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The environmental crisis is increasing risks to security and peace worldwide, notably in countries that are already fragile. Indicators of insecurity such as the number of conflicts, the number of hungry people and military expenditure are rising; so are indicators of environmental decline, in climate change, biodiversity, pollution and other areas. In combination, the security and environmental crises are creating compound, cascading, emergent, systemic and existential risks. Without profound changes of approach by institutions of authority, risks will inevitably proliferate quickly. Environment of Peace surveys the evolving risk landscape and documents a number of developments that indicate a pathway to solutions––in international law and policy, in peacekeeping operations and among non-governmental organizations. It finds that two principal avenues need to be developed: (a) combining peace-building and environmental restoration, and (b) effectively addressing the underlying environmental issues. It also analyses the potential of existing and emerging pro-environment measures for exacerbating risks to peace and security. The findings demonstrate that only just and peaceful transitions to more sustainable practices can be effective––and show that these transitions also need to be rapid.

In developing countries, the effects of climate change interact with factors such as underdevelopment, high dependence on natural resource-based livelihoods, inequality, weak state institutions and marginalization to increase the risk of insecurity and violent conflict. Along with sustainable development and climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation is another key entry point for addressing climate-related security risks. However, key social factors that could positively influence adaptation outcomes and ultimately mitigate climate-related security risks are often overlooked. This SIPRI Policy Brief offers insights into the importance of social capital for facilitating climate change adaptation and preventing and resolving natural resource-related communal conflict in developing countries. The policy brief recommends: (a) improving trust between communities and governments through collaborative processes for knowledge exchange, setting priorities and determining appropriate climate change adaptation practices; and (b) increasing knowledge of climate change among traditional and local leaders to strengthen local conflict resolution mechanisms.

This report aims to explain and assess the contribution of WFP Ethiopia’s climate adaptation and risk management programmes to peace in Ethiopia. The research focused on the Satellite Index Insurance for Pastoralists in Ethiopia (SIIPE) programme, a multidimensional programme that aims to enhance beneficiaries’ integrated risk management capacities. The results indicate that the SIIPE programme can potentially contribute to conflict reduction and thus negative peace in the Somali region of Ethiopia through reducing herders’ mobility during droughts and improving natural resource management. They also find that there is a lack of clarity regarding the selection criteria for the programme, which proved to be a point of potential contention, and that conflict analysis and sensitivity are not incorporated into the programme’s design, since conflict reduction was not an objective of SIIPE. Based on these findings, the report makes recommendations to improve WFP’s contribution to the prospects for peace.

This research report is a product of the Environment of Peace initiative launched by SIPRI in May 2020. It sets out the evidence base that provided the foundation for Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk, a policy report published in May 2022. The report is published in four parts-Elements of a Planetary Emergency (part 1); Security Risks of Environmental Crises (part 2); Navigating a Just and Peaceful Transition (part 3); and Enabling an Environment of Peace (part 4)-as outlined below. Elements of a Planetary EmergencyPart 1 lays out the conceptual and evidential landscape for Environment of Peace, bringing together data on a wide range of indicators, showing that both security and environmental stresses are increasing. Security Risks of Environmental CrisesThis part, part 2, shows how combinations of environmental and security phenomena are generating complex risks. Through a theoretical framework informed by the literature, Cedric de Coning, Research Professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), and his team explore different pathways from environmental stress to conflict and how the darkening security horizon and environmental crises are interacting to generate different types of risk: compound, cascading, emergent, systemic and existential. The analysis is supported by numerous case studies, spanning a variety of social-ecological systems and different types of risks. This part of the report also discusses options for responding to these complex risks. Navigating a Just and Peaceful TransitionPart 3 focuses on needed transitions towards sustainability and climate resilience, with special attention given to areas such as land use, energy and climate response. Enabling an Environment of PeacePart 4 examines the legal and institutional landscape within which the twin crises-and humanity's responses to them-play out. Other related materialsSeparate annexes assemble a number of in-depth case studies and other input papers that were commissioned to inform the research and analysis of the report.