The reliability of using the gravity model for forecasting trip distribution

Duffus, Leonnie N.; Alfa, Attahiru Sule; Soliman, Afifi H.

doi:10.1007/bf00837528

Cited by 28 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…Various existing traffic forecasting methods (e.g., [29][30][31][32] can be used to generate the driving trips in an area for the agent-based model. These methods commonly require very intensive data collection and analysis.…”

Section: Appendix B: a Simple Methods For The Driving Trip Generatormentioning

confidence: 99%

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Optimizing the initial setting of complex adaptive systems–optimizing the layout of initial AFVs stations for maximizing the diffusion of AFVs

Zhao

2015

Complexity

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There are occasions when people want to optimize the initial setting of a CAS (complex adaptive system) so that it evolves in a desired direction. A CAS evolves by heterogeneous actors interacting with each other. It is difficult to describe the evolution process with an objective function. Researchers usually attempt to optimize an intervening objective function, which is supposed to help a CAS evolve in a desired direction. This article puts forward an approach to optimize the initial setting of a CAS directly (instead of through an intervening objective function) by nesting agent-based simulations in a genetic algorithm. In the approach, an initial setting of a CAS is treated as a genome, and its fitness is defined by the closeness between the simulation result and the desired evolution. We test the applicability of the proposed approach on the problem of optimizing the layout of initial AFV (alternative fuel vehicle) refueling stations to maximize the diffusion of AFVs. Computation experiments show that the initial setting generated with the approach could better induce the desired evolving result than optimizing an intervening objective function. The idea of the approach can also be applied to other decision making associated with a complex adaptive process.

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Section: Appendix B: a Simple Methods For The Driving Trip Generatormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various existing traffic forecasting methods [29][30][31][32] can be used to generate the driving routes in an area. The main purpose of this case study is not to study traffic forecasting but to find optimal layouts of initial AFV refueling stations given that the distribution of driving routes is already known.…”

Section: Driving Routes In the Agent-based Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing the initial setting of complex adaptive systems–optimizing the layout of initial AFVs stations for maximizing the diffusion of AFVs

Zhao

2015

Complexity

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“…In 1980s, data collection methods and influencing factors of tourist flows became the research emphasis for foreign scholars, and they started to use time prediction methods to forecast the spatial-temporal distribution of tourist flows [5]. Beyond that, The authors studied tourist flow from tourism-generating regions by using gravity mode [6,7]. Meanwhile, the attenuation law of tourism attraction distance was proposed, and variables such as the perceived distance, the objective distance, and travel expense, were introduced in the model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on the Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Tourist Flow in the Scenic Spots: Taking Golden Weeks as Examples

Zheng¹,

Qiu²

2017

J Tourism Hospit

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“…Si bien el modelo posee una larga tradición de empleo en el estudio de interacciones, además de caracterizar óptimamente los flujos parcialmente homogéneos, tales como migración interurbana o interregional, el modelo posee una baja robustez en cuanto respaldo teórico, incluso llegando a ser una de sus mayores debilidades, al tratarse de un modelo fijo que no toma en cuenta la temporalidad y transformación de la magnitud y dirección de los flujos (Duffus, Alfa, & Soliman, 1987;Pumain & Saint-Julien, 2001;Simini et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Aplicación del modelo gravitatorio al estudio de las migraciones internas. El caso de las comunas en las Regiones de Los Ríos y Los Lagos, Chile entre los años 1977-2012

Miranda

Jara

2018

Investig. geogr.

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La aplicación del modelo gravitatorio al estudio de flujos posee una extensa tradición en la ciencia geográfica. Este trabajo analiza la base teórica que fundamenta el modelo gravitatorio circunscrito en el concepto de interacción espacial. Posteriormente, se testea dicho modelo aplicándolo al estudio de las migraciones internas en comunas de las Regiones de los Lagos y Ríos en los periodos censales comprendidos entre 1977 y 2012. Se planteó la hipótesis que las estructuras migratorias ha sido más bien estables y circunscritas en los diferentes espacios regionales. Así, se demuestra la fiabilidad del modelo, la caracterización de efectos barreras y las relaciones preferenciales en el territorio. Finalmente, se concluye un patrón espacial que tiende a la concentración de los flujos en las capitales regionales y donde las migraciones en los últimos 20 años están circunscritas a cada espacio regional pese que la Región de Los Ríos perteneció a la de Los Lagos.

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The reliability of using the gravity model for forecasting trip distribution

Cited by 28 publications

References 1 publication

Optimizing the initial setting of complex adaptive systems–optimizing the layout of initial AFVs stations for maximizing the diffusion of AFVs

Optimizing the initial setting of complex adaptive systems–optimizing the layout of initial AFVs stations for maximizing the diffusion of AFVs

Study on the Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Tourist Flow in the Scenic Spots: Taking Golden Weeks as Examples

Aplicación del modelo gravitatorio al estudio de las migraciones internas. El caso de las comunas en las Regiones de Los Ríos y Los Lagos, Chile entre los años 1977-2012

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