Biological factors, such as abundance and body size, may contribute directly to extinction risk and indirectly through their influence on other biological characteristics, such as geographic range size. Paleontological data can be used to explicitly test many of these hypothesized relationships, and general patterns revealed through analysis of the fossil record can help refine predictive models of extinction risk developed for extant species. Here, I use structural equation modeling to tease apart the contributions of three canonical predictors of extinction-abundance, body size, and geographic range size-to the duration of bivalve species in the early Cenozoic marine fossil record of the eastern United States. I find that geographic range size has a strong direct effect on extinction risk and that an apparent direct effect of abundance can be explained entirely by its covariation with geographic range. The influence of geographic range on extinction risk is manifest across three ecologically disparate bivalve clades. Body size also has strong direct effects on extinction risk but operates in opposing directions in different clades, and thus, it seems to be decoupled from extinction risk in bivalves as a whole. Although abundance does not directly predict extinction risk, I reveal weak indirect effects of both abundance and body size through their positive influence on geographic range size. Multivariate models that account for the pervasive covariation between biological factors and extinction are necessary for assessing causality in evolutionary processes and making informed predictions in applied conservation efforts.A ll species eventually go extinct, and biological correlates of extinction risk have been the focus of many studies of extant and extinct taxa (1-4). Most studies have analyzed biological factors separately, tacitly assuming independence among them. However, few biological characteristics are independent, and unaccounted for covariation confounds causal interpretation, weakens the power of predictive models, and inhibits successful synthesis. In addition, most studies have considered only the direct effects of biological factors on extinction. However, factors can contribute both directly and indirectly through their influence on other more proximal biological characteristics, and thus, accounting for indirect effects can be important when assessing the relative influence of multiple factors (5-7).Here, I investigate the direct and indirect effects of multiple biological factors on extinction risk using the early Cenozoic marine fossil record of the eastern United States. I focus on the contributions of abundance, body size, and geographic range size to the observed stratigraphic range (termed duration hereafter) of species. Measures of geographic range and abundance are commonly used to set conservation priorities (8), and empirical support exists for the influence of both on extinction risk over geologic time scales (9-14). Body size is also widely believed to influence extinction risk, altho...