The Mobilization of Core Supporters: Campaigns, Turnout, and Electoral Composition in United States Presidential Elections

Holbrook, Thomas M.; McClurg, Scott D.

doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00149.x

Cited by 156 publications

(104 citation statements)

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“…Eso puede ser determinante para que gane en un municipio competido. Sin embargo, la información que el electorado obtiene en las campañas es solo una parte de un ambiente más amplio en el cual deciden los electores (Holbrook y McClurg 2005).…”

Section: Conclusionesunclassified

La geografía de las campañas presidenciales en México en 2012

Palma

Morales

2014

Am. Lat. Hoy. Rev. Cienc. Soc.

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BIBLID [1130-2887 (2014) 67, 191-209] Fecha de recepción: 12 de diciembre del 2013 Fecha de aceptación: 28 de mayo del 2014 RESUMEN: La pregunta central de este artículo es ¿cómo se distribuyeron las visitas de los/as candidatos/as a la presidencia en 2012 en los municipios de México? Se muestran los resultados de una investigación acerca de los municipios, visitados por los/as candidatos/as a la presidencia en México durante la campaña de 2012, visitas que se pueden entender como parte de una estrategia terrestre. Se construyó una base de datos en la cual se registraron las visitas de cada candidato a los municipios, los cuales fueron clasificados de acuerdo a la posición electoral de cada partido. En la base de datos se registró el tema abordado en cada una de las visitas, con el fin de establecer una primera relación, a modo de hipótesis, entre el pronunciamiento de la candidata y los candidatos, y los lugares que visitaron en campaña. De tal manera, esta investigación aporta la información acerca de la relación entre las estrategias de los/as candidatos/as y la situación geográfica-territorial de sus partidos.Palabras clave: estrategia terrestre, campañas presidenciales en México en 2012, geografía electoral, municipios.ABSTRACT: This article addresses the question of how presidential candidates distributed their appearances in public in the municipalities in 2012. It shows results of a research project on the municipalities visited by the presidential candidates during the 2012 campaign in Mexico, visits that can be understood as part of a territorial strategy. We built a data base that registered the appearances of each candidate to the municipalities which were classified according to electoral , 67, 2014, pp. 191-209 position of each political party. The issue addressed by each candidate in each municipality was also registered in order to pose a hypothesis about the relation between the statement of the candidate and the places they visited during the campaign. This research provides information about the relationship between candidates' strategies and the geographical-territorial position of their parties.

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Section: Conclusionesunclassified

La geografía de las campañas presidenciales en México en 2012

Palma

Morales

2014

Am. Lat. Hoy. Rev. Cienc. Soc.

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“…Although parties state that youth are important, for the most part they have stopped grassroots mobilization of nonvoters (Shea & Green, 2007: 27). This is because party leaders' today focus on mobilizing those they know will, firstly, show up and secondly, vote for their party (Holbrook & McClurg, 2005). Youth, for the most part, lack both of these characteristics and are, therefore, not highly targeted in direct mobilization efforts.…”

Section: Explaining Youth Political Participationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Examination of U.S. Presidential Candidates and How They Mobilize Youth

Pomante¹

2017

OJPS

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It is well known that American youth, those 18 -24 years old, have abysmal turnout rates in all elections. Despite the traditional poor performance of this age group, there have been several presidential elections (1992 and 2008) where their turnout has been significantly higher than average. The objective of this research is to explore aspects of U.S. presidential candidates and their campaign activities which lead to higher rates of youth mobilization. Through an examination of newspaper articles over four presidential election cycles, the research uncovers that younger candidates who use new methods of engagement positively influence the turnout rate of youth. Elections which had the greatest levels of youth turnout had significantly younger candidates whose campaigns directly targeted youth through new means. On the other hand, the two elections with the lowest levels of youth mobilization lacked younger candidates whose campaigns failed to actively court young voters in any way.

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“…Starting from an early 'minimal effect' hypothesis (i.e., the idea that political campaigns only marginally mobilize, persuade or convert voters), the general sentiment nowadays is that campaigning does indeed have measurable effects on mobilization of (core) supporters (Holbrook and McClurg 2005;Hillygus and Jackman 2003). This mobilization, in turn, has been shown to have an effect on increasing overall turnout and on getting additional votes for a specific candidate (Holbrook and McClurg 2005;Cox and Munger 1989).…”

Section: Campaigning Mobilization and Turnout In The United Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influencing Elections with Statistics: Targeting Voters with Logistic Regression Trees

Rusch

Lee²,

Hornik

et al. 2012

SSRN Journal

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Political campaigning has become a multi-million dollar business. A substantial proportion of a campaign's budget is spent on voter mobilization, i.e., on identifying and influencing as many people as possible to vote. Based on data, campaigns use statistical tools to provide a basis for deciding who to target. While the data available is usually rich, campaigns have traditionally relied on a rather limited selection of information, often including only previous voting behavior and one or two demographical variables. Statistical procedures that are currently in use include logistic regression or standard classification tree methods like CHAID, but there is a growing interest in employing modern data mining approaches. Along the lines of this development, we propose a modern framework for voter targeting called LORET (for logistic regression trees) that employs trees (with possibly just a single root node) containing logistic regressions (with possibly just an intercept) in every leaf. Thus, they contain logistic regression and classification trees as special cases and allow for a synthesis of both techniques under one umbrella. We explore various flavors of LORET models that (a) compare the effect of using the full set of available variables against using only limited information and (b) investigate their varying effects either as regressors in the logistic model components or as partitioning variables in the tree components. To assess model performance and illustrate targeting, we apply LORET to a data set of 19,634 eligible voters from the 2004 US presidential election. We find that augmenting the standard set of variables (such as age and voting history) together with additional predictor variables (such as the household composition in terms of party affiliation and each individual's rank in the household) clearly improves predictive accuracy. We also find that LORET models based on tree induction outbeat the unpartitioned competitors. Additionally, LORET models using both partitioning variables and regressors in the resulting nodes can improve the efficiency of allocating campaign resources while still providing intelligible models.

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The Mobilization of Core Supporters: Campaigns, Turnout, and Electoral Composition in United States Presidential Elections

Cited by 156 publications

References 50 publications

La geografía de las campañas presidenciales en México en 2012

La geografía de las campañas presidenciales en México en 2012

An Examination of U.S. Presidential Candidates and How They Mobilize Youth

Influencing Elections with Statistics: Targeting Voters with Logistic Regression Trees

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