The recent Asian elephant range expansion in Yunnan, China, is associated with climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes

Abstract

Recently, the northward movement of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Yunnan, China, has attracted international attention. Climate change or human disturbances have been proposed to be the key drivers, but these hypotheses have not been rigorously tested. In this study, we quantified the relationship between climate change and human impacts on the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in southwest China. We found that the first observation probability of this species in a new place during 1959–2021 had a significant and positive association with change in air temperature and human density, resulting in a movement toward a high-latitude region with a warmer climate and higher human density; however, its association with precipitation was scale-dependent in time: positive or negative during the past 10 or 5 years, respectively. Under the enforced protection policy, human-dominated areas became preferred habitats for elephants. Our results indicate that climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes in the last few decades are significant drivers of the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in Yunnan, China. It is necessary to expand the current protected areas or habitat corridors toward the north or set up new reserves in the north and set up barriers between human settlements and elephant habitats to facilitate elephant movements and minimize human-elephant conflicts under accelerated global change.

China's wandering elephants: Integrating exceptional movements into conservation planning

“…To our knowledge, this is also the first quantitative analyses of elephant movements in China. Given the ongoing geographic expansion of the elephant population in China (Bai et al, 2022; Zhang et al, 2015) and the intense fragmentation of human‐dominated landscapes in their range (Liu et al, 2017), we encourage the use of GPS‐collar telemetry to better understand the spatial dynamics of the population. Studying movements was recently identified as one of the research priorities for elephant conservation in China (S. Chen et al, 2021).…”

“…Third, since the elephant population in China is expanding, we should expect elephants to continue dispersing into new, currently unoccupied, areas (Bai et al, 2022). It is important to anticipate these expansions and, again, define “no‐go‐areas,” where elephant recolonization is not acceptable.…”

“…Connectivity can be promoted by protecting and restoring forest corridors, even in the form of "many small patches" , and preventing the development of urban or infrastructure barriers within them. HEC mitigation in China can be approached with a combination of intense elephant monitoring outside protected areas, early-warning systems, safe behavior awareness campaigns, spatial concentration of crops, fences, and financial compensation (see S. dispersing into new, currently unoccupied, areas (Bai et al, 2022). It is important to anticipate these expansions and, again, define "no-go-areas, " where elephant recolonization is not acceptable.…”

“…Sixth, these lessons, although specific for elephant conservation in China, will become increasingly relevant to other parts of the Asian elephant range, and for the conservation of other large and conflict-prone species. The ongoing expansion of China's small Asian elephant population is associated with climate change, strict protection, and broad-scale socioeconomic changes (Bai et al, 2022). This expansion is taking place in highly developed and fragmented landscapes where close contact and intense conflict with people are inevitable.…”

Suitable habitats shifting toward human-dominated landscapes of Asian elephants in China

“…On the other hand, the extensive economic and food crops outside the reserves appeal to elephants due to ease of accessibility (Dai, 2017;Linkie et al, 2007;Meijaard & Erik, 2013). Taken together, these factors have facilitated the dispersal of elephants from relatively intact forests in reserves to human-dominated regions with agricultural land and forestry ecotones (de la Torre Climate change has also been proposed as a key driver of range changes for wildlife (Bai et al, 2022). Many studies indicate that climate change affects species distribution and behavior (Cohen et al, 2018;Dai et al, 2019;Root et al, 2003), damages ecosystems and biodiversity (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003;Sinervo et al, 2010), endangers species' survival, and increases species susceptibility to extinction (Alamgir et al, 2015;Foden et al, 2013;Mumby et al, 2019).…”