The seasonal cycle of the Arctic Ocean under climate change

Carton, James A.; Ding, Yanni; Arrigo, Kevin R.

doi:10.1002/2015gl064514

Cited by 44 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The mean seasonal range of SST in these areas is similar to the range observed at much higher latitudes such as Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay, providing these waters with year-long sub-Arctic surface temperatures. Another feature is the quasi absence of a seasonal cycle in most of the Canadian Archipelago, including Hudson Strait, Foxe Basin, Ungava Bay, the western side of Baffin Bay, and the northern Labrador shelf, consistent with model results (Carton et al 2015). Hudson Bay has a mean seasonal cycle of ∼ 6 • C-8 • C with indications that the amplitude is less in its central part and around the Belcher Islands.…”

Section: Sst Extremes and Amplitudesupporting

confidence: 71%

“…Finally, most of the Beaufort Sea coastal waters and the southern half of Amundsen Gulf are, considering their high latitude, characterized by a relatively large mean seasonal SST amplitude (∼ 6 • C-8 • C) that can reach 13 • C near the Mackenzie River mouth. This particularity of the Canadian coastal arctic is not seen in the results of the low-resolution models (Carton et al 2015), showing the importance of using high spatial-resolution data for the observation of the coastal regions. Further offshore, and despite a constantly decreasing sea ice cover in the Beaufort Sea, the SST seasonal amplitude is still very small.…”

Section: Sst Extremes and Amplitudementioning

confidence: 74%

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Canadian Coastal Seas and Great Lakes Sea Surface Temperature Climatology and Recent Trends

Larouche

Galbraith

2016

Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing

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28 years of satellite data were used to calculate sea surface temperature (SST) climatologies covering Canada's 3 surrounding oceans and the Great Lakes. Results show the imprint of major circulation features on the spatial distribution of the SST. Together with the Gulf Stream, the Labrador Current generates a strong spatial variability of SST on the east coast. Most of the Canadian Arctic, with the exception of Hudson Bay and the coastal Beaufort Sea region, is characterized by very small seasonal SST amplitude. Lake Erie is the water body having the largest seasonal SST amplitude, but for the oceanic regions, it is the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence and the adjacent Scotian Shelf. A trend analysis showed that many regions are undergoing rapid warming of the sea surface. However, warming is not spatially uniform. The strongest warming was detected in Baffin Bay and appears to result from the decreasing ice cover. Lake Superior is also showing a strong warming trend. These results have important implications for fisheries management because SST affects many species. Regions with small yearly amplitudes and warming trends might act as future cool water oases for some species. Résumé. 28 années de données satellitaires ontété utilisées afin de calculer des climatologies des températures de surface de la mer «sea surface temperature» (SST) pour les 3 océans entourant le Canada ainsi que pour les Grands Lacs. Les résultats montrent l'empreinte des principaux courants océaniques sur la distribution spatiale des SST. Avec le Gulf Stream, le courant duLabrador génère une forte variabilité spatiale des SST sur la côte est. La plupart de l'arctique canadien, avec l'exception de la Baie d'Hudson et la zone côtière de la mer de Beaufort, est caractérisé par une très faible amplitude annuelle des SST. Le lacÉrié est la masse d'eau montrant la plus grande amplitude saisonnière, mais pour les régions océaniques, ce sont le sud du Golfe du Saint-Laurent et le plateau Néo-Écossais adjacent. Une analyse de tendances a montré que plusieurs régions sont soumisesà un accroissement rapide des températures de surface. Toutefois, le réchauffement n'est pas spatialement uniforme. Le plus fort réchauffement aété détecté dans la baie de Baffin et semble reliéà la décroissance de la couverture de glace. Le lac Supérieur montre aussi une forte tendance au réchauffement. Ces résultats ont d'importantes implications pour la gestion des pêches puisque la SST affecte plusieurs espèces. Les régions ayant une faible amplitude annuelle et un faible taux de réchauffement pourraient agir dans le futur comme des oasis froides pour certaines espèces.

