The projected impact of climate and land use change on plant diversity: An example from West Africa

Heubes, Jonathan; Schmidt, Marco; Stuch, Benjamin; Márquez, Jaime; Wittig, Rüdiger; Zizka, Georg; Thiombiano, Adjima; Sinsin, Brice; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Hahn, Karen

doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2013.04.008

Cited by 58 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…In addition to the above-cited reason for change, climate variability and overgrazing may have contributed to the change. This study did not assess the decline in tree species diversity but it is evident that climate variability has negative effects on species diversity in southern Burkina Faso and specifically in humid southern regions as pointed by Heubes et al [49] and Salvati et al [11]. Regarding fodder richness, this part of the country is well populated with cattle and small ruminant preferred tree species (ex.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Transitions in Land Use Architecture under Multiple Human Driving Forces in a Semi-Arid Zone

Ouédraogo

Mbow

Balinga³

et al. 2015

Land

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Abstract:The present study aimed to detect the main shifts in land-use architecture and assess the factors behind the changes in typical tropical semi-arid land in Burkina Faso. Three sets of time-series LANDSAT data over a 23-year period were used to detect land use changes and their underpinning drivers in multifunctional but vulnerable ecologies. Group discussions in selected villages were organized for mapping output interpretation and collection of essential drivers of change as perceived by local populations. Results revealed profound changes and transitions during the study period. During the last decade, shrub and wood savannahs exhibited high net changes (39% and −37% respectively) with a weak net positive change for cropland (only 2%,) while cropland and shrub savannah exhibited high swap (8% and 16%). This suggests that the area of cropland remained almost unchanged but was subject to relocation, wood savannah decreased drastically, and shrub savannah increased exponentially. Cropland exhibited a null net persistence while shrub and wood savannahs exhibited positive and negative net persistence (1.91 and −10.24), respectively, indicating that there is movement toward agricultural intensification and wood savannah tended to disappear to the benefit of shrub savannah. Local people are aware of the changes that have occurred and support the idea that illegal wood cutting and farming are inappropriate farming practices associated with immigration; absence of alternative cash generation sources, overgrazing and increasing demand for wood energy are driving the changes in their ecosystems. Policies that integrate restoration and conservation of natural OPEN ACCESSLand 2015, 4 561 ecosystems and promote sustainable agroforestry practices in the study zone are highly recommended.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Transitions in Land Use Architecture under Multiple Human Driving Forces in a Semi-Arid Zone

Ouédraogo

Mbow

Balinga³

et al. 2015

Land

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“…As an example, Sparovek et al (2007) also used Köppen's classification to map Brazilian climates. Although this type of analysis has been performed before for the West Africa countries, it is known that anthropogenic actions may have severe consequences on the climate characterization in this region, with a likely impact on plant diversity (Sylla et al, 2016a, b;Heubes et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate analysis for agricultural improvement of the Economic Community of West African States according to Kppen and Thornthwaite

Müller¹,

Neto²,

Timm³

et al. 2018

Afr. J. Agric. Res.

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The Economic Community of West African States (also known as ECOWAS from its name in French:Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine) is composed of eight countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. This study is restricted to ECOWAS because it stems from a survey mission headed by the second author and aims to characterize the climate of the territory as a basis for better land use by improving agricultural activities. The climate classification systems proposed by Köppen (1900) and Thornthwaite (1948) were used to carry out the study. As expected, most of the territory belonging to ECOWAS was classified as arid. With respect to the improvement of agricultural management, the climate classes found for the territory give a gross idea of the potential of each country for agricultural exploitation. The climate diversity over relatively short distances obligates detailed studies on land adaptability for growing food crops, which is in practice not made based on scientific criteria. This study shows that there is still room for an expansion of the area for agricultural purposes, and in this way, increasing food production.

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“…An average dispersal rate for the 3206 persistent species modelled is likely to be less than 1 km p.a. In this context, Heubes and colleagues [40] capped dispersal rates at 1 km p.a. to avoid unreliable future potential distributions for a biodiversity study involving 1390 plant species in Burkina Faso.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can the Iberian Floristic Diversity Withstand Near-Future Climate Change?

Heap¹,

Culham²,

Lenoir³

et al. 2014

OJE

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We assess how effectively the current network of protected areas (PAs) across the Iberian Peninsula will conserve plant diversity under near-future (2020) climate change. We computed 3267 MAXENT environmental niche models (ENMs) at 1-km spatial resolution for known Iberian plant species under two climate scenarios (1950-2000 baseline & 2020). To predict near-future species distributions across the network of Iberian and Balearics PAs, we combined projections of species' ENMs with simulations of propagule dispersal by using six scenarios of annual dispersal rates (no dispersal, 0.1 km, 0.5 km, 1 km, 2 km and unlimited). Mined PA grid cell values for each species were then analyzed. We forecast 3% overall floristic diversity richness loss by 2020. The habitat of regionally extant species will contract on average by 13.14%. Niche movement exceeds 1 km per annum for 30% of extant species. While the southerly range margin of northern plant species retracts northward at 8.9 km per decade, overall niche movement is more easterly and westerly than northerly. There is little expansion of the northern range margin of southern plant species even under unlimited dispersal. Regardless of propagule dispersal rate, altitudinal niche movement of +25 m per decade is strongest for northern species. Pyrenees flora is most vulnerable to near-future climate change with many northern plant species responding by shifting their range westerly and easterly rather than northerly. Northern humid habitats will be particularly vulnerable to near-future climate change. Andalusian National Parks will become important southern biodiversity refuges. With limited human intervention (particularly in the Pyrenees), we conclude that floristic diversity in Iberian PAs should withstand near-future climate change. * Corresponding author. M. J. Heap et al.1090

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The projected impact of climate and land use change on plant diversity: An example from West Africa

Cited by 58 publications

References 39 publications

Transitions in Land Use Architecture under Multiple Human Driving Forces in a Semi-Arid Zone

Transitions in Land Use Architecture under Multiple Human Driving Forces in a Semi-Arid Zone

Climate analysis for agricultural improvement of the Economic Community of West African States according to Kppen and Thornthwaite

Can the Iberian Floristic Diversity Withstand Near-Future Climate Change?

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