The Social Side of Climate Change Adaptation: Reducing Conflict Risk

Abstract

In developing countries, the effects of climate change interact with factors such as underdevelopment, high dependence on natural resource-based livelihoods, inequality, weak state institutions and marginalization to increase the risk of insecurity and violent conflict. Along with sustainable development and climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation is another key entry point for addressing climate-related security risks. However, key social factors that could positively influence adaptation outcomes and ultimately mitigate climate-related security risks are often overlooked. This SIPRI Policy Brief offers insights into the importance of social capital for facilitating climate change adaptation and preventing and resolving natural resource-related communal conflict in developing countries. The policy brief recommends: (a) improving trust between communities and governments through collaborative processes for knowledge exchange, setting priorities and determining appropriate climate change adaptation practices; and (b) increasing knowledge of climate change among traditional and local leaders to strengthen local conflict resolution mechanisms.

The web of conflict-related interactions in Colombia: exploring causal linkages between ecological and social variables by the qualitative loop analysis

“…In this procedure, we applied, for the first time to our knowledge, the method that derives predicted correlations from the table of predictions of the signed digraphs, combined with a simulation in which sources of variations (inputs) were randomly assigned to each and every variable in a model. Comparing expected with observed correlations offered a realistic criterion for selecting the most reliable model among several (36) plausible structures that came out of the elicitation approach and the literature analysis. Through this procedure, we achieved the objective of shaping a plausible web of socio-ecological interactions (the first specific objective of the work).…”

“…Other pillars of the agreement comprise redistributing illegally acquired or disused land and the creation of a new registry for recording the property rights over the land across the whole country and areas with special environmental restrictions. Alongside FARC's concerns over inequality in land tenure, the agreement indicated environmental and biodiversity protection, respect for environmental and human rights and sustainable development as components of the peace process ( [36] and refs therein).…”

A review of climate security risk assessment tools

“…For example, governments with stronger capacities to deliver services and security, more inclusive political systems, and better access to international assistance are better able to peacefully navigate climatic hazards (Busby, 2022). This also applies explicitly to climate governance, where adaptation and mitigation can reduce security risks and build peace but unintended side effects of such measures can drive insecurity (Doelman et al, 2020; Dorband et al, 2019; Hegazi & Seyuba, 2022; Hunsberger et al, 2017; Steckel et al, 2021).…”

Ecosystem services and sustainable peace in Afghanistan: Gaps in national policy and its security implications

“…Recent scholarly works have called for the need to better incorporate ‘ecosystem’ impacts and risks into the design of development and peacebuilding interventions, a need for more evidence‐based research on climate‐sensitive and environmental peacebuilding and the linkages between social stability and the state's environmental sustainability (Abdenur & Tripathi, 2022; Hegazi & Seyuba, 2022). The critical role of the ‘ecosystem’ in the relationship between environmental sustainability and peaceful social dynamics at the community level is often neglected by national‐level actors; in Afghanistan, the actions of international donors and national governments continue to reflect an insufficient appreciation for environmentally sustainable actions at the local level within peacebuilding, governance decision‐making and development projects (Gouhari et al., 2021; MacDougall et al., 2013).…”