The Role of Mathematical Models in Vaccine Development and Public Health Decision Making

Boily, Marie‐Claude; Brisson, Marc; Mâsse, Benoı̂t; Anderson, Roy M.

doi:10.1002/9781118345313.ch32

Cited by 8 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…Our study has strengths. We used an elaborate dynamical mathematical model to capture different heterogeneities and intricacies in the non-linear transmission dynamics, thus factoring the sexual contact structure and the biology of the infection in terms of natural history, susceptibility, and transmissibility, as well as accounting for the population-level benefits of the vaccine beyond the direct benefits to vaccinated individuals [ 28 , 72 , 109 ]. The model was stratified by sex, age, and sexual activity, that not only allowed a realistic description of the epidemiology, but also facilitated investigation of the vaccine impact by sub-population prioritization.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Impact of Novel Preventive and Therapeutic HSV-2 Vaccination in the United States: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

2020

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This study aims to inform herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccine development, licensure, and implementation by delineating the population-level impact of vaccination. Mathematical models were constructed to describe the transmission dynamics in presence of prophylactic or therapeutic vaccines assuming 50% efficacy, with application to the United States. Catch-up prophylactic vaccination will reduce, by 2050, annual number of new infections by 58%, incidence rate by 60%, seroprevalence by 21%, and avert yearly as much as 350,000 infections. Number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection was only 50 by 2050, 34 by prioritizing those aged 15–19 years, 4 by prioritizing the highest sexual risk group, 43 by prioritizing women, and 47 by prioritizing men. Therapeutic vaccination of infected adults with symptomatic disease will reduce, by 2050, annual number of new infections by 12%, incidence rate by 13%, seroprevalence by 4%, and avert yearly as much as 76,000 infections. Number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection was eight by 2050, two by prioritizing those aged 15–19 years, three by prioritizing the highest sexual risk group, seven by prioritizing men, and ten by prioritizing women. HSV-2 vaccination offers an impactful and cost-effective intervention to prevent genital herpes medical and psychosexual disease burden.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Impact of Novel Preventive and Therapeutic HSV-2 Vaccination in the United States: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

2020

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“…Assessment of the population-level impact of vaccine candidates through mathematical modeling is a critical component of the process of vaccine development, value proposition, licensure, decision-making, and pathways and costs of vaccine administration, and has been utilized for a wide range of infectious diseases [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. In early stages of development, modeling is used to define the vaccine's key preferred product characteristics, by estimating levels of efficacy necessary to observe significant population-level impact, determining necessary duration of protection/immunity incurred by the vaccine, and identifying priority populations for optimal effectiveness [21,29,30]. These parameters provide early guidance to developers, manufacturers, regulators, and decision makers about candidates that are likely to be optimal through specifying vaccine characteristics that will maximize public health impact and cost-All rights reserved.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. effectiveness [21,28,29,31,32]. Once key attributes are established, modeling plays an integral role in building the case for investment in vaccine development, and in ensuring rapid roll-out post-licensing, through assessment of risks, costs, and predicted returns associated with different immunization strategies [29,33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: mathematical modeling analyses

Makhoul

Ayoub

Chemaitelly

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Lebanon * These authors contributed equally to the work. Word count: Abstract: 257 words, Main Text: 3,166 words. Number of figures: 7. Number of tables: 1. Running head: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination impact. Abstract Background: Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates are currently in the pipeline. This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development, licensure, decision-making, and implementation by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impact. Methods: Vaccination impact was assessed at various efficacies using an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, with application for China. Results: A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition ( S VE ) of ≥70% is needed to eliminate this infection. A vaccine with S VE <70% will still have a major impact, and may control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, or alternatively if supplemented with a moderate social-distancing intervention (<20% reduction in contact rate), or complemented with herd immunity. Vaccination is cost-effective. For a vaccine with S VE of 50%, number of vaccinations needed to avert one infection is only 2.4, one severe disease case is 25.5, one critical disease case is 33.2, and one death is 65.1. Gains in effectiveness are achieved by initially prioritizing those ≥60 years. Probability of a major outbreak is virtually zero with a vaccine with S VE ≥70%, regardless of number of virus introductions. Yet, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. Conclusions: Even a partially-efficacious vaccine can offer a fundamental solution to control SARS-CoV-2 infection and at high cost-effectiveness. In addition to the primary endpoint on infection acquisition, developers should assess natural history and disease progression outcomes All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

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“…Dynamic models accounting for HSV transmission allow assessment of the potential impact of a vaccine in a population beyond the direct benefits to vaccinated individuals (i.e., account for herd immunity), and allow exploration of impact across different epidemiologic contexts. 10,42 Such models can incorporate sexual contact patterns, the biology and natural history of the infection, susceptibility, transmissibility, interactions with other infections, and availability and characteristics of competing interventions, which can all vary across populations. Meeting participants discussed that there may be some limited utility for a simple static model, which assumes straightforward reductions in the per-person, age-specific incidence rates of HSV-related outcomes according to vaccine efficacy assumptions, to provide a high-level overview of the potential magnitude of costs and benefits of an HSV vaccine.…”

Section: Modelling Efforts Related To Vaccine Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These models incorporate assumptions that are defined within PPCs, such as efficacy requirements, target population, and duration of protection. In turn, modelling can help clarify the range of vaccine characteristics that can maximize the vaccine's public health impact and cost-effectiveness, 10 to refine the ideal attributes defining PPCs and the target product profile used by vaccine developers (Fig 1). Target product profiles incorporate similar characteristics as the PPCs but may differ in that they typically also consider highincome country (HIC) markets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling efforts needed to advance herpes simplex virus (HSV) vaccine development: Key findings from the World Health Organization Consultation on HSV Vaccine Impact Modelling

Gottlieb

Giersing

Boily

et al. 2019

Vaccine

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Development of a vaccine against herpes simplex virus (HSV) is an important goal for global sexual and reproductive health. In order to more precisely define the health and economic burden of HSV infection and the theoretical impact and cost-effectiveness of an HSV vaccine, in 2015 the World Health Organization convened an expert consultation meeting on HSV vaccine impact modelling. The experts reviewed existing model-based estimates and dynamic models of HSV infection to outline critical future modelling needs to inform development of a comprehensive business case and preferred product characteristics for an HSV vaccine. This article summarizes key findings and discussions from the meeting on modelling needs related to HSV burden, costs, and vaccine impact, essential data needs to carry out those models, and important model components and parameters.

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The Role of Mathematical Models in Vaccine Development and Public Health Decision Making

Cited by 8 publications

References 79 publications

Epidemiological Impact of Novel Preventive and Therapeutic HSV-2 Vaccination in the United States: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

Epidemiological Impact of Novel Preventive and Therapeutic HSV-2 Vaccination in the United States: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

Epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: mathematical modeling analyses

Modelling efforts needed to advance herpes simplex virus (HSV) vaccine development: Key findings from the World Health Organization Consultation on HSV Vaccine Impact Modelling

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