The Return of the American Voter? Party Polarization and Voting Behavior, 1988 to 2004

Abstract

A frequent concern voiced by social commentators has been the persistence of mass disengagement over the past two decades-despite evidence of improving democratic involvement. In particular, since 1988, voter turnout in presidential elections has dramatically rebounded, to the point that they now rival the turnout rates of the 1960s. Yet little is known about the cause of this trend. The primary theoretical focus of the following study is to examine what factors were behind this increase in turnout, paying particular attention to the electoral relevance of increasing party polarization. Results indicate that the rise in polarization was a central driver behind the turnout boom. Changes in the electoral environment account for almost 80 percent of the total increase in voter turnout. The analysis suggests that party polarization represents a key mechanism that links citizens to the larger political process. Implications for the current state of mass engagement generally and political behavior specifically are discussed.

Preference Change through Choice

“…Despite a persistent trend towards diminishing and more flexible party affiliation among voters, partisanship across the left-right divide still holds an iron grip on the international western electorate, and has even shown evidence of further polarization in recent years. (For example, see Abramowitz & Saunders, 1998Lewis-Beck, Norpath, Jacoby & Weisberg, 2008;Bafumi & Shapiro, 2009;Carsey & Layman, 2006;and Dodson, 2010 for analysis relating to the condition in the US; and Clarke, Sanders, Stewart & Whiteley, 2009;Kitschelt, 2010;Enyedi & Deegan-Krause, 2010;and Bornschier, 2010 for the EU perspective. See also Dalton, 2009;and Cwalina, Falkowski & Newman, 2010, for cross-cultural comparisons).…”

How the Polls Can Be Both Spot On and Dead Wrong: Using Choice Blindness to Shift Political Attitudes and Voter Intentions

“…Despite a trend towards diminishing party affiliation among voters, partisanship across the left-right divide still holds a firm grip on the international Western electorate, and has even shown evidence of further polarization in recent years (e.g. see [7]–[10] for analysis relating to the condition in the US, and [11]–[13] for the EU perspective, see also [14], [15] for cross cultural comparisons).…”

Local Political Context and Polarization in the Electorate: Evidence from the 2004 Presidential Election

“…The debate continues, however, as many scholars continue to argue that polarization is a real phenomenon in the American electorate, and has important consequences (Stonecash et al 2003;Layman et al 2006;Stoker and Jennings 2008;Bafumi and Shapiro 2009;Dodsen 2010). The question of whether or not the American electorate is much more polarized now than it was in previous generations is beyond the scope of this article.…”