideration by sports scientists and coaches to construct potentially more informative game-speed models. Future studies could also analyse how players' physical, technical activities, players and team game speed as well as contextual variables may affect the match outcome (Konefał et al, 2020).…”

Effects of Match Location, Quality of Opposition and Match Outcome on Match Running Performance in a Portuguese Professional Football Team

“…Nevertheless, interpreting match running performance should consider the influence of contextual, environmental or situational factors [24,[53][54][55]. Studies have pointed to a strong influence of contextual factors on the match running performances from top football national leagues and continental competitions [24,30,[56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64]. Hence, independent and interactive potential effects have been reported for match running performance according to match location, quality of opposition and match status in professional football [59,65].…”