The rise of demand-driven climate services

Lourenço, Tiago Capela; Swart, Rob; Goosen, H.; Street, Roger

doi:10.1038/nclimate2836

Cited by 123 publications

(74 citation statements)

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“…However, they also raise the potential emergence of a conflicted decision-making policy and practice arena, now pressed to adapt in line with the more moderate levels of future climate change agreed in Paris, whilst facing the non-negligible prospects of HECC scenarios. A particularly interesting area for future debate is the presence or absence of enablers to the uptake of HECC information and its influence on climate services and other support mechanisms to practical climate action (Burch 2010;Lemos et al 2012;Capela Lourenço et al 2016;Jones et al 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

et al. 2018

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Despite the Paris Agreement target of holding global temperature increases 1.5 to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios going beyond 4°C are becoming increasingly plausible. HECC may imply increasing climate variability and extremes as well as the triggering of tipping points, posing further difficulties for adaptation. This paper compares the outcomes of four concurrent European case studies (EU, Hungary, Portugal, and Scotland) that explore the individual and institutional conditions, and the information used to underpin adaptation-related decision-making in the context of HECC. The focus is on (i) whether HECC scenarios are used in current adaptation-related decision-making processes; (ii) the role of uncertainty and how climate and non-climate information is used (or not) in these processes; and (iii) the information types (including socio-economic drivers) commonly used and their limitations in relation to HECC scenarios. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability or distant occurrence and do not routinely account for HECC scenarios within existing climate actions. Decision-makers also perceive non-climate drivers as at least as important, in many cases more important, than climate change alone. Whilst more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts is needed, climate change uncertainty is not a significant barrier to decision-making. Further understanding of individual and institutional challenges brought about by the 'squeeze' between adapting to HECC scenarios or to lower levels of temperature change (as those agreed in Paris) is essential to better contextualise the use of climate change information.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

et al. 2018

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“…Scientists and users could co-develop tools and processes for fostering the joint development of S2S predictions, with stakeholder-based modelling (Voinov and Bousquet, 2010) or co-exploration/co-production processes (Lemos and Morehouse, 2005;Meadow et al, 2015;Steynor et al, 2015) involving the user community not only as consumers but as co-producers of climate information. Climate services need to move towards a demand-driven and science-informed approach and boundary organizations will need to focus on use-inspired research (Lourenço et al, 2015). Bringing partner boundary organizations into the process for co-production, co-exploration and communication of information, including translation of scientific products into usable formats, balances the trade-offs between salience, credibility and legitimacy and increases the potential overall uptake of climate information (McNie, 2007).…”

Section: Putting the User Firstmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential applications of subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) predictions

White

Carlsen

Robertson

et al. 2017

Meteorological Applications

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While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended‐range timescale referred to as subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short‐range weather prediction and long‐range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended‐range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications‐relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision‐making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended‐range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application‐ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.

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“…The evolution of the climate services movement has been propelled by climate service providers who generate supply-driven climate information services (Lourenço et al, 2015), whereas the connections between producers and societal users often remain weak or nonexistent (Lemos et al, 2012). Furthermore, the climate data and information provided by climate services are typically not contextualized or provided in a usable format and therefore are not taken into account in decision-making (Dilling & Lemos, 2011;Meinke et al, 2006).…”

Section: The Science-practice Gapmentioning

confidence: 99%

Joint knowledge production for improved climate services: Insights from the Swedish forestry sector

et al. 2019

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Science-stakeholder collaboration is becoming an increasingly common way to address mismatches between the knowledge needs of stakeholders and the research being done by scientists. This kind of mismatch is clearly evident in the field of climate change adaptation, arguing for the design and application of user-and decision-driven, coproduced climate services. Science-based participatory processes have shown clear benefits in establishing arenas for joint knowledge production on climate change and adaptation.However, multiple challenges remain. This paper presents and discusses findings from an assessment of a participatory climate services process conducted as part of a research program on climate change adaptation in the Swedish forestry sector. We identify enablers and barriers to successful science-stakeholder collaboration and put forward recommendations for more stakeholder-driven, participatory coproduction processes. Our analysis offers insights that could help achieve more informed decision-making and policy development and ultimately climate action under the Paris Agreement.

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The rise of demand-driven climate services

Cited by 123 publications

References 1 publication

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Potential applications of subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) predictions

Joint knowledge production for improved climate services: Insights from the Swedish forestry sector

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