The impact of the 2003 heat wave on daily mortality in England and Wales and the use of rapid weekly mortality estimates

Abstract

This paper describes a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality in England and Wales, and compares this with rapid estimates based on the Office for National Statistics routine weekly deaths reporting system. Daily mortality data for 4 to 13 August 2003, when temperatures were much hotter than normally seen in England, were compared with averages for the same period in years 1998 to 2002. The August 2003 heat wave was associated with a large short-term increase in mortality, particularly in London. Ozone and particulate matter concentrations were also elevated during the heat wave. Overall, there were 2139 (16%) excess deaths in England and Wales. Worst affected were people over the age of 75 years. The impact was greatest in the London region where deaths in those over the age of 75 increased by 59%. Estimated excess mortality was greater than for other recent heat waves in the United Kingdom. The estimated number of deaths registered each week is reported by the Office for National Statistics. The first clear indication of a substantial increase in deaths was published on 21 August 2003. This provided a quick first estimate of the number of deaths attributable to the heat wave and reflected the pattern of daily deaths in relation to the hottest days, but underestimated the excess when compared with the later analysis.

The impact of regulations on overheating risk in dwellings

“…This increased mortality was related to high internal temperatures over an extended time period (Wright, A., Young, A. & Natarajan, S., 2005) and affected the most vulnerable in society, such as the elderly, infants and those with underlying health problems (Johnson et al, 2005). If such events are to become more common (which is predicted, with a similar event affecting southern Europe in 2007), this could have significant consequences for health, housing design (Wright, Young & Natarajan 2005) and arguably the regulatory framework in the built environment.…”

Ranking of interventions to reduce dwelling overheating during heat waves

“…However, climate change projections from the UK Met Office [1] suggest that in addition to increased mean temperatures there are likely to be more frequent and more intense extreme weather events, including heat waves. The European heat wave in August 2003 claimed the lives of over 35,000 people, more than 2,000 of which were in the UK, with over 600 in London [2]. The victims were mostly elderly and vulnerable and the situation was exacerbated by the urban heat island effect in major cities.…”

Modelling the impact of urbanisation on regional climate in the Greater London Area

“…This is particularly true as the magnitude of some of the reported changes in local climate (especially temperature) are comparable to those projected by future global and regional climate change (Changnon, 1992;Baker et al, 2002). Furthermore, such increases in temperature may exacerbate the effects of summer heat-waves, resulting in a range of consequences including increased mortality (Johnson et al, 2005) and air pollution (Stedman, 2004). The regional scale impact of urbanisation on temperature records also needs to be identified and isolated to improve our understanding of other processes which induce climate change (Kalnay and Cai, 2003).…”