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Section: Sst Extremes and Amplitudesupporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Sst Extremes and Amplitudementioning

confidence: 74%

Canadian Coastal Seas and Great Lakes Sea Surface Temperature Climatology and Recent Trends

Larouche

Galbraith

2016

Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing

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“…As the decline progresses, the seasonal cycles of heat and freshwater must be altered fundamentally. What changes will occur and what their impacts will be on lower latitudes and on related systems such as biological production remain key open questions [ Carton et al ., ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The seasonal cycle is the largest signal in Arctic surface temperature with its annual swing, rivaling in magnitude the 20-308C temperature changes associated with ice age climate transitions [Alley, 2000]. It is forced by a summer-time excess of surface shortwave radiation followed by an excess of longwave and turbulent heat loss in fall through early spring [Serreze et al, 2007].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal heat and freshwater cycles in the Arctic Ocean in CMIP5 coupled models

et al. 2016

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This study examines the processes governing the seasonal response of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice to surface forcings as they appear in historical simulations of 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 coupled climate models. In both models and observations, the seasonal heat budget is dominated by a local balance between net surface heating and storage in the heat content of the ocean and in melting/freezing of sea ice. Observations suggest ocean heat storage is more important than sea ice melt, while in most of these models, sea ice melt dominates. Seasonal horizontal heat flux divergence driven by the seasonal cycle of volume transport is only important locally. In models and observations, the dominant terms in the basin‐average seasonal freshwater budget are the storages of freshwater between the ocean and sea ice, and the exchange between the two. The largest external source term is continental discharge in early summer, which is an order of magnitude smaller. The appearance of sea ice (extent and volume) and also ocean stratification in both the heat and freshwater budgets provides two links between the budgets and provides two mechanisms for feedback. One consequence of such an interaction is the fact that models with strong/weak seasonal surface heating also have strong/weak seasonal haline and temperature stratification.

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“…One of the terms neglected in deriving (2) is the heat stored in the melting‐freezing cycle of sea ice, which in turn is reflected in increments of ice thickness

δ h_{i c e}

. In ice‐covered regions, we must add a term of the form

ρ L δ h_{i c e} / Δ t

to account for seasonal heat storage in sea ice, which in the Arctic is similar in size to heat storage in the liquid ocean (Carton et al, ; Serreze et al, ). To avoid this additional complication, we have masked out ice‐covered regions in this study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved Global Net Surface Heat Flux

et al. 2018

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Surface heat flux estimates from widely used atmospheric reanalyses differ locally by 10–30 W m−2 even in time mean. Here a method is presented to help identify the errors causing these differences and to reduce these errors by exploiting hydrographic observations and the resulting temperature increments produced by an ocean reanalysis. The method is applied to improve the climatological monthly net surface heat fluxes from three atmospheric reanalyses: MERRA‐2, ERA‐Interim, and JRA‐55, during an 8 year test period 2007–2014. The results show that the time mean error, as evaluated by consistency with the ocean heat budget, is reduced to less than ±5 W m−2 over much of the subtropical and midlatitude ocean. For the global ocean, after all the corrections have been made, the 8 year mean global net surface heat imbalance has been reduced to 3.4 W m−2. A method is also presented to quantify the uncertainty in the heat flux estimates by repeating the procedure with many different atmospheric reanalyses and then examining the resulting spread in estimates. This reevaluation of net surface flux reveals, among other results, that the Southern Ocean is a source of heat to the atmosphere.

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The seasonal cycle of the Arctic Ocean under climate change

Cited by 44 publications

References 27 publications

Canadian Coastal Seas and Great Lakes Sea Surface Temperature Climatology and Recent Trends

Canadian Coastal Seas and Great Lakes Sea Surface Temperature Climatology and Recent Trends

Seasonal heat and freshwater cycles in the Arctic Ocean in CMIP5 coupled models

Improved Global Net Surface Heat Flux

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