The impacts of international migration on the UK’s ethnic populations

Lomax, Nik; Wohland, Pia; Rees, Phil; Norman, Paul

doi:10.1080/1369183x.2019.1577726

Cited by 26 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Table has presented results for a set of variants for each WRMP round. Lomax, Wohland, Rees, and Norman (, ) assessed the sensitivity of our ethnic population projections to high, mid and low assumptions about international migration. The high scenario implies just over a million more households than in the mid scenario, while low scenario envisages 2.5 million fewer households in 2101.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Household Forecasts for the Planning of Long‐Term Domestic Water Demand: Application to London and the Thames Valley

Rees

Clark

Nawaz

2020

Population Space and Place

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Methods for forecasting households in London and the Thames Valley were developed for input to forecasts of domestic water consumption. Households were forecast by ethnicity, size and property type. South Asian‐headed households consumed more water (per capita) than average. Forecast populations for 60 Local Authorities were extracted from a UK‐wide forecast and aggregated to six Water Resource Zones (WRZs). Household populations by age, sex and ethnicity were multiplied by trended headship rates to forecast households. Households were classified by size and property type using census microdata. Water demand was generated using modelled consumption rates, based on policy interventions. Between 2011 and 2101, the region will experience 85% growth in populations and 113% in households. The household growth will vary across WRZs between 54% and 126%. Water demand in London and the Thames Valley is forecast to grow by 90%, 69% and 46% under status quo, moderate and extreme conservation scenarios. The future growth in water demand under all scenarios poses a huge challenge for the region, already under water stress.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Population and Household forecasts are based on the Mid scenario, aligned with ONS, ‐based National Population Projections (Lomax et al, ; Rees et al, ).…”

Section: The Forecasts Of Householdsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Household Forecasts for the Planning of Long‐Term Domestic Water Demand: Application to London and the Thames Valley

Rees

Clark

Nawaz

2020

Population Space and Place

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Franklin, 2019; Zhang et al, 2019; Sander et al, 2015), population estimation and projection (e.g. Rees et al, 2012; Lomax et al, 2020) and measurement of key concepts and concerns of population geography such as segregation (e.g. Sabater et al, 2017; Catney, 2018; Olteanu et al, 2019).…”

Section: Methodological-to-epistemological Multilingualismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population geography I: Epistemological opportunities of mixed methods

Finney

2020

Progress in Human Geography

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Population geography is rightly recognised for its quantitative expertise. Yet, the methodological and epistemological diversification that has taken place within the sub-discipline alongside decades of theoretical developments has gone largely undiscussed. In this report, I suggest that population geography is methodologically multilingual and thus well placed to embrace mixed methods. This would bring epistemological opportunities for population geographers, advancing the sub-discipline and engagement beyond in academia and elsewhere. The confluence of theoretical and methodological developments, and global challenges that demand attention of population scholars, means the time is ripe to broaden the lens of population geographies through deliberate pursuit of mixed methods agendas.

show abstract

“…previous immigration flows, internal out-migration rates), constrained to national IPS/LTIM emigration tables. The LEEDS projections make use of published and commissioned 2001 and 2011 Census immigration tables by ethnicity based on citizenship information in the IPS data (Lomax et al 2018). Interpolation methods are used to estimate ethnic international migration for mid-year to mid-year intervals between censuses.…”

Section: Data and Methods Used In The Uk Sub-national Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Sub-National Population Projections: a Case Study for London and the Thames Valley

Rees

Clark

Wohland

et al. 2018

Appl. Spatial Analysis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Sub-national population projections help allocate national funding to local areas for planning local services. For example, water utilities prepare plans to meet future water demand over long-term horizons. Future demand depends on projected populations and households and forecasts of per household and per capita domestic water consumption in supply zones. This paper reports on population projections prepared for a water utility, Thames Water, which supplies water to over nine million people in London and the Thames Valley. Thames Water required an evaluation of the accuracy of the delivered projections against alternatives and estimates of uncertainty. The paper reviews how such evaluations have been made by researchers. The factors leading to variation in sub-national projections are identified. The methods, assumptions and results for English sub-national areas, used in five sets of projections, are compared. There is a consensus across projections about the future fertility and mortality but varying views about the future impact of internal and international migration flows. However, the greatest differences were between projections using ethnic populations and those using homogeneous populations. Areas with high populations of ethnic minorities were projected to grow faster when an ethnic-specific model was used. This result is important for assessing projections for countries housing diverse populations with different demographic profiles. Historic empirical prediction intervals are used to assess the uncertainty of the London and the Thames Valley projections. By 2101 the preferred projection suggests that the population of the Thames Water region will have grown by 85% within an 80% empirical prediction interval between 45 and 125%.

show abstract

The impacts of international migration on the UK’s ethnic populations

Cited by 26 publications

References 28 publications

Household Forecasts for the Planning of Long‐Term Domestic Water Demand: Application to London and the Thames Valley

Household Forecasts for the Planning of Long‐Term Domestic Water Demand: Application to London and the Thames Valley

Population geography I: Epistemological opportunities of mixed methods

Evaluation of Sub-National Population Projections: a Case Study for London and the Thames Valley

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About