The International Surface Pressure Databank version 2

Cram, Thomas; Compo, Gilbert P.; Yin, Xungang; Allan, R. J.; McColl, Chesley; Vose, Russell S.; Whitaker, Jeffrey S.; Matsui, N.; Ashcroft, Linden; Auchmann, Renate; Bessemoulin, P.; Brandsma, T.; Brohan, Philip; Brunet, Manola; Comeaux, Joseph; Crouthamel, R.; Gleason, B.; Groisman, P. Y.; Hersbach, Hans; Jones, Phil; Jónsson, Trausti; Jourdain, Sylvie; Kelly, Gail; Knapp, Kenneth R.; Kruger, Andries; Kubota, Hisayuki; Lentini, Gianluca; Lorrey, Andrew; Lott, Neal; Lubker, Sandra J.; Luterbacher, Jürg; Marshall, Gareth J.; Maugeri, Maurizio; Mock, Cary J.; Mok, Hing Yim; Nordli, Øyvind; Rodwell, M.J.W.; Ross, Thomas F.; Schuster, Douglas; Srnec, Lidija; Valente, M. A.; Vízi, Zsuzsanna; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Westcott, Nancy E.; Woollen, John S.; Worley, S. J.

doi:10.1002/gdj3.25

Cited by 115 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…We reconstructed monthly mean SLP and marine surface wind anomaly datasets on a 5°latitude-longitude grid for 1900-2014, based on an EOF decomposition (SI Materials and Methods). For SLP, we merged terrestrial SLPs in the International Surface Pressure Databank, version 3.2.9 (ISPD) (59), and marine SLPs in the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), Release 3.0 (60). Monthly mean SLP datasets from ERA-20C (28), HadSLP2 (61), and 20CRv2c (37) were also used for comparison.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

Tokinaga

Xie

Mukougawa

2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

120

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With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region. T he Arctic has warmed faster than the global average by a factor of 2 or more since the mid-20th century, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification. The recent temperature warming over the Arctic is strongly linked to a drastic reduction in sea ice extent since the 1970s, contributing to the Arctic amplification through positive ice-albedo feedbacks (1-3). A similar rapid warming occurred in the Arctic during the early 20th century (4-8). Compared with the recent warming, the early 20th-century Arctic warming (hereafter referred to as the early Arctic warming) is mysterious as greenhouse gas (GHG) radiative forcing was three to four times weaker than at present (9) and changes in sea ice extent were small (10). The comparison of these two warming epochs suggests that mechanisms other than GHG forcing are important for the early Arctic warming.Several hypotheses have been proposed for the early Arctic warming, including intensified natural forcing due to decreased volcanic aerosols and increased solar radiation (11, 12); increased cloud long-wave emissivity due to sulfate aerosols transported from Central Europe (6, 13); uncertain but possible reduction in the Arctic sea ice extent (4,5,14); variability of the North Atlantic ocean-ice-atmosphere system (15); and atmospheric internal variability (16). Neither coupled ocean-atmosphere models nor atmospheric models driven by historical radiative forcing and observed sea surface tempe...

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

Tokinaga

Xie

Mukougawa

2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

120

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“…This dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability spanning from 1851 to 2012, with a six-hourly temporal resolution and a 2.0 • grid spacing. This study adopts 20th Century Reanalysis Project version 2C, which uses the same model as version 2 with new sea ice boundary conditions from the COBE-SST2 (Hirahara et al, 2014), new pentad Simple Ocean Data Assimilation with sparse input (SODAsi.2) sea surface temperature fields (Giese et al, 2016) and additional observations from ISPD version 3.2.9 (Whitaker et al, 2004;Compo et al, 2013;Krueger et al, 2013;Hirahara et al, 2014;Cram et al, 2015).…”

Section: Meteorological Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble cloud-resolving modelling of a historic back-building mesoscale convective system over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems represent one of the most dangerous flash-flood-producing storms in the north-western Mediterranean area. Substantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades raises concerns over possible increases in frequency or intensity of these types of events as increased atmospheric temperatures generally support increases in water vapour content. However, analyses of the historical record do not provide a univocal answer, but these are likely affected by a lack of detailed observations for older events.In the present study, 20th Century Reanalysis Project initial and boundary condition data in ensemble mode are used to address the feasibility of performing cloud-resolving simulations with 1 km horizontal grid spacing of a historic extreme event that occurred over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915. The proposed approach focuses on the ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs that show strong convergence over the Ligurian Sea (17 out of 56 members) as these runs are the ones most likely to best simulate the event. It is found that these WRF runs generally do show wind and precipitation fields that are consistent with the occurrence of highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems, although precipitation peak amounts are underestimated. Systematic small north-westward position errors with regard to the heaviest rain and strongest convergence areas imply that the reanalysis members may not be adequately representing the amount of cool air over the Po Plain outflowing into the Ligurian Sea through the Apennines gap. Regarding the role of historical data sources, this study shows that in addition to reanalysis products, unconventional data, such as historical meteorological bulletins, newspapers, and even photographs, can be very valuable sources of knowledge in the reconstruction of past extreme events.

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“…Each of the 10 ensemble members of the ECMWF reanalyses is forced with a different realization of SST derived from the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset, version 2 (HadISST2), and the ensemble captures the uncertainty in the observed data sources (Hersbach et al 2015). 20CR and 20CRC differ in the sea ice, sea surface temperature, and surface pressure data that are used, although in the case of the latter this is only a version change of the International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD; Cram et al 2015).…”

Section: A Datasets Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Twentieth-Century Trends in the Annual Cycle of Temperature across the Northern Hemisphere

2017

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The annual cycle of surface air temperature is examined across Northern Hemisphere land areas (north of 258N) by comparing the results from the Climatic Research Unit Time Series (CRU TS) dataset against four reanalysis datasets: two versions of the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR and 20CRC) and two versions of the ECMWF Twentieth Century Reanalysis, version 2 (ERA-20C) and version 2c (ERA-20CM). The modulated annual cycle is adaptively derived from an ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) filter, and is used to define the phase and amplitude of the annual cycle. The EEMD method does not impose a simple sinusoidal shape of the annual cycle. None of the reanalysis simulations assimilates surface temperature or land-use data. However, they differ in the parameters that are included: both ERA-20C and 20CR assimilate surface pressure data; ERA-20C also includes surface wind data over the oceans; and ERA-20CM does not assimilate any of these synoptic data. It is demonstrated that synoptic variability is critical for explaining the trends and variability of the annual cycle of surface temperature across the Northern Hemisphere. The CMIP5 forcings alone are insufficient to explain the observed trends and decadal-scale variability, particularly with respect to the decline in the amplitude of the annual cycle throughout the twentieth century. The variability in the annual cycle during the latter half of the twentieth century was unusual in the context of the twentieth century, and was most likely related to large-scale atmospheric variability, although uncertainty in the results is greatest before about 1930.

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The International Surface Pressure Databank version 2

Cited by 115 publications

References 32 publications

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

Ensemble cloud-resolving modelling of a historic back-building mesoscale convective system over Liguria: the San Fruttuoso case of 1915

Twentieth-Century Trends in the Annual Cycle of Temperature across the Northern Hemisphere

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