The need for a systems theory approach to road safety

Larsson, Peter; Dekker, Sidney; Tingvall, Claes

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2009.10.006

Cited by 188 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Many models such as the Swiss cheese analogy model (Reason, 1997), the Bowtie model (Hollnagel, 2008), the FSA (IMO, 2002), FTA and ETA techniques, and other models (Leveson, 2004;Van Drop et al, 2001;Li et al, 2009;Larsson et al, 2010) have been introduced or proposed by experts in the fields with no reference to or systematic analysis of empirical data. Further, many models are based on theories or concepts, for example systems theory concepts (Leveson, 2004;Laracy, 2006;Larsson et al, 2010), the Bayesian Belief Network concept (BBN) (Trucco et al, 2008;Merrick and Singh, 2003), Neural Networks (NN) concept (Hashemi et al, 1995;Le Blanc et al, 2001), fuzzy logic (Sii et al, 2001), risk-based approaches (Vanem and Skjong, 2006;Celik et al, 2010), simulation and expert judgment (Harrald et al, 1998).…”

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further, many models are based on theories or concepts, for example systems theory concepts (Leveson, 2004;Laracy, 2006;Larsson et al, 2010), the Bayesian Belief Network concept (BBN) (Trucco et al, 2008;Merrick and Singh, 2003), Neural Networks (NN) concept (Hashemi et al, 1995;Le Blanc et al, 2001), fuzzy logic (Sii et al, 2001), risk-based approaches (Vanem and Skjong, 2006;Celik et al, 2010), simulation and expert judgment (Harrald et al, 1998). Harrald et al (1998) have pointed out that a theoretical framework is of little use in an analysis unless there is relevant data to support it.…”

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

Mullai

Paulsson

2011

Accident Analysis & Prevention

106

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Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Mullai, A., & Paulsson, U. (2011). A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents. Accident; analysis and prevention, 43(4), 1590 -1603 . DOI: 10.1016 /j.aap.2011 General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.• Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.• You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. b s t r a c tThe purpose of this paper was to design a conceptual model for analysis of marine accidents. The model is grounded on large amounts of empirical data, i.e. the Swedish Maritime Administration database, which was thoroughly studied. This database contains marine accidents organized by ship and variable. The majority of variables are non-metric and some have never been analyzed because of the large number of values. Summary statistics were employed in the data analysis. In order to develop a conceptual model, the database variables were clustered into eleven main categories or constructs, which were organized according to their properties and connected with the path diagram of relationships. For demonstration purposes, one non-metric and five metric variables were selected, namely fatality, ship's properties (i.e. age, gross register tonnage, and length), number of people on board, and marine accidents. These were analyzed using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The combined prediction power of the 'ship's properties' and 'number of people on board' independent variables accounted for 65% of the variance of the fatality. The model development was largely based on the data contained in the Swedish database. However, as this database shares a number of variables in common with other databases in the region and the world, the model presented in this paper could be applied to other datasets. The model has both theoretical and practical values. Recommendations for improvements in the database are also suggested.

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Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

Mullai

Paulsson

2011

Accident Analysis & Prevention

106

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“…Sweden's Vision Zero road safety policy is cited in the scientific literature and in various programmes as an example of an innovative road safety policy (Corben, Logan, Fanciulli, Farley, & Cameron, 2010;Elvebakk & Steiro, 2009;Johansson, 2009;Larsson, Dekker, & Tingvall, 2010;OECD/ITF, 2008;World Health Organization & World Bank, 2004). In Spring 1995, work on the development of a safe system approach started within what was formerly the Swedish Road Administration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…What is widely known about and highlighted in Vision Zero are the policy's principles and the fact that it represents a radical departure from many other road safety policies worldwide -in that it envisions zero deaths as the ultimate road safety goal (Johansson, 2009;Larsson et al 2010). What is less known about the policy is its political context, and especially its development as part of Swedish democratic and parliamentary practice.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vision Zero – a road safety policy innovation

Belin

Tillgren

Vedung

2012

International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion

215

121

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The aim of this paper is to examine Sweden's Vision Zero road safety policy. In particular, the paper focuses on how safety issues were framed, which decisions were made, and what are the distinctive features of Vision Zero. The analysis reveals that the decision by the Swedish Parliament to adopt Vision Zero as Sweden's road safety policy was a radical innovation. The policy is different in kind from traditional traffic safety policy with regard to problem formulation, its view on responsibility, its requirements for the safety of road users, and the ultimate objective of road safety work. The paper briefly examines the implications of these findings for national and global road safety efforts that aspire to achieving innovative road safety policies in line with the Decade

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“…In other hazardous socio-technical systems in society, systems-theoretical assumptions are considered a promising way to better understand and manage safety (Larsson et al, 2009). In aerospace, aviation, process industry and maritime, systemic accident models that view accidents as emergent phenomena arising due to the complex interactions among components of the whole socio-technical system are currently used for the safety assessment process (Hollnagel, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Introducing the STAMP method in road tunnel safety assessment

2012

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After the tremendous accidents in European road tunnels over the past decade, many safety assessment methods have been proposed worldwide, most of them based on Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). However, QRAs based on causal chains and event modeling (i.e. fault and event trees), have been subject to strong criticism for their limitations to capture the overall risk picture of complex socio-technical systems. In such systems, human and organizational factors, software errors, design flaws and the safety culture of the system are not efficiently handled by the current QRA methods and systemic accident models have been proposed as an alternative approach to better understand and manage safety. The aim of this work is to overview the limitations of current QRAs in the road tunnels field, and to introduce a STAMPbased technique as an alternative method for establishing a proactive safety strategy and evaluating the overall safety of these critical infrastructures, with the objective to overcome the QRAs limitations. The STAMP method is applied to a case study analysis in the safety critical process of tunnel ventilation during an emergency.

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The need for a systems theory approach to road safety

Cited by 188 publications

References 4 publications

A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

Vision Zero – a road safety policy innovation

Introducing the STAMP method in road tunnel safety assessment

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