The Impact of the Freight Transport Modal Shift Policy on China’s Carbon Emissions Reduction

Abstract

How to reduce the negative transport externalities, especially its carbon emissions, without having significant negative influence on economic and social development is the key for sustainable development in China. This paper explores the impacts of China’s recent modal shift policy on carbon emissions, summaries experience from China, and points out future development directions. The paper first compares the different energy consumption and carbon emissions between the road freight transport and the railways in China, and then has a scenarios analysis on China’s energy consumption and carbon emissions of the transport sector in 2025. The latest progress and major problems of modal shift policy in China are presented, and a methodology to address this problem is also proposed. Based on the methodology, we compare the benefits and costs brought by modal shift policy in the case of Ordos, Inner Mongolia. Based on the results, principles and suggestions on how to design and implement more efficient modal shift policy are proposed. We find that road transport is the most polluting mode among various modes of transport, and the railway transport has the least carbon emissions. Furthermore, the modal shift policy plays a positive role in carbon emissions, but the costs caused by the policy are higher than the benefits at some circumstances. Moreover, to achieve the sustainable modal shift policy by relying on the feasible market mechanism, together with scientific and effective regulation, instead of “one size for all” administrative policy, are likely the way forward.

The Influence of Power and Trust on the Initiation and Duration of Modal Shift Solutions

“…A modal shift from road to more energy-efficient transport modes, such as rail and sea, is one prioritised strategy for coping with sustainability goals [1,2]. Lower use of trucks reduces climate change, and limits congestion on roads and related local emissions, e.g., [3].…”

Comparative Analysis of Long-Distance Transportation with the Example of Sea and Rail Transport

“…When comparing two different means of transport, they should be linked with a parameter in which we can see the fuel demand dependence per load unit. This parameter may be of critical importance when choosing a measure by the contracting authority to reduce its "carbon footprint" [43]. In recent years, all sectors of the economy, including transport, have moved more towards reducing the pollution generated during the process.…”

Customized Approach to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculations in Railway Freight Transport

“…The EU is on the correct path to achieve its GHG emissions reduction goal for 2020 and yet has submitted a plan to further reduce emissions by at least 55% in 2030 [21][22][23]. Chen et al [24] discussed and analysed the energy consumption and carbon emissions of roads and railways in China's transport sector, and they modelled scenarios of that sector's energy consumption and carbon emissions until 2025. Wang et al [25] studied a reduction in emissions in the transport sector, discussed current trends between RFT and road and waterway freight transport, identified de-carbonation potentials for the transport sector, and predicted transport emissions under different scenarios.…”