The influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe

Dong, Bo; Dai, Aiguo

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2500-x

Cited by 255 publications

(221 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…S7 A and B) hastened increases in fire-season fuel aridity, consistent with observed increases in the number of consecutive dry days across the region (10). Natural climate variability, including a shift toward the cold phase of the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (35), was likely the dominant driver of observed regional precipitation trends (36) (Fig. S7 B and D).…”

supporting

confidence: 48%

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Abatzoglou

Williams

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,133

1,435

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Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.wildfire | climate change | attribution | forests W idespread increases in fire activity, including area burned (1, 2), number of large fires (3), and fire-season length (4, 5), have been documented across the western United States (US) and in other temperate and high-latitude ecosystems over the past half century (6, 7). Increased fire activity across western US forests has coincided with climatic conditions more conducive to wildfire (2-4, 8). The strong interannual correlation between forest fire activity and fire-season fuel aridity, as well as observed increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) (9), fire danger indices (10), and climatic water deficit (CWD) (11) over the past several decades, present a compelling argument that climate change has contributed to the recent increases in fire activity. Previous studies have implicated anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as a contributor to observed and projected increases in fire activity globally and in the western United States (12-19), yet no studies have quantified the degree to which ACC has contributed to observed increases in fire activity in western US forests.Changes in fire activity due to climate, and ACC therein, are modulated by the co-occurrence of changes in land management and human activity that influence fuels, ignition, and suppression. The legacy of twentieth century fire suppression across western continental US forests contributed to increased fuel loads and fire potential in many locations (20,21), ...

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supporting

confidence: 48%

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Abatzoglou

Williams

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,133

1,435

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“…4d) is responsible for the weakening of the Aleutian Low (Wendler et al 2014) and leads to positive correlations between TCO anomalies and SSTs over the eastern tropical and extratropical Pacific Ocean. There are also high correlations between North Pacific TCO and SST variations over the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean, which may be related to the non-local effects of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) (Parker et al 2007;Dong and Dai 2015). By contrast, the correlations (not shown) between zonal TCO anomalies averaged over northwestern North America and SSTs are of opposite sign to the correlations of zonal TCO anomalies over the North Pacific, suggesting that the SST changes have a significant contribution to the positive TCO trends over northwestern North America (Fig.…”

Section: The Impact Of the Surface Temperature On Zao Trendmentioning

confidence: 99%

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

et al. 2018

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Using various satellite-based observations, a linear ozone transport model (LOTM), a chemistry-climate model (WACCM3) and an offline chemical transport model (SLIMCAT), zonally asymmetric trends of the total column ozone (TCO) in the northern middle latitudes during winter for the period 1979-2015 are analyzed and factors responsible for the trends are diagnosed. The results reveal that there are significant negative TCO trends over the North Pacific and positive TCO trends over the northwestern North America. The zonally asymmetric TCO trends are mainly contributed by the trends in partial column ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) which are closely related to the long-term changes of geopotential height in the troposphere. Furthermore, the trends of geopontential height in the UTLS are mainly modulated by pattern changes in the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Cold Ocean-Warm Land (COWL) and the North Pacific (NP) index. Accordingly, the zonally asymmetric TCO trends can be largely reconstructed by the trends of the above three teleconnection patterns. Sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean can also exert a significant contribution to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends through their influence on the COWL and NP patterns. In addition, chemical ozone loss partially offsets the positive trends in zonal TCO anomalies over Central Siberia and enhances the positive TCO trends over northwestern North America. However, the contribution of chemical processes to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends is relatively smaller than that of dynamical transport effects. Interpreting the zonally asymmetric TCO trends and their responsible factors would be helpful for accurately predicting the stratospheric ozone return date in the northern middle latitudes.

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“…Annual average of the unfiltered AMO and IPO index were prepared. Then a 9-year moving average was applied twice to the time series following Dong and Dai (2015). Statistically significance of the correlation coefficient are evaluated by a two-tailed Student t test with autocorrelation being accounted for.…”

Section: Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Precipitation Characteristics in Bangladesh from 1950 to 2008

Endo

Matsumoto

Hayashi

et al. 2015

SOLA

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We analyzed trends in precipitation characteristics at 12 weather stations in Bangladesh using data from 1950 to 2008 and a non-parametric Mann-Kendall's tau test. It was found that the annual precipitation amount and the number of wet days tended to increase at almost all the stations. The number of days with weak precipitation (< 3 mm) showed increasing tendency; the number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 10 mm increased at three stations; and the number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 20 mm increased at two stations. Heavy rainfall index showed no clear trend, and was dominated by inter-annual and/or decadal variations. During the pre-monsoon season, seasonal precipitation amount and the number of wet days increased, and the number of days with weak precipitation (< 3 mm) also increased. Changes in the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons were insignificant.

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The influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe

Cited by 255 publications

References 59 publications

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

Trends in Precipitation Characteristics in Bangladesh from 1950 to 2008

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