A vortical hot tower route to tropical cyclogenesis Nicholls, M. E. ABSTRACT A nonhydrostatic cloud model is used to examine the thermomechanics of tropical cyclogenesis under realistic meteorological conditions. Observations motivate the focus on the problem of how a midtropospheric cyclonic vortex, a frequent by-product of mesoscale convective systems during summertime conditions over tropical oceans, may be transformed into a surface-concentrated (warm core) tropical depression. As a first step, the vortex transformation is studied in the absence of vertical wind shear or zonal flow.Within the cyclonic vorticity-rich environment of the mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) embryo, the simulations demonstrate that small-scale cumulonimbus towers possessing intense cyclonic vorticity in their cores [vortical hot towers (VHTs)] emerge as the preferred coherent structures. The VHTs acquire their vertical vorticity through a combination of tilting of MCV horizontal vorticity and stretching of MCV and VHT-generated vertical vorticity. Horizontally localized and exhibiting convective lifetimes on the order of 1 h, VHTs overcome the generally adverse effects of downdrafts by consuming convective available potential energy in their local environment, humidifying the middle and upper troposphere, and undergoing diabatic vortex merger with neighboring towers.During metamorphosis, the VHTs vortically prime the mesoscale environment and collectively mimic a quasi-steady diabatic heating rate within the MCV embryo. A quasi-balanced toroidal (transverse) circulation develops on the system scale that converges cyclonic vorticity of the initial MCV and small-scale vorticity anomalies generated by subsequent tower activity. The VHTs are found to accelerate the spinup of near-surface mean tangential winds relative to an approximate axisymmetric model that excises the VHTs. This upscale growth mechanism appears capable of generating a tropical depression vortex on time scales on the order of 1-2 days, for reasonable parameter choices.Further tests of the VHT paradigm are advocated through diagnoses of operational weather prediction models, higher resolution simulations of the current configuration, examination of disruption scenarios for incipient vortices, and a meteorological field experiment.

Historical reanalyses that span more than a century are needed for a wide range of studies, from understanding large‐scale climate trends to diagnosing the impacts of individual historical extreme weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) Project is an effort to fill this need. It is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and is facilitated by collaboration with the international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth initiative. 20CR is the first ensemble of sub‐daily global atmospheric conditions spanning over 100 years. This provides a best estimate of the weather at any given place and time as well as an estimate of its confidence and uncertainty. While extremely useful, version 2c of this dataset (20CRv2c) has several significant issues, including inaccurate estimates of confidence and a global sea level pressure bias in the mid‐19th century. These and other issues can reduce its effectiveness for studies at many spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, the 20CR system underwent a series of developments to generate a significant new version of the reanalysis. The version 3 system (NOAA‐CIRES‐DOE 20CRv3) uses upgraded data assimilation methods including an adaptive inflation algorithm; has a newer, higher‐resolution forecast model that specifies dry air mass; and assimilates a larger set of pressure observations. These changes have improved the ensemble‐based estimates of confidence, removed spin‐up effects in the precipitation fields, and diminished the sea‐level pressure bias. Other improvements include more accurate representations of storm intensity, smaller errors, and large‐scale reductions in model bias. The 20CRv3 system is comprehensively reviewed, focusing on the aspects that have ameliorated issues in 20CRv2c. Despite the many improvements, some challenges remain, including a systematic bias in tropical precipitation and time‐varying biases in southern high‐latitude pressure fields.

The transport and mixing characteristics of a large sample of air parcels within a mature and vertically sheared hurricane vortex are examined. Data from a high-resolution (2-km horizontal grid spacing) numerical simulation of real-case Hurricane Bonnie (1998) are used to calculate Lagrangian trajectories of air parcels in various subdomains of the hurricane (namely, the eye, eyewall, and near environment) to study the degree of interaction (transport and mixing) between these subdomains. It is found that 1) there is transport and mixing from the low-level eye to the eyewall that carries air possessing relatively high values of equivalent potential temperature ( e ), which can enhance the efficiency of the hurricane heat engine; 2) a portion of the low-level inflow of the hurricane bypasses the eyewall to enter the eye, and this air both replaces the mass of the low-level eye and lingers for a sufficient time (order 1 h) to acquire enhanced entropy characteristics through interaction with the ocean beneath the eye; 3) air in the mid-to upper-level eye is exchanged with the eyewall such that more than half the air of the eye is exchanged in 5 h in this case of a sheared hurricane; and 4) that one-fifth of the mass in the eyewall at a height of 5 km has an origin in the mid-to upper-level environment where e is much less than in the eyewall, which ventilates the ensemble average eyewall e by about 1 K. Implications of these findings for the problem of hurricane intensity forecasting are briefly discussed.

New objective methods are introduced that use readily available data to estimate various aspects of the two-dimensional surface wind field structure in hurricanes. The methods correlate a variety of wind field metrics to combinations of storm intensity, storm position, storm age, and information derived from geostationary satellite infrared (IR) imagery. The first method estimates the radius of maximum wind (RMW) in special cases when a clear symmetric eye is identified in the IR imagery. The second method estimates RMW, and the additional critical wind radii of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt winds for the general case with no IR scene-type constraint. The third method estimates the entire two-dimensional surface wind field inside a storm-centered disk with a radius of 182 km. For each method, it is shown that the inclusion of infrared satellite data measurably reduces error. All of the methods can be transitioned to an operational setting or can be used as a postanalysis tool.

The International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) is the world's largest collection of global surface and sea-level pressure observations. It was developed by extracting observations from established international archives, through international cooperation with data recovery facilitated by the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative, and directly by contributing universities, organizations, and countries. The dataset period is currently 1768-2012 and consists of three data components: observations from land stations, marine observing systems, and tropical cyclone best track pressure reports. Version 2 of the ISPD (ISPDv2) was created to be observational input for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) and contains the quality control and assimilation feedback metadata from the 20CR. Since then, it has been used for various general climate and weather studies, and an updated version 3 (ISPDv3) has been used in the ERA-20C reanalysis in connection with the European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations project (ERA-CLIM). The focus of this paper is on the ISPDv2 and the inclusion of the 20CR feedback metadata. The Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research provides data collection and access for the ISPDv2, and will provide access to future versions.