The impact of socio-economic indicators on COVID-19: an empirical multivariate analysis of sub-Saharan African countries

Tamasiga, Phemelo; Guta, Ashenafi Teshome; Onyeaka, Helen; Kalane, Maureen Sindisiwe

doi:10.1007/s40847-022-00184-2

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Recent studies attest to the rapid spread of COVID-19 around the world, with countries locking down cities, restricting travel and implementing stringent security measures. These have an impact on the environment and carbon emissions [56][57][58], while holding back economic development [59][60][61]. Therefore, we want to study the impact of carbon emissions on the economy so that policymakers can make appropriate policies to strike a balance between economic development and environmental protection.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chinese Economic Growth Projections Based on Mixed Data of Carbon Emissions under the COVID-19 Pandemic

Xie

Liu

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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Current research on carbon emissions and economic development has tended to apply more homogeneous low-frequency data to construct VAR models with impulse responses, ignoring some of the sample information in high-frequency data. This study constructs a MIDAS model to forecast GDP growth rate based on monthly carbon emission data and quarterly GDP data in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that: (1) The MIDAS model has smaller RMSE than the VAR model in short-term forecasting, and provides more stable real-time forecasts and short-term forecasts of quarterly GDP growth rates, which can provide more accurate reference intervals; (2) China’s future macroeconomic growth rate has recently declined due to the impact of the sudden epidemic, but the trend is generally optimistic. By improving urban planning and other methods, the authorities can achieve the two-carbon goal of carbon capping and carbon neutrality at an early date. In the context of the impact of COVID-19 on China’s economic development, we need to strike a balance between ensuring stable economic growth and ecological protection, and build environmentally friendly cities, so as to achieve sustainable economic and ecological development and enhance human well-being.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chinese Economic Growth Projections Based on Mixed Data of Carbon Emissions under the COVID-19 Pandemic

Xie

Liu

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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“…In order to reduce the effect of yearly fluctuations in the data, we have taken moving averages of three years (i.e., 2018 to 2020 for the food security indicators). Moreover, we used the moving averages of three years because there were several missing values in the yearly data, a similar approach was employed in the study of Tamasiga et al, [23] who investigated the impact of socio-economic indicators on COVID-19 and Mihoub et al, [12] who applied machine learning techniques in order to make predictions of cases of COVID-19.…”

Section: Dependent Variables/food Security Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food insecurity and outcomes during COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

Onyeaka

Tamasiga²,

Nkoutchou³

et al. 2022

Agric & Food Secur

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The outbreak of COVID-19 led to the implementation of lockdowns and social distancing regulations to curb the spread of infections. Consequently, the lockdowns impeded the movement of smallholder farmers, agricultural inputs, and food products thereby disrupting the food supply chains in SSA. Therefore, this paper examines the relationship between food security indicators (accessibility, availability, utilization, stability) and COVID-19. This study uses ordinary least square regression (OLS) models to study the relationship between the food security indicators and COVID-19. The study considers 9 out of 48 sub-Saharan African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal) due to data availability restrictions. The result of the analysis indicated that a rise in COVID-19 levels negatively impacts all the 4 indicators of food security without exception. This paper underscores the need to consider the disruptions of food security indicators such as diet, nutritional content, access and availability, affordability, and food supply chains. Moreover, the paper discusses mitigating strategies that may alleviate SSA’s food security amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. We recommend that SSA countries invest in quality agricultural and food production infrastructure and supporting industries that contribute directly to the food supply chain, such as agro-processing, fertilizer production and transport. Another important dimension of the COVID-19 and food insecurity syndemic is the income shocks that occurred as a consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak. Like many factories, companies, and service providers closed shop (especially the informal sector), people lost their incomes as a result of loss of employment and, in many instances, no social protection. Therefore, we recommend that SSA governments develop affordable, sustainable, and targeted social protection/insurance systems that extend to the informal sector of the economy.

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“…This study is expected to make several contributions to the literature. First, different from other studies measuring the economic impacts of the pandemic on domestic economic loss (Tamasiga et al, 2022;Famiglietti and Leibovici, 2022;Zhang et al, 2021;Meltzer et al, 1999), we focus on the trade friction that arises with protectionism after the economic slump caused by the pandemic. Although this issue has attracted attention (Rammal et al, 2022;Khorana et al, 2022), in-depth investigation is required, especially on its impact on global economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Friction or cooperation? Boosting the global economy and fighting climate change in the post-pandemic era

Yang,

Wei,

2023

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

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In the post-COVID-19 pandemic era, the world faces a choice between trade protection and cooperation. However, current literature provides very little information on the benefit or loss of trade friction or cooperation on global economy and climate mitigation. This study applied the Global Trade Analysis Project model to assess the impacts of trade friction on global economic recovery and climate change. The results indicated that international trade friction can both delay global economic recovery and affect CO2 emission reduction. The shocks of consumption reduction and production suspension have a higher marginal effect in developing and emerging economies, whereas trade friction has a higher effect on developed countries. Trade friction has more negative economic effects for developed countries, but developing countries cannot reduce CO2 emissions proportionally with the decrease in trade and related production. In the post-pandemic era, if the global trade barrier increases, the world may face a co-occurring economic decline and an increase in or low abatement of carbon emissions.

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The impact of socio-economic indicators on COVID-19: an empirical multivariate analysis of sub-Saharan African countries

Cited by 4 publications

References 15 publications

Chinese Economic Growth Projections Based on Mixed Data of Carbon Emissions under the COVID-19 Pandemic

Chinese Economic Growth Projections Based on Mixed Data of Carbon Emissions under the COVID-19 Pandemic

Food insecurity and outcomes during COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

Friction or cooperation? Boosting the global economy and fighting climate change in the post-pandemic era

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